NBA Finals Game 1: Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets live updates ...

Here are a few player props that I’ve got my eye on.

Gabe Vincent: Over 2.5 threes (+130)

Vincent has been awesome this postseason. To be fair to the rest of the team, there’s a list of names you could run down and say the same thing about. But that’s beside the point. Vincent has provided plenty for the Heat in ways that aren’t only related to his defense and doing the dirty work. He’s taking the third-most shot attempts per game for Miami this season, with more than half of them coming from beyond the arc.

Vincent’s 2.4 makes per game lead the team and his ability to have high-volume, high-efficiency games are going to be important in a series like this one. His line is set at 2.5 makes, a number he’s surpassed in nearly half of the games he’s played in this postseason (8 of 17). Don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on this bet.

Nikola Jokić: Over 13.5 rebounds (+100)

Fourteen, 17, 19, 16, 17, 21, 17, 14 — any guesses on what those numbers represent? Congratulations if you guessed the above numbers as some of Jokić’s rebounding outcomes from these playoffs. Certainly, he’s capable of pulling down some ridiculous rebounding numbers, and without the presence of a lengthy 7-footer opposite him that each of the Timberwolves, Suns and Lakers presented, it feels like the glass cleaning should be even more video-game-like for the former two-time MVP. I wouldn’t say that Jokić grabbing more than 13.5 rebounds is a sure thing, but I’d take my chances and feel good about them.

Jimmy Butler: Over 1.5 steals (-165)

Speaking of feeling good about bets, here’s another you should make with confidence. We all know about “Playoff Jimmy.” Butler enters this mode, does game-changing things, and elevates his game as the stakes get higher. One of his better features is his ability to turn defense into transition points. Already 12 times this postseason Butler has finished a game with multiple steals. As the games become even more meaningful, count on Butler raising his level. Why not make this bet?

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Cole Huff

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NBA Finals betting preview: Finals MVP odds, series length and Nuggets vs. Heat Game 1 best bets

Jeff Maillet·

Senior Editor, NBA

The 2 p.m. check-in time came and went. Fifteen minutes late stretched to 30, to 45, igniting a panicked search in the men’s basketball office. Where the hell was Kyle Lowry? The prized point guard was past due at freshman orientation, and no one had heard from him.

Plenty of people had told Jay Wright not to take the Philly kid. He was too hard-headed, too difficult, more headache than joy. But the coach disagreed, seeing through the bravado to a kid who simply didn’t trust easily but was anchored by a pure heart. Plus Lowry had exactly what Wright thought was missing on his Villanova roster — just the right sort of nastiness.

Except now here was Lowry, shirking his first official Villanova duty, proving all of the doubters right. “We couldn’t find him,’’ Wright says now, 19 years after that fretful August moment, “because he was in the hospital.’’ Earlier in the day, Lowry got wind of a pickup game at a nearby Philly court and, desperate to squeeze in just a few more minutes of unchoreographed hoops before checking into the deliberate world of college ball, he decided to go play. He wound up tearing his ACL, a diagnosis most sensible people figured would bench him for the entirety of his freshman season. “We had a saying — one man with courage makes the majority,’’ Wright says. “We had that one guy that was always going to be the toughest guy on the floor, and that was Kyle. He only wanted two things — to play basketball, and to win.’’

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(Photo: Getty Images)

Dana O'Neil·

Senior Writer, CBB

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Miami Heat’s Kyle Lowry is older, wiser and still determined to kick your ass

Finally.

After the Miami Heat’s commanding win over the Boston Celtics in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals, the NBA Finals matchup is set. The Heat and the Denver Nuggets will tip off Thursday night, with the first two games at Ball Arena. More importantly, now that we know the matchup, we get to break it down for you.

As the Nuggets prepare to chase their first title in franchise history, here are some thoughts as to how they get there, fleshed out, explained and analyzed, ranging from the talents of Nikola Jokić to the coaching exploits of Erik Spoelstra and Michael Malone.

How do the Heat stop Nikola Jokić?

Simply put, they don’t. Jokić is too big, too skilled and too much in command of his offensive prowess for Miami to shut his water off. It’s next to impossible.

But are there avenues to minimizing what he does? Ironically, the best way to do so is to turn him into a 40-point scorer. Earlier in the playoffs, the Minnesota Timberwolves took a game off the Nuggets in this manner. In the second round, the Phoenix Suns took a game off the Nuggets in this manner.

That formula reads like this: Allow Jokić to score all he wants, and shut down the others. Allow him to go against single coverage and never double him. It’s a bit of rope-a-dope that you can hope pays off by the end of a game by tiring his legs out and making him a little vulnerable defensively. If Jokić has 40 points with five assists, the Heat have a chance. If Jokić has 25 points on 12 shots with 15 assists, the Heat have no chance, because that means everyone else associated with the Nuggets is involved as well.

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Tony Jones·

Staff Writer, Jazz

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In the first minute of the fourth quarter of Game 1 of the Western Conference finals, the ball found its way into Jamal Murray’s hands. With the shot clock running low, all eyes were on the Denver Nuggets guard — none more prominently than LeBron James — who had switched with Jarred Vanderbilt onto Murray after a Jeff Green screen.

Murray started to drive right on James from the top of the key to set James up for a stepback. But James was sitting on that move. By time Murray gathered and terminated his dribble, James blanketed him. There wasn’t enough time left for Murray to get rid of the ball and find a shooter. So with one foot each on either side of the 3-point line and James wearing his jersey, Murray tossed an attempt at the rim.

It swished through the net. And all James could do is drop his arms in defeat and shake his head.

James turned to Murray and gave him a thumbs up. Murray responded with two thumbs up, as if to announce he would be a problem for the entire series.

By the end of the Nuggets’ four-game sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers, the first sweep in the team’s franchise history and the first time the team had ever won the Western Conference in five tries since merging from the ABA in 1976, Murray completed one of the most efficient series in league history. He led all scorers in the series by averaging 32.5 points while shooting 52.7 percent from the field, 40.5 percent from 3 (on 37 3-point attempts) and made 19-of-20 free throws (95 percent).

It is rare to put up a 50-40-90 (50 percent from the field, 40 percent from 3, 90 percent from the free-throw line) with that level of scoring volume.

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Law Murray·

Staff Writer, Clippers

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How Jamal Murray’s historic shooting in the conference finals elevated the Nuggets

Who’s going to win the NBA title, Nikola Jokić’s Denver Nuggets or Jimmy Butler’s Miami Heat?

To answer that question, we once again turned to a panel of experts. We asked a scout, a coach and a team executive to predict the outcome of the 2023 NBA Finals, which will start Thursday in Denver. We granted our experts anonymity because their employers did not give them permission to discuss other franchises publicly. Anonymity also allowed them to be completely candid in their assessments.

Let’s acknowledge something right off the bat: The experts we spoke with for our previous articles in these playoffs have underestimated the eighth-seeded Heat. Leading into the second round, a scout, coach and executive all predicted the New York Knicks would eliminate Miami. Right before the Eastern Conference finals, all of the experts said the Boston Celtics would dispatch the Heat.

Read more here.

(Photo: Getty Images)

The Athletic NBA Staff

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NBA Finals 2023 predictions: Anonymous scout, coach, exec pick Nuggets-Heat winner

In the exciting world of live sports television viewership analysis, it’s a truism that a clinching Game 7 broadcast will generate the best audience numbers.

That again proved true with the Jimmy Butler-led Miami Heat’s 103-84 victory at Boston on Monday night, which averaged a series-best 11.9 million viewers for TNT. (TNT owner Warner Bros. Discovery later upped the final average to 12 million after final national audience data was analyzed.) Obviously, the narrative set things up: Eighth-seeded Miami shockingly went up 3-0 on the Celtics but then allowed them to tie the series before handling a fading Boston team on Monday night.

The Game 7 broadcast peaked at 14.2 million viewers, and it ended up as TNT’s third most-watched NBA game ever, the network said. It also was the fifth-best NBA game audience on cable, per Sports Media Watch, and seventh-largest non-finals viewership for the league on broadcast or cable since the current media deals began in 2002-03 (the biggest being 16 million on TNT for the Warriors’ Game 7 win over the Thunder in the 2016 Western Conference finals).

In other superlatives, it was also TNT’s most-watched Eastern Conference finals telecast, topping the 11.6 million for Heat-Pacers in 2013 (which did not include out-of-home viewership that Nielsen began tracking only in summer 2020).

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Bill Shea·

Senior Writer, Sports Business

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The Athletic Staff

(Photo: Getty Images)

The Athletic Staff

In NBA Finals history, the Game 1 winner wins the series 69.7 percent of the time (53-23).

The Athletic Staff

Players in bold won the game.

(Photo: Jed Jacobsohn / Allsport)

The Athletic Staff

Zach Harper·

Staff Writer, NBA

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Do the Heat really have a chance? Plus, EA NCAA Football memories

Jimmy Butler is first in the postseason in the following categories:

Butler by the numbers:

The Athletic Staff

Another fun future bet that BetMGM offers is which players will lead the series in specific categories. While the statistical leaders may seem predictable, that isn’t always the case. For example, were you aware that Jamal Murray has led the Nuggets in scoring in two of the first three series this postseason? Or that Bam Adebayo and Gabe Vincent led the Heat in assists per game in their Round 1 win over Milwaukee? Those questions are my way of advising all the bettors out there not to be shy about putting money down on some sleepers. Be smart about it, though.

The odds for leading scorer are close, but Nikola Jokić is a comical -10000 to lead the Finals in assists and has the same odds to lead the series in rebounds.

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Cole Huff

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NBA Finals betting preview: Finals MVP odds, series length and Nuggets vs. Heat Game 1 best bets

I want to see how the Heat employ Caleb Martin on defense. Is he going to use his length to disrupt the shooting rhythm and comfort of Jamal Murray? Or will they stick him to Michael Porter Jr., hoping to eliminate shooting space? Martin is so good at navigating screens, and Denver will put him through a maze of them.

On the flip side, I want to see if the Nuggets use Aaron Gordon on-ball against Jimmy Butler or in help. He might be the only guy who has a chance to absorb Butler’s physicality.

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Zach Harper·

Staff Writer, NBA

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The two teams couldn’t have had more opposite seasons, yet the series feels like it could go in any of several ways.

Actually predicting which way the series will go is tough to do, but perhaps recent NBA Finals results could help provide bettors a clue. Each of the last four NBA Finals’ has gone exactly six games — that’s Warriors-Celtics in ‘22, Bucks-Suns in ‘21, Lakers-Heat in ‘20 and Raptors-Warriors in ‘19. Maybe it’s all a coincidence, or maybe six games is just the new normal. Whatever the case, be sure to consider all information before placing that bet.

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Cole Huff

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NBA Finals betting preview: Finals MVP odds, series length and Nuggets vs. Heat Game 1 best bets

Favorite: Nikola Jokić (-350)

Will the Nuggets close out the most spectacular season in franchise history by capturing their first-ever Larry O’Brien Trophy? Or will Heat Culture put the final touches on the most improbable run in NBA history to bring home championship No. 4?

Your NBA Finals prediction will ultimately be the difference here between wagering on Nikola Jokić and Jimmy Butler to win the Finals MVP award. Both players earned conference final MVP honors in the lead-up to their showdown against one another beginning this Thursday, and as a result, are the two most likely to capture this year’s Finals MVP honors, according to BetMGM.

Sleeper: Caleb Martin (+4000)

And while Finals MVP talks begin with Jokić and Butler, it shouldn’t end there. Jamal Murray’s +1200 Finals MVP odds are distant enough from the two leaders to be considered longshot odds. Still, it’s hard to justify calling someone a sleeper who’s averaging over 27.0 points across 15 games this postseason. A true sleeper, both at sportsbooks and by logic, is Caleb Martin — something that simply can’t be argued following his performance in the seven-game series against the Celtics. Martin lost out on Eastern Conference Finals MVP by one vote to Butler.

Miami would have to win for Martin to get his hands on the Finals MVP trophy, but both happening is not out of the question. Andrew Wiggins had a case last year, so why not put some money down on a role player who’s playing his best basketball as a pro?

Read more here.

(Photo: USA Today)

Cole Huff

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NBA Finals betting preview: Finals MVP odds, series length and Nuggets vs. Heat Game 1 best bets

Bleacher Report’s Chris Haynes reported on Monday that Heat guard Tyler Herro could return as soon as Game 3 of the finals after missing all but 19 minutes this postseason due to a fractured hand.

Miami has clearly survived without Herro’s scoring during this playoff run, but he could become an essential piece as this series wears on.

The wear and tear of the playoffs may be getting to Jimmy Butler a bit as his minutes stack up. While Gabe Vincent and Caleb Martin have done an admirable job filling in as offensive cogs during Herro’s absence, Miami will need more options as Denver starts to figure it out.

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William Guillory·

Staff Writer, Pelicans

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Heat-Nuggets finals: Bam vs. Jokić, Denver’s size and can Tyler Herro make an impact?

“It’s not for everybody,” Udonis Haslem told The Athletic.

It can get intense. We saw that last season when Jimmy Butler and Heat coach Erik Spoelstra nearly came to blows after a heated confrontation on the sidelines.

It can be mentally draining. As Kelly Olynyk told our Jason Quick earlier this season about Spoelstra’s coaching style, “A lot of teams avoid confrontation; he runs toward it. He likes confrontation … loves it. He thinks it makes you stronger, makes you better.”

These types of emotional altercations are commonplace behind closed doors in Miami. Every now and then, they spill into the public domain. But it’s not players and coaches screaming at each other for no reason.

As Olynyk said, these clashes come with the greater goal in mind.

The environment of accountability within the Heat organization is what prevents bad habits and selfishness from festering within the team dynamic. During tough times, those fissures turn into massive chasms as the weight of the world falls on a team.

In Miami, one of the main goals is to stomp those issues out before they gain any light. That’s part of what allows them to be so calm, even when the walls seem to be caving in on them.

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William Guillory·

Staff Writer, Pelicans

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What is ‘Heat Culture’? The truth about Miami’s identity, according to those who live it