Heat vs Nuggets Game 2 Player Props: Backing MPJ on Both Ends

The NBA Finals have been the stage for many legends, but you don’t need to be a Hall of Famer or an NBA All-Star to shine in that spotlight.

NBA Finals odds make every play memorable, as you can wager on just about anything for anyone.

With the Miami Heat trying to even the series with the Denver Nuggets tonight, I scour the NBA player prop odds for Game 2 and give you my best NBA Finals prop picks for June 4.

You can also check out our full Heat vs. Nuggets Game 2 picks and predictions. 

Heat vs Nuggets Game 2 player prop picks Porter Jr. Over 15.5 points Porter Jr. Over 0.5 blocks Gordon Over 2.5 assists

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Heat vs Nuggets Game 2 props Jump on Junior

One of my favorite bets from Game 1 was on Michael Porter Jr. to go Over his points prop of 15.5. And it looked like the Nuggets’ small forward was en route to an Over with 14 points entering the fourth quarter. He would then go 0-for-4 from the field in less than nine minutes of floor time and lay a goose egg in the final frame.

Final: 14 points. Winner: Under. Me: BARF!

Porter Jr.’s Game 1 result has his points prop for Game 2 at the same number, but the Over is providing a little more pop, out there at -105. With the bulk of player projections calling for 16 or more points from MPJ tonight — with some as high as 20 points — and my number coming out to 17.5, I’m back on the discounted Over.

As we talked about in Game 1’s picks piece, Porter Jr. is a matchup nightmare for the Miami Heat. At 6-foot-10 and with the ability to shoot from outside or put the ball on the ground, Porter Jr. can exploit smaller defenders and blow past bigger ones.

He shot the ball 16 times in the series opener, which was the second-most field goal attempts for a Denver Nuggets player in Game 1, and while Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra will make adjustments to his defense in Game 2, the Heat are just missing the piece to solve the MPJ puzzle.

According to BetMGM, this is the most popular prop bet for Game 2 which may be reason for some to pause. "Fade the public" be damned. I'm not passing up on that gap in projections.

Shop around for the lower price on this prop. It opened with the Over 15.5 points discounted but has since seen the vig on that side of the prop getting pumped up to as juicy as -130 at some shops. 

Michael Porter Jr. Prop: Over 15.5 points (-105)

Call the S.W.A.T. team

The difference maker on both ends of the floor in Game 1 was Denver’s size advantage. The beefy Nuggets played bully ball on offense on many possessions and finished with a collective four blocks and countless changed shots on defense.

Porter Jr. walked away with two of those swats and could have had more honestly, with the lanky 6-foot-10 forward just missing the ball when flying across on weakside help and getting a hand in the face of outside shooters.

Porter Jr.’s block prop is sitting at half a block for Game 1, essentially a Yes/No option, with the Over paying out at +110.

Porter Jr. isn’t known for his defensive prowess by any means and averaged exactly 0.5 blocks per game in the regular season. In the playoffs, he’s upped that to 0.7 after recording at least one block in the past two games.

It’s the mismatch in size that makes the Over 0.5 live, with Porter Jr. drawing shorter matchups like Caleb Martin, Jimmy Butler, and Miami’s backcourt on the defensive end.

Player projections are all above 0.5 blocks for Game 2 with some calling for one whole block from MPJ and my number coming out at 0.67. Tag that +110 price for the Over onto this prop and it’s a great +EV play and an advantageous assignment for Porter Jr.

Michael Porter Jr. Prop: Over 0.5 blocks (+110)

“Pass” Gordon

Aaron Gordon rag-dolled the Miami defense in Game 1, routinely finding himself matched up with much smaller defenders around the basket.

With Bam Adebayo tethered to Nikola Jokic and Jimmy Butler finding himself switching on smaller guards on the perimeter, Gordon was left alone to back down those bad switches for multiple buckets right under the hoop.

Gordon’s ability to muscle his way inside led to 16 points from the Denver power forward and only one assist. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra needs his team to be more mindful of those mismatches created by switching in haste, and I expect Gordon not to have that size edge as much in Game 2.

Miami has to do something different in its approach tonight, and I expect more doubles on Jokic and some mixes of zone to try and stop the bleeding inside after surrendering 46 points in the paint.

Gordon showed passing prowess in the previous series with the Lakers, averaging 3.5 assists in the four-game sweep of Los Angeles. He was somewhat left in space as L.A. directed focus on Jokic and Gordon emerged as a point forward on plenty of trips down the floor.

His assist total for Game 2 is at 2.5 dimes with the Over sitting as ripe as +112. Gordon’s player projections are all north of 2.5 assists with the bulk calling for three or more dimes.

My number for Gordon’s helpers sits just on the other side of three and I’ll snatch up the positive expected value on this Game 2 player prop.

Aaron Gordon Prop: Over 2.5 assists (+112)

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