Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets Game 1 odds, picks and predictions

Whether we’re sizing up seeding, rest and home court, or just top-to-bottom roster matchups, the Denver Nuggets are the oddsmakers’ overwhelming choice to win the 2023 NBA Finals.

NBA odds have installed Denver as a hefty favorite to win the title, and is an 8.5-point home chalk against the Miami Heat in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night.

All of that means squat to the defiant No. 8 seed.

Miami brings plenty of momentum into the series opener, having eliminated the top two teams in the Eastern Conference and the No. 5 team, en route to an improbable spot in the title round.

However, while Denver comes into this matchup fresh as the Rocky Mountain air, Miami has had just two days respite after an emotionally and physically taxing seven-game set in the Eastern Conference finals.

I break down the point spread and Over/Under total for Game 1 of the NBA Finals and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Heat at Nuggets on June 1.

Heat vs Nuggets Game 1 odds Heat vs Nuggets Game 1 predictions

If you read my NBA Finals betting preview, you’ll see that I’ve tagged Michael Porter Jr. as the X-factor for the Nuggets.

The versatile 6-foot-10 forward is a nightmare for Miami, which has a bunch of square pegs to fit into the round hole that is MPJ. The Heat have to keep Bam Adebayo on Nikola Jokic, which leaves them nothing but bad matchups against Porter Jr.

Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra has a starting frontcourt of Adebayo, 6-foot-7 Jimmy Butler, and 6-foot-5 forward Caleb Martin, along with reserve bigs Kevin Love and Cody Zeller, who were defensive liabilities in the final games with Boston to the point where they just didn’t play.

Butler, being the second-tallest starter, could draw Porter Jr. but will likely switch between he and Denver forward Aaron Gordon, who stands 6-foot-8 but plays more like a power forward around the key. Martin will spend plenty of minutes marking Porter Jr., as the Heat will be resilient to switch Bam off Jokic, and that allows the lanky MPJ to shoot over diminutive defenders.

If Miami does march out Love or Zeller, the two lumbering bigs lack the foot speed to contain Porter Jr. off the dribble. Adebayo will be hesitant to leave Jokic on the help side, leaving Porter with a clear path to the basket. Whether he finishes there or not is another issue.

As talented and promising as Porter Jr. is, he’s softer than a fresh bag of marshmallows — the expensive kind, not the Dollar Store brand. Even at 6-foot-10, he seems to shrink inside the key and looks to pass off in opportunities from close range.

He’s struggled to be a consistent threat for the Nuggets, but found his flow against the Lakers in the Western Conference finals. Porter Jr. averaged a steady 15 points per game in that four-game series, seeing a notable uptick in his production from beyond the arc in the final two outings in L.A., in which he was 7-for-20 on 3-point attempts.

The Game 1 player projections expect Porter Jr. to take advantage of those mismatches with Miami, with my number sitting above 17 points and some models setting the ceiling at 20-plus in the series opener. That has us grabbing the Over on his points prop in Game 1, with oddsmakers setting his forecasted scoring mark at 15.5 points (Over -105).

Looking at his past matchups with the Heat, Porter Jr. had outputs of 17 points and 10 points in two meetings this season (the 17 coming with Gordon and Jamal Murray sidelined), shooting a collective 10 for 19 from the field in those contests. He didn’t face the Heat in an injury-shortened 2021-22 campaign but did drop 25 and 17 points on Spoelstra’s defense in two games in 2020-21.

My best bet: Michael Porter Jr. Over 15.5 points (-105)

Heat vs Nuggets Game 1 same-game parlay

The 6-foot-10 Porter Jr. can either shoot over smaller defenders or blow by bigger ones. He’ll hit some 3-pointers and get easy buckets inside, with my number calling for 17.2 points in Game 1.

His frontcourt mate Gordon also has some positive projections Thursday. My forecast calls for 15.4 points and 3.2 assists, but some models are calling for as many as 22.6 combo stats, which has us going Over his points/assists prop of 15.5.

As for the Heat, we’re expecting Martin to cool off after a red-hot showing against Boston. Martin’s point prop has ticked up as high as 16.5 points, but his projections for Game 1 all come in at least two points shy of that mark with my number at 12.5 points Thursday night. He’s been especially sharp from beyond the arc (8-for-14 last two games) but regression and a tight Denver perimeter defense will keep him Under this inflated total.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Heat vs Nuggets betting trend to know

The Denver Nuggets are 16-4 SU and 13-6-1 ATS (67.5%) when playing of three or more days rest this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Nuggets.

Heat vs Nuggets Game 1 game info Heat vs Nuggets Game 1 key injuries

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