How Raptors can solve Bulls' elite defence in NBA play-in game

When the Toronto Raptors host the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday night, they won’t be tangling with a foe that looks intimidating on the surface.

The Bulls bring an unimpressive 40-42 record to the NBA play-in tournament and have a road winning percentage of just .439. Although those numbers make it clear that Chicago is no juggernaut, the Bulls present a very specific challenge for Toronto because they possess a defence that is nothing short of elite.

Since the beginning of 2023, Chicago has the best defensive rating in the NBA (110.3), and its season-long number (111.5) ranks fifth.

The Raptors may feel good about their chances of bottling up the Bulls offence – particularly old friend DeMar DeRozan, who has averaged just 14 points in three games against them this season – but if they can’t solve Chicago’s defence to some degree, their season will come to an early conclusion.

In most cases, when an NBA team excels either offensively or defensively, it’s intuitive based on the personnel it has on hand.

As long as the Milwaukee Bucks feature Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez, they’re going to get plenty of stops. Similarly, the Denver Nuggets won’t have to worry about getting buckets as long as Nikola Jokic has the keys to their offence.

These Bulls are a little different as a team built around DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic doesn’t have “defensive juggernaut” written all over it. While all of those players are best known for their offensive contributions, Chicago’s supporting cast is full of defensive specialists.

Below is a list of the other seven players in the Bulls rotation and how much of their Win Shares they’ve accumulated on defence this season:

Win Shares aren’t a perfect metric by any means, but they make for fine shorthand on player value, and it's clear the Bulls are loaded with defensive-minded guys beyond their three biggest names.

It’s not unusual for role players to focus on defence, but not to this extent. For example, beyond the Raptors’ top-three minute-getters this season – Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and Scottie Barnes — they have a number of offensively-oriented contributors like Chris Boucher, Jakob Poeltl, and Gary Trent Jr.

Chicago’s deep roster of defence-first players excels in a couple of key areas. The team does an outstanding job of cleaning the defensive glass, ranking third in the NBA in defensive rebounding rate (73.6%) and allowing the second-fewest second-chance points per game (11.9).

The Bulls, much like the Raptors, are also all over the hustle leaderboards. They rank fourth in the league in deflections per game, and first in defensive loose-ball recovery rate (53.7%). Chicago also refuses to concede easy looks from long range, contesting more 3-pointers than any other team (20.9 per game).

These numbers paint the picture of a unit infused with hard-nosed players focused on defence who don’t give up easy opportunities lightly and fight for every ball. Chicago’s aggressiveness on that end of the floor is controlled, though, as the team concedes the NBA’s fifth-lowest opponent free-throw attempt rate (0.253).

As effective as the Bulls defence has been, it's not without its limitations.

Chicago does an excellent job limiting its opponents' opportunities by preventing second-chance possessions, forcing turnovers and avoiding free throws, but on a possession-to-possession basis the team is far more vulnerable than its overall statistics suggest.

The Bulls’ effective field-goal percentage against of 54.4 percent ranks 17th in the NBA. When their opponents get shots off they can have success. That’s especially true at the basket, as Chicago concedes the 11th-highest field-goal percentage in the league within five feet of the rim (64.9%).

Vucevic, in particular, is exploitable down low as shots he contests within six feet of the basket have fallen at a 66.9 percent clip. The Bulls' starting centre simply doesn’t provide much of a deterrent at the bucket as the 32-year-old’s 0.7 blocks per game this season are tied for a career-low.

His presence on the team, along with primary backup Andre Drummond, cements the Bulls' status as a drop defence with limited switchability. From a philosophical standpoint that’s no guarantee of failure — the regular-season success speaks for itself — but defences like that are usually built around big men that are better at defending drives to the hoop.

The Bulls sacrifice flexibility without getting nearly as many blocks and tough contests as drop defences like the Bucks.

The Raptors have a tough defence to contend with in Wednesday's NBA play-in game. (John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports)

Toronto averaged just 104.7 points in three matchups with Chicago this season, but the Raptors were missing Siakam and hadn’t acquired Poeltl yet in two of those games.

In their Feb. 28 game they put up 104 points and leaned on an uncharacteristic 3-point barrage, shooting 42 times from beyond the arc.

That strategy wasn’t particularly effective, as it played into the Bulls’ strengths. Chicago’s best defenders are its guards — particularly its starting duo of Caruso and Beverley — so continually testing its perimeter defence is an unlikely path to a gaudy points total.

If the Raptors want to go at Caruso and Beverley, trying to outmuscle them on drives seems like a more fruitful route as each veteran is listed below 190 pounds, while the Raptors have plenty of bigger, stronger wings at their disposal. This also looks like a game where Poeltl can shine as the Austrian has three inches on Vucevic and knows how to attack the rim efficiently.

To some degree, Toronto will have to go strength vs. strength, though. Chicago may excel at turning opponents over, but the Raptors have the lowest team turnover rate in the NBA. The Bulls are strong on the defensive glass, but Toronto ranks second in the league in offensive rebounds per game.

Chicago is excellent at limiting the number of chances it gives its opponents to score, but winning the possession battle is arguably what the Raptors do best. Toronto may have to beat the Bulls at their own game on Wednesday, but it’s a game this team is well-equipped to play.