OKC Thunder Second-Round Playoff Preview Against The Dallas ...

DALLAS, TEXAS - FEBRUARY 10: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder is defended by ... [+] Daniel Gafford #21 of the Dallas Mavericks during the first half at American Airlines Center on February 10, 2024 in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images)

As Oklahoma City Thunder fans flood into Paycom Center tonight, a Round 2 series against the Dallas Mavericks is set to take place. After becoming the youngest team in NBA history to win a playoff series, the Thunder will be playing a second-round series in front of its home crowd in OKC for the first time since 2016.

Given Oklahoma City swept the New Orleans Pelicans in the opening round, this will be just the third home game of the playoffs for the Thunder. It’s important that this young team gets off to a hot start in this series, as the Mavericks have the star talent to take advantage of inexperience.

While these teams played four times this season — with OKC coming out on top in three of them — those contests don’t provide much context into how these two teams might match up in this series. For starters, Dallas has a completely different rotation than it did for the first two games in the season following a pair of trades at the deadline.

Furthermore, one of the two matchups following those acquisitions came on the last day of the regular season when the Mavericks sat nearly every rotational piece. Dallas defeated the Thunder by 35 in the one contest in which both squads were close to fully healthy, but it was the first contest following the NBA All-Star break and was an unorthodox game.

As such, there’s much uncertainty as the Thunder and Mavericks kick off a seven-game series. Even then, there are still projections that can be made based on team trends and how the individual players have fared against other competition during the final stretch of the regular season and into the playoffs.

As this series unfolds, what are some of the key factors that could ultimately make the difference in who comes out on top?

Health of Luka Doncic

Throughout the Mavericks’ first-round series against the LA Clippers, Luka Doncic was playing through a knee injury. While he was able to take the floor in all six contests, he didn’t look like himself. Doncic averaged 29.8 points per game, but shot just 40.5% from the floor and 23.9% from beyond the arc.

Luckily in that series, Kyrie Irving was able to take over and score an extremely efficient 26.5 points per contest on 51.4/44.9/85.2 splits. In this Round 2 series against the Thunder, the health of Doncic and how his knee feels will play a significant role. If he gets back to his typical scoring efficiency while Irving maintains his level of play, this could be a long series for the Thunder defense.

Center Rotations

Unlike Oklahoma City’s opening matchup against the Pelicans, the Mavericks have quite a few options at center. New Orleans was essentially limited to playing big with Jonas Valanciunas or small with Larry Nance Jr. at this position throughout the series. Although Dallas will be without Maxi Kleber due to injury, the Mavericks have a dynamic rotation of bigs featuring Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II, along with Dwight Powell.

If those more traditional centers for whatever reason aren’t working in this matchup or the Mavs need to shake things up in the flow of a game, don’t be surprised to see quite a bit of PJ Washington at center in small-ball lineups. Furthermore, Markieff Morris hasn’t been in the regular rotation but is another option for Mavericks coach Jason Kidd to work with.

For Oklahoma City, Chet Holmgren will play a significant role as the primary center, but the team will also have to be strategic in who else plays in that spot alongside or behind him. Jaylin Williams proved to be a quality contributor in the opening round with his size, physicality and floor spacing, but in this matchup against Dallas, Kenrich Williams could be called upon after not playing much against New Orleans. Thunder coach Mark Daigneault also has Mike Muscala and Bismack Biyombo rounding out center options off the bench.

Pick and Roll Success

Like many of the best teams in the NBA, both of these squads have the pieces to be effective in pick and roll scenarios on the offensive end. Whether it’s Doncic or Irving with the ball in their hands, Lively and Gafford are both solid screeners and vertical spacers who pose a lob threat. Oklahoma City’s ability to defend the pick and roll and fight through screens in general will be crucial in this series. Not only does the Thunder have to defend the roller, but also the guard initiator.

On the other side of the floor, the Thunder has seen success with both Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Joe as screeners in the pick and roll. They’re both effective in popping rather than rolling, which forces the defense to either commit to the handler — generally Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Jalen Williams — or allow a quality 3-point shooter to get an open look on the perimeter. Holmgren’s effectiveness popping after screening for a guard was a huge reason that the Pelicans had to go small at center in Round 1.

The winner of this series will move on to play either the Denver Nuggets or Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals, depending on who comes out on top in that series. In the meantime, expect this series between the Thunder and Mavericks to be one of the most entertaining across the league over the next two weeks.