Canelo Alvarez Vs. Jaime Munguia: Odds, Records, Prediction

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - SEPTEMBER 30: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez of Mexico (purple/gold trunks) trades ... [+] punches with Jermell Charlo (black trunks) during their super middleweight title fight at T-Mobile Arena on September 30, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

The annual Cinco de Mayo weekend showdown featuring Canelo Alvarez on Saturday night probably won’t affect his legacy. He’s already a first-ballot Hall of Famer with enough earned money to last several generations. But he’s still hungry to add to his resume by defending his undisputed super middleweight championship, and at the same time, he’s looking to deny Jaime Munguia what would be the most monumental win of his own career. Here’s everything you need to know about Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.

We’ve gotten to the point in Alvarez’s career where observers are wondering when (or if) he’ll begin a career decline. Although he didn’t look great in his loss to Dmitry Bivol in 2022, Alvarez has looked strong lately in beating Gennadiy Golovkin in their third meeting, John Ryder and Jermell Charlo.

But Munguia is younger than all three of those opponents and maybe stronger than everybody except Golovkin, and you have to wonder what will happen if Munguia lands a clean shot on Alvarez’s chin.

“Canelo is going to come out guns blazing, but there's a changing of the guard in every era. I think that this is the perfect scenario for Jaime Munguia to take over,” said Oscar De La Hoya, Munguia’s current and Alvarez’s former promoter. “Jaime is ready to go. He's faced every adversary and every style. Whether they brawl or box, he's taken them out . . . Jaime has the youth, the punch output and the chin. I see all the cards stacked against Canelo.”

But there’s a reason Munguia is the underdog. He’s never faced anybody remotely as good as Alvarez, and as Sergiy Derevyanchenko has proven, he can be hurt by a powerful punch (and Derevyanchenko isn’t exactly known as a big puncher). Alvarez likely won’t overwhelm Munguia with pressure (and Munguia will likely be aggressive, anyway), but Alvarez certainly has a way of chopping down on his opponents until they give way.

Still, Alvarez will have to be wary of Munguia’s talent.

“Munguia is a disciplined fighter who hits hard,” Alvarez said. “He’s a power puncher, and I like a challenge. I want to face fighters who are hungry like I am. He’s a fighter who can give the fans the show they deserve.”

Those who are expecting an all-action fight, though, might not get what they want. Alvarez is more economical with his punches, and despite Munguia’s defensive liabilities, Alvarez will probably take his time with his Mexican counterpart. This could be a brawl, but it’s more likely to be a patient dissection.

“The sober prediction here is a thoughtful, cerebral Alvarez decision,” said Hall of Fame broadcast Jim Lampley, who will co-host a live viewer chat in real time during PPV.com’s live stream of Saturday’s card. “But while there are still some chinks in Jaime Munguia’s armor, he does have armor. An upset isn’t out of the question.”

Here’s more info on the Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on PPV.com for $89.99 beginning at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday.

PHOENIX, ARIZONA - JANUARY 27: Jaime Munguia of Mexico reacts after knocking down John Ryder of ... [+] Great Britain during the WBC silver super middleweight title fight at Footprint Center on January 27, 2024 in Phoenix, Arizona. Munguia defeated Ryder by technical knockout. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Alvarez is the solid favorite at -550 (bet $550 to win $100), but those odds have narrowed a bit (originally, Alvarez was -600). Munguia is the +375 underdog (win $375 on a $100 wager), and it wouldn’t be outlandish for you to take his money line (especially if you think Munguia would beat Alvarez more than twice if they fought 10 times). The most likely outcome is Alvarez to win by decision at -110, but if you like Munguia, I’d take him to win by decision at +700. If you’re hungry to pick Alvarez to win by stoppage, taking him to accomplish that in rounds 7-12 is +333.

If you were looking for a fun parlay for this weekend’s action of boxing (and this is only for entertainment purposes), I might take Alvarez to beat Munguia by decision at -110 and Brandon Figueroa to stop Jessie Magdaleno at -300. If both of those hit, you’d win $155 on a $100 bet.

Aside from David Benavidez, Munguia represents the biggest threat to Alvarez (60-2-2, 29 KOs) of any other 168-pounder (and Benavidez is for 175 pounds anyway). Alvarez has cleaned out the super middleweight division by beating Callum Smith, Billy Joe Saunders and Caleb Plant for their belts. But he hasn’t scored a stoppage in his last four fights, so you have to wonder how his power will affect Munguia.

Although he’s only 27, Munguia has an experienced veteran’s record of 43-0 (34 KOs). He’s coming off two of the best victories of his career: a close unanimous decision against Derevyanchenko that was the BWAA’s fight of the year for 2023 and a ninth-round destruction of John Ryder.

It’ll be fascinating to see how Munguia’s aggression works against Alvarez’s counterpunching. It’ll also be interesting to see if Alvarez, whose chin is fantastic, will be bothered by Munguia’s power and to see whether Munguia can stand up to clean shots from Alvarez’s fists. Ultimately, Alvarez might score a couple of knockdowns, but I’m not sure he’ll stop Munguia. Instead, say Alvarez by decision, somewhere in the 117-111 range.