Opinion: Buffalo Bills fans overreacting about the trade with Kansas ...

In the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills traded out of their initial pick at 28. As if fans weren’t angry enough about staying up late and having their gratification delayed, many were up in arms that the Bills traded with Kansas City, allowing Patrick Mahomes and company to get their preferred weapon.

While I think this does have some potential to blow up on Buffalo, the trade with Kansas City was fine. More than fine really. Let’s discuss further...

Didn’t the Bills gift Kansas City Xavier Worthy?

No.

You probably want a longer explanation, so let’s explore this from two perspectives. We’ll look at what general manager Brandon Beane knew at the time of the trade and what we know now that the Round 1 dust has settled.

What did Brandon Beane know at pick 28?

First and foremost, what Brandon Beane knew at the time was that no one on their board had a grade justifying the use of pick 28. More on that below. It’s this fact and this fact alone that has the potential to blow up on Beane, because he might be wrong. We won’t know for awhile though. I’ll further add that Beane likely already knew he was going to try and trade out of the first round entirely.

Beane would have known that KC saw someone they really liked and there was a potential that person would make the team quite a bit better. He would also know that the Chiefs were picking only a few selections later and that potential player may still be on the board regardless of the trade.

It was also known at the time that several wide receivers with first-round grades were still left (assuming Beane knew KC wanted a receiver). Based on whose list you use, it’s possible there were more receivers with first-round grades at the time than first-round picks left. It’s also highly unlikely that Dallas, Baltimore, and San Francisco would all take a wide receiver. If Beane was unsure what position KC wanted, there are similar arguments for other positions.

Even more pertinent, if KC was calling Buffalo for a trade and Buffalo declined, you can guarantee the phones at Dallas’ draft HQ would have blown up, followed by Baltimore if necessary, etc.

Add it all up and at the time of the trade, Buffalo knew that KC was going to have several options for the player they wanted and there was a high likelihood that even without Buffalo making the trade, KC was going to end up with their guy anyway.

What do we know now?

This is more addition to the above, but we know now that the Cowboys picked offensive tackle Tyler Guyton right after the trade. If Buffalo doesn’t pull the trigger on the trade, it’s reasonable to think Dallas would have. I’m not in the room when these calls are happening, but I have to imagine there’s some discourse that might give hints on target. If the Cowboys were sold on Guyton they might risk a few spots, but only if they know the team they’re trading with is not picking their player.

Similarly, the Ravens picked cornerback Nate Wiggins. Would they have risked Wiggins to the 49ers to gain some extra draft capital? I don’t doubt for a second that they may have done exactly that.

What about San Francisco? They apparently had a first-round grade on wide receiver Ricky Pearsall? It could be that Pearsall was their guy all along. It’s also possible they had more than one first-round grade on receivers left. If the 49ers had more than one first-round grade left it’s possible they’d have traded with Kansas City too. Similarly, it’s possible KC had more than one target left with a first-round grade.

The short version is that based on what we know now, it’s very likely that KC ends up with Xavier Worthy regardless of Buffalo’s actions. The trade with Buffalo was not the only option for Worthy to land with the Chiefs and based on the moves afterward it seems more likely than not Worthy was ending up in KC no matter what Buffalo did.

Yeah, but it was WORTHY?

KC has their next Tyreek Hill! Do you remember what they did with Hill on their team Skare? Of course I do. They also won the last two Super Bowls without Hill so I don’t really care about that argument personally. Kansas City was a great team before landing Xavier Worthy, and there’s no reason to think that they would fall off a cliff without Worthy.

I mean, seriously, is there any player you can think of that can realistically bring KC to “the next level?” They are the next level. Landing an elite player can’t even move the needle because it’s been buried at the top of the gauge for awhile now. I also remember Marquise Goodwin (and other speedy receivers). Not every player pans out like you think they will.

For the sake of argument, there will be a player picked after Worthy that KC had a shot at who will have a fantastic career. An elite tackle to protect Mahomes, a dominant defender to play complementary football, a tight end to be Kelce’s successor, etc. Sure, they landed Worthy but there are multiple ways to improve a team that would have similar value. So yes, they landed Worthy but KC was landing a player with potential there regardless of which one was “their guy.”

Yeah, but we hate them

Naturally.

However, trading with them is as close to “sticking it to ‘em” in the draft that Buffalo could have managed. I repeat:

Nothing Buffalo could have done at that point would have prevented Kansas City from landing Xavier Worthy. It’s possible not trading could have led to another team taking him but it’s hardly a guarantee, especially with how things actually played out.

The Bills therefore made the Chiefs pay for the privilege of landing Worthy at the highest cost Buffalo was capable of forcing. The Bills made KC give up extra for a player that almost surely would have cost them less if Buffalo held out.

Let me revisit a point above though. There is one thing and one thing only Buffalo could have done to prevent Worthy from falling to KC. They could have drafted him. As we can see from Brandon Beane’s actions, they felt the value wasn’t there.

In other words, the only way for Buffalo to have prevented Kansas City from drafting Xavier Worthy was for the Bills to select a player they didn’t really want. You can argue that maybe they want him, just not at that price. That’s fair, but it reinforces the argument. Buffalo felt their value was better later in the draft. They got their way and ended up with some extra capital while they were at it.

Who won the trade then?

This is the crux of why fans are angry. It feels like the Kansas City Chiefs won right? They got what they wanted. Again. That’s true. But look above. You know who else got what they wanted? The Buffalo Bills. They didn’t overpay for a player they were lukewarm on and have some extra resources to move up and down for guys they feel are better matches. I know it feels like they left Round 1 with everything and we left with nothing, but the reality is both sides got what they wanted.

Ultimately though we should remember it’s the draft. The beginning of these stories, not the end. As of right now Xavier Worthy represents potential. The currently unused Bills’ selections represent the same.