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The Toronto Blue Jays continue their homestand tonight against the New York Yankees.

The pregame narrative: The Yankees announced that Jimmy Cordero will open for Jhony Brito tonight, as Alek Manoah throws for Toronto. Given the strength of the Yankees’ bullpen and the success that Manoah has had against New York, we’re riding with the under.

Check out our Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks and odds for May 15.

MLB odds as of 12:20 p.m. ET on 05/15/23.

Best Bet : Under 9.5 runs (-122)

Considering that this is a heftier-than-usual run total, it might seem surprising that only half of Manoah’s eight starts have gone under it this year. But that’s just how things are going for the big righty.

Still, he seems to always find his groove against the Yankees. He tossed seven scoreless innings in a 3-2 loss against New York last month, and we think he’ll help contribute to a low-scoring matchup tonight.

In a hearty 105-plate appearance sample against current Yankees hitters, Manoah has held the lineup to a .155 batting average and a .205 wOBA. He also has a 26.7% K-rate against the Yankees, which is notably higher than his career rate (23.6%).

New York will use Cordero in an opener role tonight, and only three Blue Jays have ever seen him before. None of them have faced Brito.

If Cordero (3-1, 2.81 ERA) eats an inning or two against the top of the Jays’ lineup, that will provide Brito with a softer landing when he enters the game.

Brito (2-3, 5.81 ERA) isn’t off to a great rookie campaign, but his blowups have been limited. In six of his eight starts, he’s allowed three or fewer runs. Also, under 9.5 runs have been scored in six of his eight starts.

After Brito, the Yankees will get into a bullpen that ranks fourth in the majors in ERA (3.20). That group should really help our cause.

Key stat: Including a three-game series this year, the Yankees and Blue Jays have gone under 9.5 runs in eight of their past nine matchups.

Under 0.5 runs - first inning (+107) : Manoah has faced the Yankees seven times, and he’s held them scoreless in the first inning six times. If he holds up his end of the bargain again, we’re halfway home.

On the other side, we’re flying a bit blind with Cordero. He has never opened in his career.

George Springer is 0-for-2 against Cordero in his career, while Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and have never faced the righty. We’re hoping that unfamiliarity works in our favour tonight.

Also, 10 of Cordero’s 15 outings this year have been scoreless.

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