Will Aaron Judge's return help save the Yankees' season? - ESPN

The 2023 New York Yankees are a mystery, even to some of those who helped construct this team. "Have you seen anything like this?" said one staffer over the phone, in what sounded like a small plea for therapy. "Does this make any sense to you?"

You look at the roster and its players' career statistics and sure, it is a puzzle. Anthony Rizzo is approaching his 300th career homer; over the last 38 games, he's got a slugging percentage of .239. Less than three years ago, DJ LeMahieu won a batting title with a .364 average; now he's hitting more than 130 points lower than that. Since June 3, the date that Aaron Judge got hurt, the only team that has scored fewer runs than the Yankees -- the Bronx Bombers! -- is the Kansas City Royals, and no team has a lower batting average than the Yankees' .220. Their left fielders are collectively batting .227 -- and somehow have been significantly better offensively than defensively.

Earlier this season, when the Yankees played in Boston, manager Aaron Boone used a question about the impact of Judge's injury to attack the "narrative" -- his word -- that the Yankees are a sterile team without the slugger.

Judge is finally returning to the lineup for a crucial series in Baltimore, and now Boone and the staffers have to hope that the narrative was real -- that the Yankees are a different team when Judge is present in the batting order (he went 0-1 with three walks in the Yankees' 1-0 loss on Friday). There is sincere belief within the organization that this team could be well-suited to make a deep run through the postseason -- if they make it there. As of today, with the trade deadline only a few days away, the Yankees wouldn't even qualify to play October games. After the Yankees were swept in Anaheim last week, Boone said, "We stink right now. We acknowledge that. We've got to be better. We all understand where we are at. We're seeing some guys make progress and move the needle a little bit and get a little bit healthier, but we still got a ways to go."

Within a franchise that hasn't had a losing record in three decades, this is all mind-bending; for the Yankees' fan base, it's excruciating, with angry loyalists filling the boards of New York call-in shows demanding trades and lobbying for reconstruction of the leadership, venting about how Hal Steinbrenner is not like his dad, how general manager Brian Cashman can't find an outfielder, how Boone's bullpen and lineup decisions, particularly with the offense performing so poorly, leave scant margins for error.

But there won't be a mass exodus at the deadline Tuesday, and there won't be any masthead changes anytime soon. The firing of hitting coach Dillon Lawson at the All-Star break was the first in-season coaching staff dismissal that Cashman has affected in his 26 years as general manager -- rest assured, Boone is staying put for the rest of the season. Cashman himself just signed a new contract that runs through the 2026 season. And while it's true that Steinbrenner doesn't run a operate like his father -- who succeeded over the full sweep of his ownership but also made some horrifically impetuous decisions that have been forgotten through the fog of time -- you might have noticed that he has the same last name. He's not going anywhere; the team, worth billions of dollars, is not for sale.

Rival executives expect that the Yankees will add help before the deadline, and in keeping with Cashman's long history, they believe that he'll make some of the moves in the last hours. The Yankees have had conversations with the Cubs about outfielder Cody Bellinger, who could be the best position player traded this summer and would plug the left field hole in Boone's lineup -- but as of Friday afternoon, the Cubs weren't sure if they were selling or buying. "Firmly on the fence," texted one industry source, dryly. There are a handful of other outfielders available, as well, from the Mets' Mark Canha and Tommy Pham to the Rockies' Randal Grichuk.

But it might be that the Yankees, a team of stars, will rebound -- or not -- based on the condition of the right big toe of Judge. As he rejoins the lineup, he is not close to 100% healthy; he's acknowledged that he might need offseason surgery. So long as Judge doesn't have a significant setback, Boone will play Judge when he can play, and the Yankees' medical staff will collect daily feedback that'll inform Boone's choices about whether Judge is in the lineup, and in right field or at DH.

If Judge is OK -- if he's even close to being the same player he's been in recent seasons -- the Yankees believe they could field a team capable of making real noise in the postseason, largely because of the dominance of the bullpen. During last year's World Series, one Yankees staffer was speaking with a peer in the Phillies' organization after Philadelphia took 2 games to 1 lead over Houston, and the Philly employee felt really good about the team's chances for winning a title.

The Yankees' staffer had just seen the Houston bullpen crush the New York offense in the American League Championship Series. "You guys might not score another run in the series," he replied, a prediction that was only a little off: The Phillies scored three in the final three games.

The Yankees' bullpen is very much like Houston's in 2023, ranking first in the big leagues in ERA at 3.20, second in the rate of stranded runners (76.1%) and with the second-lowest rate in home runs allowed (0.80 per nine innings). Boone has a versatile collection of high-end relievers, following Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon and other veteran starters, and a lineup that has demonstrated it can be potent.

With Judge in it, anyway. In the games he's played this year, the Yankees are 30-19 -- when he's been out, they are sub-.500. Narrative or reality, it's a complete mystery.