'Caitlin Clark Effect' Is Real, but WNBA Playoff Boost May Be Fleeting

Capping a blistering 40-game performance in which she averaged 19.2 points per game while shattering multiple TV ratings records, Caitlin Clark on Sunday was unanimously named the 2024 Associated Press WNBA Rookie of the Year. And while the 22-year-old sharpshooter has played an unequivocal role in greatly expanding the league’s popularity, Clark’s outsized impact may not be fully realized until Indiana exits the playoffs.

In her first year as a pro Clark has almost singlehandedly ushered the WNBA into a new era, as her games with the Fever became mandatory viewing for basketball fiends and curiosity seekers alike. With Clark running point, Indiana appeared in 19 games that delivered 1 million viewers or more for the league’s multiple TV partners, a run that was all but unthinkable prior to this season; per Nielsen, the last time an WNBA telecast managed a seven-figure delivery was in 2008.

By way of comparison, only three non-Clark WNBA games Clark notched 1 million viewers or better this season. So while that rising tide helped lift the rest of the league’s boats—ESPN’s WNBA coverage averaged 1.2 million viewers per game, up 170% versus 2023—the vast majority of those gains were generated by the Fever. The discrepancy is hard to overlook, as Clark’s nationally televised appearances averaged 1.18 million viewers per game, while all other WNBA outings drew a relatively subdued 394,000.

If there’s a caveat to Clark’s transformative season, it’s that nearly all of Indiana’s games were illuminated by the national media spotlight. No fewer than 36 of the Fever’s 40 regular-season meetings aired on coast-to-coast TV, a show of ubiquity that puts even the omnipresent Dallas Cowboys to shame. (Expect a similar blitz in 2025; if nothing else, Clark & Co. certainly rewarded the networks for their big bets on the rookie.)

Trouble is, the Fever are about to run headlong into the buzzsaw that is the Connecticut Sun. Set to tip off this afternoon in their first playoff game since 2016, Indiana eked out a 1-3 record against Connecticut this season, dropping the first three matchups by an average margin of 14 points per game. Although the Fever would rally for an 84-80 win over the Sun at the end of August, Clark’s team is listed as a consensus -6.5 underdog ahead of their Sunday opener.

The best-of-three format favors Connecticut’s veteran squad, which boasts one of the league’s most stifling defenses. And while Clark is expected to work her usual magic (on the court as well as inside the guts of the Nielsen monitors), Indiana’s not likely to advance to the next round. When she exits, the ratings rocket will lose a lot of momentum. On the plus side, the bar to improve upon last year’s overall playoff deliveries is low; anything north of 475,000 viewers per game will beat out the league’s 2023 numbers.

In the meantime, Clark has a few more opportunities to draw new fans to the WNBA. After today’s opener on ABC, Indiana will take another crack at the Sun Wednesday night on ABC. If the Fever can steal a win in either outing, the deciding game will tip off Friday night. While the host network has yet to be determined, it’s Disney higher-ups may elect to pre-empt the scheduled episode of ABC’s 20/20 to carve out a broadcast window for the playoff. Season 46 of 20/20 averaged 2.73 million viewers, a turnout which is well within Clark’s shooting range.