Salary Cap Deep Dive: Winnipeg Jets

Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2024-25 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We wrap up our look at the Central Division with Winnipeg.

Current Cap Hit: $82,223,691 (under the $88MM Upper Limit)

None for players projected to be full-time regulars.

F Mason Appleton ($2.167MM, UFA)
F Morgan Barron ($1.35MM, RFA)
F Nikolaj Ehlers ($6MM, UFA)
F Axel Jonsson-Fjallby ($775K, UFA)
G Kaapo Kahkonen ($1MM, UFA)
F Rasmus Kupari ($1MM, RFA)
F Alex Iafallo ($4MM, UFA)
F Vladislav Namestnikov ($2MM, UFA)
D Neal Pionk ($5.875MM, UFA)
D Dylan Samberg ($1.4MM, RFA)
F Gabriel Vilardi ($3.4375MM, RFA)

Ehlers has been in trade speculation for a while now but nothing has happened on that front and he’ll start the season with the Jets.  While he is a bit of a streaky player and has had some injury woes, he has averaged at least 0.74 points per game (a 61-point pace per 82 games) in five straight years.  That type of overall consistency should earn him another long-term deal with an extra million or so on the cap hit.  Iafallo was part of last summer’s Pierre-Luc Dubois trade but wasn’t able to provide the same level of scoring despite spending a lot of time in the top six.  If he has another stat line like that in 2024-25, he could be looking at a small dip but if he gets back to the 40-point range, he could check in a bit higher than his current cost.

Vilardi was arguably the key piece of the Dubois trade.  A 2017 first-round pick, he had shown flashes of being a top-six piece in Los Angeles but struggled to do so consistently and dealt with injuries.  With Winnipeg, he was consistently productive but the injury struggles continued as he missed 35 games.  Nonetheless, the 25-year-old showed that he can be a core piece for the Jets and is someone who they’ll want to have around for the long haul although the injury history will be a complicating factor.  Even so, there’s a good chance his next contract will start with at least a six which will come in well past his $3.6MM qualifying offer.

Appleton stayed healthy last season after battling injuries in 2022-23, reaching a new career-high in points in the process with 36.  A true middle-six winger who moves up and down the lineup, he should be able to add at least $1MM to his current price tag on a multi-year deal; it could approach $4MM if he puts up a similar point total this season.  Namestnikov hasn’t had much success on the open market in recent years as he has struggled to find a long-term fit.  While he’s coming off his best point total since 2017-18 with 37, he’d need another season like that to get to the $3MM mark.  As things stand, another two-year deal around $2.5MM per season might be where he winds up.

Barron was limited to primarily fourth-line ice time last season and he’s likely to have a similar role this season which won’t help his cause.  He’s owed a $1.4MM qualifying offer with arbitration rights so if his production dips a bit in 2024-25, he could become a non-tender candidate.  Failing that, a small raise to around $1.5MM to $1.75MM could be achievable.  Kupari was also brought in from Los Angeles last summer but struggled mightily with his new team.  Owed a $1.1MM qualifying offer next summer, that seems on the high side unless he’s able to secure a full-time roster spot and have a bit of success this season.  Jonsson-Fjallby has been up and down in recent years while holding a fringe role when he has been in the NHL.  Accordingly, it’s likely that he’ll stay at or near the minimum moving forward.

Pionk’s best season was his first with Winnipeg back in 2019-20.  Since then, he has still shown flashes of being an above-average blueliner but has struggled somewhat with consistency.  Having said that, he can still log over 20 minutes a night without much issue, has passed 30 points in five straight years, and is a right-shot player.  That’s a strong combination heading into free agency, positioning himself for likely another long-term deal with a price tag starting with a six.  Samberg has been limited to third-pairing duty thus far but has fared well in that role.  Still, he’ll need to take on a bigger role if he wants any sort of significant raise from the $1.5MM offer he’ll be owed in the summer with arbitration rights.

Kahkonen struggled last season with San Jose but did well in a small sample size with New Jersey to finish the year.  Still, the lasting memory of his time with the Sharks didn’t help his cause in free agency, resulting in this one-year deal at a sizable pay cut.  Given Winnipeg’s recent track records with backups, this could be a good landing spot for him but he’ll need to come closer to maintaining his numbers with the Devils to get back to the $2.75MM of his last contract.

G Eric Comrie ($825K, UFA)
F Kyle Connor ($7.143MM, UFA)
F David Gustafsson ($835K, RFA)
D Ville Heinola ($800K, RFA)
F Adam Lowry ($3.25MM, UFA)
D Colin Miller ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Logan Stanley ($1.25MM, UFA)

Connor will be the next big-ticket contract that the Jets have to contend with relatively quickly.  The 27-year-old has emerged as a legitimate top-line threat, averaging more than a point per game over the past five seasons combined while passing the 30-goal mark in four of those.  If that continues over the next two years, he will make a strong case to become Winnipeg’s highest-paid player with a price tag in the $9MM range.

Lowry doesn’t put up the offensive numbers to necessarily be worth this money but as a strong defensive player as well, he’s well worth the contract.  Best suited as a third-line pivot, we’ve seen some of those players push past $4MM lately and it stands to reason that he’ll be able to do so as well.  As for Gustafsson, he’s still working on securing himself a full-time role in the lineup.  He’ll need to do that to have a chance at pushing past the $1MM threshold on his next agreement.

Miller didn’t play much with Winnipeg after they acquired him at the trade deadline but it didn’t stop them from re-signing him.  It’s the second straight contract in which he has accepted a pay cut, a reflection of his diminishing role.  At $1.5MM, they don’t need him to do much but they’ll be hoping he can at least get back to the 15-20-point range.

Stanley and Heinola have seemingly been on shaky ground for a while now but they’re still in Winnipeg.  Stanley has been a frequent healthy scratch, especially the last two years which led to a trade request that went unfulfilled.  The two years is a small showing of faith but if he’s still in this role at the end of this contract, it’d be shocking to see him re-signed.  Heinola made the team in training camp last year but was injured in the final preseason game and once he was cleared to return, he stayed in the minors the rest of the way.  Playing time was hard to come by when he was healthy and he’s likely on the fringes again although he’s now waiver-eligible.  Still, this is a low-risk move that buys more time to evaluate and if Heinola can produce like he did in the minors (and stay healthy which is already an issue again), this could be a team-friendly pact quite quickly.

Comrie is back for his third stint with the team.  The second one saw him put up his best performance before going to Buffalo in free agency where he struggled.  It’s possible that he pushes for the backup spot but considering that he cleared waivers last season, they may view him as a third-string option.  Until Comrie can re-establish himself as a regular backup, this is more the price range he’s likely to stay in.

F Nino Niederreiter ($4MM, UFA)

Niederreiter has settled in as a player who should hover around 20 goals and 35-40 points per season.  At this price point, that’s neither a bargain nor a bad value deal as reliable secondary scoring can be hard to come by.  He’ll be 35 when this contract is up, however, which means he might be going year-to-year from there.

D Dylan DeMelo ($4.9MM through 2027-28)
G Connor Hellebuyck ($8.5MM through 2030-31)
D Josh Morrissey ($6.25MM through 2027-28)
F Mark Scheifele ($8.5MM through 2030-31)

Scheifele may not be a true number one center but he has filled that role in Winnipeg for a long time now and has held up pretty well.  Over the past eight seasons combined, he has averaged just over a point per game and has only been under 0.97 points per game once.  That type of year-to-year consistency isn’t easy to come by which helped earn him this deal, one that takes him to the age of 38.  It would be surprising to see Scheifele producing at this level by the time he gets to the end of the contract but if he continues to produce at a point-per-game rate for a few more years at least, Winnipeg should get a pretty good return on his deal overall.

GM Kevin Cheveldayoff took a leap of faith with Morrissey, giving him this max-term agreement after his bridge deal despite the fact he had a career-high of just 31 points.  He felt there was another gear he could get to and the last two years demonstrated that he was right as Morrissey has emerged as a legitimate top-end defender.  The going rate for someone in this role is several million more than this, making it a strong value deal.  It’s not likely that DeMelo’s will be viewed in the same light.  He has worked his way from a depth piece to one who is a key shutdown player but it’s unlikely that the offense will come around to make it a true value contract.  That said, he might have wound up leaving money on the table when he re-signed just before free agency.

Hellebuyck has been one of the better bargains for goaltenders in recent years, playing at a Vezina level while being nowhere close to the highest-paid goalies.  Eventually, that had to come to an end but the Jets still landed him at a rate that was below the top-paid netminders.  Like Scheifele, this takes Hellebuyck to his age-38 year and given the workload he has had in recent years, durability towards the end could be a concern but for the next few years, Winnipeg should get a solid return.

D Nate Schmidt ($2.717MM in 2024-25, $1.617MM in 2025-26)
F Blake Wheeler ($2.75MM in 2024-25)

None

F Cole Perfetti – Perfetti is now just one of three remaining restricted free agents across the NHL.  The 22-year-old is coming off his most productive season, one that saw him record 19 goals and 19 assists in 71 games.  However, he also found himself a healthy scratch at times down the stretch and in the playoffs.  A bridge contract makes the most sense for both sides at this point but it seems as if there’s a sizable gap to work through still.  Something in the $3MM to $3.5MM range might be the right spot for that agreement.

Best Value: (non-entry-level) Morrissey
Worst Value: Iafallo

At the moment, Winnipeg projects to have well over $5MM in cap room, a number that will go down considerably once Perfetti puts pen to paper on a new deal.  But even when that happens, the Jets are in better shape than a lot of teams and should be able to bank some cap space early on to use later in the season as they’ve done in recent years.

Next offseason should be one of change for Winnipeg.  The team only has $49.4MM in commitments for 2025-26 and while there are some big-ticket deals to hammer out (Ehlers and Vilardi, in particular), there also will be an opportunity to at least turn over some of the role players if they so desire and look to try to add an impact player as well.  They only have five players signed for 2026-27 so Winnipeg’s long-term books are among the cleanest in the league at the moment.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.