Vladimir Putin's Latest Threat to NATO Comes Through Romania ...

A strange thing happened to Romania on its way to another humdrum post-communist election: A sudden outbreak of the right-wing populist virus, driven by a suspicious TikTok mega-mobilization. In the background, with the usual implausible deniability, you can make out a shadow that looks a lot like Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The stakes in next Sunday's second round presidential election are probably the highest in the 35 years since the overthrow of communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu in the most violent of the revolutions that swept away communism in Eastern Europe and put an end to the Warsaw Pact – an earthquake that Putin has described as a tragedy.

Should ultranationalist insurgent Calin Georgescu win, it might mark a shift returning Romania to Russia's orbit. It would be a huge blow to the European Union and NATO—of which he is a skeptic, like his fellow travelers. As Romania is a NATO member critical to the aid supply to neighboring Ukraine in its defense against Russian aggression, it would be terrible news for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Georgescu has said placing NATO's missile defense shield in Romania was a "shame of diplomacy," that the alliance wouldn't protect members if they're attacked by Russia, that Putin is "a patriot" and that Romania's best bet was to go with "Russian wisdom." He says he saw aliens and has also labelled Romania's pro-Nazi World War II leaders national heroes; in Eastern Europe, which doesn't have the same problem Western countries do with large-scale Muslim immigration, the sketchy right has not yet let go of antisemitism.

Georgescu came out of nowhere on Nov. 24 to emerge in first place with 22 percent of the vote in the first round of the presidential election. According to numerous analyses, he benefited from the sudden appearance, in the days prior to the election, of about 5,000 TikTok accounts seemingly coordinated in their messages and reaching about 50 million impressions. The suspicion naturally fell on Russia, and the matter is under investigation.

"A campaign of such ambition is a first in Romania, not only in budget but organization," said digital marketing expert Cristi Birta, who estimated the cost at 2 million euros (about $2.1 million). Burta said that while it was tempting to blame Russia, and "there is categorical evidence in the case of other countries," it was too early to say here.

Georgescu's rival in the presidential runoff, centrist small-town mayor Elena Lasconi, shows no such circumspection. "If we remain united, no Russian robots on TikTok will defeat us," she declared after Sunday's parliamentary vote, the second of the three election stages. "We will not forget the Russian tanks that occupied our country."

"This election is not about parties anymore but about Romanian democracy and about remaining in NATO and the European Union," Lasconi said. "I will defend our country's independence from Russia. Russia has never done anything good for Romania in history."

She's right. Russia has long shoved around Romania as it has all its neighbors, many of whom were occupied for decades, either as constituent "republics" of the Soviet Union (like Ukraine) or dominions which the Soviets controlled through local puppet communist parties (like Romania). The Soviet Union, in a shady 1939 deal with Nazi Germany known as the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, basically stole the northeast of the country, handing bits of it to Ukraine and creating the fake republic of "Moldova" with the rest.

After the war it imposed communism on what remained of Romania—as on Poland, Hungary, and other places. It was a system that was misaligned with human nature by failing to reward excellence at work (as opposed to excellence at bootlickery). The result was poverty, misery, and oppression everywhere the Russians did tread, and the whole structure collapsed around 35 years ago, including in Russia itself, with Eastern Europe breaking free and the Soviet Union breaking apart.

I lived in Romania for a few years at the time, and I can assure you there was no significant confusion among the people about the mind-bending damage that Russia had caused to the country, the region and the spirit of people from Siberia to Slovakia, causing the death of countless millions. So, it was interesting to me, on a visit to the country a few weeks ago, to observe that some confusion had set in.

On one hand, there was a measure of nostalgia for communism by those whom capitalism has left behind; you didn't get rich, but neither did anyone else, so people were spared the exceptionally potent pain we know as human jealousy. On the other, there was the familiar poisonous cocktail of grievance familiar to Americans from President-elect Donald Trump: Nefarious liberal elites are out to destroy the country with their ideas that humanity is global.

The second element attaches to ultranationalism—think "America First"—and it is an ironic twist of history that this toxin has been coopted by Putin, who is no friend of any other country. There are two explanations for this.

First, Putin's mutation of the communist gene, which was originally universalist, is actually ultranationalist itself; his political movement might just as well be called Make Russia Great Again, and it has all the white and Christian supremacist, gay- and liberal-bashing trappings of its angry cousins across Europe and in the United States.

The second is more underhanded. Putin wants Russia to be greater than Europe, and so he needs it broken up into small and mid-size countries. That is best achieved by stoking anti-European Union sentiment wherever he can. So, in Germany, the far-right Alternative fur Deutschland has pushed Kremlin-aligned narratives. Putin is widely believed to have sent his bot armies in aid of Brexit and Marine Le Pen in France.

And, of course, Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election amplified divisive rhetoric to bolster Trump. Trump can deny it to his heart's content; he can also claim the Chinese pay his tariffs, and that Mexico will fund a border wall.

Putin's bots are also generally blamed for the fact that Moldova's October referendum on whether the country should seek to join the EU just barely passed, with 50.4 percent. Maia Sandu, the country's president, accused "criminal groups" of attempting to undermine the democratic process through disinformation campaigns and vote-buying schemes, and investigations suggested 150,000 individuals were bribed to vote against EU membership, with suspicions of Russian financial backing.

Well, Trump is no fan of the EU, and Trumpists will be tempted to support Georgescu; his dog-whistling travels on their wavelength. And there have been some disturbing reports of Trump-affiliated visits planned with the candidate. Americans, beware: Putin and his lackeys are not your friends.

I hope Romanians prove that they know better. The Dec. 1 parliamentary vote suggested that they do, just barely: Nationalist parties that tap into the Georgescu zeitgeist won about a third of the vote; that means that just like in France, center-left and center-right parties will need to put aside some petty squabbles and unite to slay the dragon.

Romania's democratic transition was turbulent, marked by corruption scandals and an uphill battle to align with Western norms. Its 2004 accession to NATO and 2007 entry into the EU were seen as milestones, but they also brought expectations of reform that successive governments struggled to meet. Nonetheless, per capita GDP is now pushing $20,000/year, and double that when cost-of-living is factored in. It has, basically, caught and surpassed neighbors like Greece, which never suffered communism. Bucharest is a wonderful place to visit; the countryside is spectacular; the direction is clearly upward.

The challenge to this trajectory next Sunday is not an isolated incident but part of a global trend. Romania's proximity to Ukraine and its role in countering Russian aggression make it an especially attractive target. You may consider it a faraway place but make no mistake: George Kennan's old Domino Theory in this case applies, and if Romania should topple, your domino might be next.

Dan Perry is the former Cairo-based Middle East editor and London-based Europe/Africa editor of the Associated Press, the former Chairman of the Foreign Press Association in Jerusalem and the author of two books. Follow him at danperry.substack.com.

The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.