UFC 310 Pantoja vs. Asakura: Best Bets, Odds and Predictions
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC 310 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week: 3-3 (+0.18 Units, 2.65% ROI)
Article History: 107-160 (-30.09 Units, -10.13% ROI)
Since 2020: 659-624 (+187.06 Units, 10.85% ROI)
PICK EM HISTORY
Last Week: 7-6 (53.85%)
Article History: 239-164 (57.87%)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-125) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-105)
Alexandre Pantoja was an “also-ran” until he became the man. He began his UFC career with a 6-3 record, very solid, but not exactly elite. He lost to Deiveson Figueiredo, who was on his way to the flyweight title, and two other fighters who are no longer in the UFC. However, after the unremarkable start, he is on a six-fight win streak, with the last three fights being for the belt.
Taking the championship from Brandon Moreno via split decision was a massive accomplishment, and his victory over Brandon Rovyal has aged very well. However, his third title defense over Steve Erceg may be a cause for pause. Pantoja won the early rounds, but Erceg had hope late. The decision was fairly straightforward in Brazil, but Erceg’s next fight was a KO loss to Kai Kara-France.
Pantoja is a grappling specialist. However, he is not afraid to brawl, even when it’s not in his best interest. By the most basic stats, Pantoja’s striking profile is not on par with those of his champion peers. His grappling numbers are good but not elite (albeit definitely muted by the level of competition he has faced). It is also worth noting that he is 9-0 versus fighters currently ranked in the flyweight top 10 (including The Ultimate Fighter bouts), and he is a perfect example of a competitor who knows what it takes to execute in “winning time.”
Kai Asakura has earned the rare chance to jump straight into title contention after joining the UFC from a different organization. Asakura is the Rizin Bantamweight Champion after taking the belt from Juan Archuleta (Former Bellator bantamweight champion). He seemingly made the cut down to 125 easily and will enter the cage with a three-inch height advantage compared to Pantoja. At 31, he is also the younger fighter by three years. Asakura’s results versus UFC-level competition have generally been poor. The win vs Juan Archuleta is nice, but four years ago, he was knocked out by Kyoji Horiguchi (7-1 in the UFC), and in 2019, he was KOd by Manel Kape (4-3 UFC record).
Overall, I do not think Asakura is on the level of Alexandre Pantoja. I feel like the last three fighters Pantoja has defeated would have no trouble getting their hand raised versus Asakura, and they all could be Rizin Champions. That said, Asakura’s power could present a problem if Pantoja doesn’t prioritize defense. He has 13 career KO victories in 31 pro wins.
FIGHT WINNER: Alexandre Pantoja
UFC 310 BEST BET: Alexandre Pantoja Inside the Distance (-110) vs Asakura, Risk 1.1 Unit to win 1
Parlay Piece, See below
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Shavkat “Nomad” Rakhmonov (-375) vs Ian “The Future” Machado Garry (+295)Over 2.5 Rounds (-195) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+150)
Shavkat Rakhmonov came into the UFC with a 12-0 record and a 100% finish rate. He is now 18-0 and still has a 100% finish rate which is a bit insane given the level of competition he has faced legit UFC competition. His greatest strength is being lethal with both his hands and as a submission artist. He has a 61% significant strike accuracy rate in the UFC and avoids over half the strikes thrown back this way. He only gets hit 2.41 times per minute, which is very good. He also has landed 1.49 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage and has never been taken down. Additionally, he is very aware of the finish streak but never forces the issue. He is patient enough to find openings late in fights before getting his opponents out of there. He is the most dangerous welterweight in the UFC, and his opponents are well aware.
Ian Garry comes from the Colby Covington school of overpromising finishes but underdelivering when he gets in the cage. Alright, maybe underdelivering is a bit of an exaggeration. Garry is also undefeated at 15-0 and is 8-0 in the UFC. However, his finishing stats are nowhere near as good as his Uzbeki opponent, and he is quite eager to run out the clock when he feels like he is in an advantageous position. It shows good fight IQ, but it is not the best way to endear yourself to fans. Additionally, Garry’s last four opponents have been aged 33 or older, which is notable because Garry is just 27 years old. Rakhmonov is 30 and will be the opponent most near Garry’s age since the second fight of his career.
Rakhmonov is the two-inch shorter fighter at 6’1” but has a three-inch reach advantage at 77”. Ian Garry secured the second and third takedowns of his UFC career in his last fight versus Michael “Venom” Page, but that is because Page is an absolutely hopeless grappler. That avenue will not be available in this match up. Rakhmonov has struck with better strikers than Garry and grappled superior grapplers.
FIGHT WINNER: Shavkat Rakhmonov
UFC 310 BEST BET: Parlay: Rakhmonov/Pantoja (-130, FanDuel), Risk 1.3 Units to WIn 1
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Ciryl “Bon Gamin” Gane (-375) vs Alexander “Drago” Volkov (+295)Over 2.5 Rounds (-330) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+240)
By my standards, this fight is good enough to be a main event. It is a rematch of a fight that went to the scorecards back in 2021. Ciryl Gane is potentially the most fluid kickboxer in UFC heavyweight history. Alexander Volkov has the height of an NBA power forward but the boxing skills of his namesake Ivan Drago. Both of these men land over 5.0 significant strikes per minute while boasting significant strike differentials of greater than two. Accuracy numbers are also extremely impressive, with Gane landing 60% of his significant strikes and Volkov landing 57%.
The one area where one fighter stands out is on the ground, Volkov is much more likely to integrate grappling and submissions than Gane, and if he looks at both of Gane’s UFC losses, he will realize that both Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou were able to solve the riddle by forcing the fight to the ground. Interestingly, the first time these men fought, Gane attempted four takedowns and was unsuccessful on them all. Volkov did not complete one.
FIGHT WINNER: Alexander Volkov
UFC 310 BEST BET: Alexander Volkov (+310, Caesars) vs Gane, Risk 1 unit to win 3.1
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Bryce “Thug Nasty” Mitchell (-900) vs Kron Gracie (+600)Over 2.5 Rounds (-280) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+210)
Bryce Mitchell is one of the more entertaining fighters on the microphone, but not always for the right reasons. He is funny, but it’s a mix between laughing with him and laughing at him. Out-of-cage antics aside, he can be a devastating fighter. His grappling game is strong, and he has tons of unconventional submissions. But I brought up his antics first because if he finds himself in trouble in this fight, it will be because of a mental lapse, not because he isn’t the more talented fighter.
Kron Gracie is a specialist. He has the legendary name of Gracie and is every bit deserving as a submission grappling world champion. That said, his mixed martial arts skills are quite limited. He is 5-2 in the sport and 1-2 in the UFC. Generally speaking, he sells out to pull guard, and if his opponent doesn’t fall for it, he flails around on the mat in an embarrassing fashion before getting stood up and outstruck on the feet. But his striking metrics aren’t quite as bad as you’d expect, and in his UFC career, he has landed more significant strikes per minute than Bryce Mitchell.
If Bryce Mitchell refuses to engage on the ground, he is a deserving favorite. If he has a mental lapse and engages on the mat, I think he will be in trouble, and this fight flips to a pick’em for Gracie at worst. I can’t trust Mitchell to fight smart.
FIGHT WINNER: Kron Gracie
UFC 310 BEST BET: Kron Gracie (+600) vs Mitchell, Risk 0.75 Units to win 4.5
Kron Gracie to win via Submission (+1400) vs Mitchell, Risk .25 Units to win 3.5
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Nate “The Train” Landwehr (-130) vs Dooho “The Korean Superboy” Choi (+110)Over 2.5 Rounds (+130) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-166)
Nate Landwehr is underrated. He has knockout power, throws a ton of volume, and is a capable grappler to boot. He has won four of his last five fights and has turned a corner as he has reached the back half of his 30s. The problem for Landwehr is that Dooho Choi is also underrated, and in my book, even more underrated than Landwehr. Choi was one of the hottest young fighters in the organization around a decade ago. He was 3-0 with three first-round finishes. However, when he began fighting tougher competition, he tried to employ his caution to the wind style and paid the price. His chin got depleted, and he had an injury layoff. Then he was forced into compulsory military service as a South Korean and was completely out of the sport from 2019 to 2023.
Choi’s return to the cage in 2023 was a bit disappointing. He had a controversial draw versus Kyle Nelson, 9 of 11 media members on MMADecisions.com gave the fight to Choi, with the other two agreeing with the draw. After that fight, he fought Bill Algeo and won via second-round knockout. He still has the power that made him a star in this organization, but he has matured, and his defensive metrics have improved immensely since his layoff.
Choi fought exclusively firefights early in his career but is still the more accurate striker compared to Nate Landwehr. He is also undoubtedly more powerful. Furthermore, Landwehr gets hit nearly six times per minute. That is an unsustainable rate versus Choi’s power. There is an outside shot that Landwehr is able to land takedowns early and often and control this fight, but generally speaking, Choi gets back up when taken down. Landwehr’s last loss came in a matchup in which he had a power disadvantage.
BET WINNER: Dooho Choi
UFC 310 BEST BET: Dooho Choi (+115, Caesars) vs Landwehr, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.15
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Anthony “Lionheart” Smith (+310) vs Dominick “The Devastator” Reyes (-395)Over 1.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+130)
Both of these fighters are far past their prime. But the line indicates father time is only affecting Anthony Smith, which is just a little bit ridiculous. Both fighters are in their mid 30s and several years removed from their title shots. Dominick Reyes is 1-4 dating back to 2020 and has been knocked out in his most recent three losses. He finally got back in the win column in June versus Dustin Jacoby with a first-round knockout. He put the pressure on early and often and took advantage of a fighter who was wearing the damage of an active schedule. Meanwhile, Anthony Smith is 2-2 in his last two fights. He definitely isn’t the guy who fought Jon Jones for the belt in 2019, but he is still dangerous and defeated Vitor Petrino as a +400 underdog in Brazil in May. The biggest issue with Smith is he is one foot out the door, and more often seen as a member of the commentary team than in the octagon.
FIGHT WINNER: Anthony Smith
UFC 310 BEST BET: Pass
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Vicente “The Silent Assassin” Luque (+130) vs Themba “The Answer” Gorimbo (-155)Over 2.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+124)
Themba Gorimbo has looked awesome since losing his UFC debut. Since then, he is 4-0 in the organization and has taken care of business as a favorite. But Vicente Luque is a different beast and brings a whole different level of experience into the cage. Gorimbo is 14-4 as a professional fighter, Luque is 15-6 in just the UFC… and both fighters are 33 years old. Luque has won eight UFC performance bonuses, Gorimbo has five UFC fights in total. That said, the case for Gorimbo as a favorite jumps off the page when you look at his gaudy fight statistics. He lands 61% of the significant strikes he attempts. He only gets hit with 1.07 significant strikes per minute and lands 4.89 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage.
Despite Gorimbo being all-world on paper, Luque’s stats lag behind because he has fought much stiffer competition. However, Gorimbo is entering his prime, or currently in it. Luque is 1-3 in his last four fights (0-3 as a favorite, 1-0 as a dog), so his best days may be in the rearview. Additionally, Luquue has terrible defensive striking metrics. The question remains: will Gorimbo have enough aggression to exploit this hole?
FIGHT WINNER: Vicente Luque
UFC 310 BEST BET: Vicente Luque (+140, Caesars), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.4
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Movsar Evloev (-245) vs Aljamain “Funk Master” Sterling (+200)Over 2.5 (-445) | Under 2.5 (+310)
Movsar Evloev is another fighter on this card, rocking the “and 0” record with 18 wins and zero defeats. He is 8-0 in the UFC and hasn’t really been challenged outside of a close call versus Diego Lopes (Lopes took the fight on short notice). He has very little power in his hands but excels in striking defense. He also employs a grappling-heavy game to stay safe. It’s hard to lose a fight when you don’t get hit and maintain top control when wrestling.
Aljamain Sterling is one of the more under-appreciated fighters in the UFC. His title run at bantamweight was legit, and now as a featherweight, he looks the part. He has legit ground skills, and I do not think Evloev will be able to simply control him if the fight hits the mat. Additionally I consider Sterling the much more dangerous striker. To me, this line is flat-out disrespectful, and I need to back the former champ here. His experience in crucial moments is hard to overlook.
FIGHT WINNER: Aljamain Sterling
UFC 310 BEST BET: Aljamain Sterling (+200), vs Evloev, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2
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Randy “Rudeboy” Brown (+154) vs Bryan Battle (-185)Over 2.5 Rounds (-140) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+110)
Randy Brown is a true UFC pro. He doesn’t necessarily have the consistency to every fight for a belt, but he does have the skills to be a challenge for any opponent entering the cage. Bryan Battle is on a meteoric rise with a 6-1, 1 NC UFC record and five finishes in the cage. However, the story of this fight is Battle missing weight by four pounds and looking terrible on the scale. The total unknown regarding his health and state of mind makes me reluctant to lay the price.
FIGHT WINNER: Randy Brown
UFC 310 BEST BET: Pass
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Chris “The All-American” Weidman (-112) vs Eryk “Ya Boi” Anders (-108)Over 2.5 Rounds (-200) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+154)
It is sad to say, but Chris Weidman is four fights removed from being four fights removed from his prime (and calling 8 fights ago his prime is probably still generous). At his best, he was a dominating wrestler who had fight-ending striking ability that forced his opponents to pick their poison. Several knee and leg injuries have derailed his career, and now, at age 40, he is nearly robotic out there. He just doesn’t have the mobility needed to fight at a high level. In March, he fought Bruno Silva in New Jersey. He was able to get a technical decision, which was perhaps the most bush league result of the year, considering he repeatedly eye-poked his opponent, which caused the stoppage, but for whatever reason, was not properly penalized. Weidman is 1-2 since 2021, and outside of nostalgia it is hard to generate any sort of excitement to watch Weidman fight.
Eryk Anders isn’t quite as old and broken as Weidman, but at age 37, he is not far off. He is 8-8, with 1 NC in the UFC. Early in his career, his raw power and explosiveness were an asset, but in his more recent fight,s he has struggled to unleash his fury. Overall, he is fairly well-rounded, but not necessarily in a good way. He is just about adequate in most areas needed to be a pro fighter, but he does not have anything that sets him apart in this era of his career. I fully expect this to be the most boring fight of the night. I hope I am wrong. Additionally, I picked Weidman to win this fight back in New York, but after the rescheduling, I give a slight edge to Anders.
FIGHT WINNER: Eryk Anders
UFC 310 BEST BET: Pass
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Cody “Custom Made” Durden (+142) vs Joshua “The Fearless” Van (-170)Over 2.5 Rounds (-120) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-110)
Cody Durden is a good grappler and is a hard charger. Josh Van is young and the far superior striker. He employs body shots as good as anyone in the flyweight division. Van also has great cardio and usually looks fresh late in the fight. I do not think Durden has any shot to win stand-up striking exchanges, and he should try to seek takedowns early and often, but Van’s 83% career takedown defense rate means that will be easier said than done. It is not fruitful to chase KO props in the flyweight division, but I think Van has a real shot to do it here.
FIGHT WINNER: Josh Van
UFC 310 BEST BET: Josh Van (-156, FanDuel), Risk 1.56 Units to Win 1
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Michael “Maverick” Chiesa (-130) vs Max “Pain” Griffin (+110)Over 2.5 Rounds (-210) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+160)
Michael Chiesa is another member of the UFC broadcast team making his way into the cage to fight. Maverick has looked more bad than good lately. He is 1-3 in his last four fights dating back to August 2021, with his one win being a rear naked choke victory over the corpse of Tony Ferguson. Outside of El Cucuy, he has fought legit competition in Kevin Holland, Sean Brady, and Vicente Luque. But at age 37, Chiesa is long past his prime and is still a one-dimensional submission specialist.
Max Griffin is even older than Chiesa at 39. His last two fights have been against younger fighters in Jeremiah Wells and Michael Morales. He beat Wells via split decision but lost a decision to Morales. His path to victory is perhaps the most straightforward on the card. Don’t get taken down, and win the striking exchanges. Seems easy enough for a veteran of 16 walks to the octagon.
FIGHT WINNER: Max Griffin
UFC 310 BEST BET: Max Griffin (+110) vs Chiesa, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.1
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Clay “The Carpenter” Guida (+700) vs Chase “The Dream” Hooper (-1100)Over 1.5 Rounds (-145) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+114)
Clay Guida is legitimately old enough to be Chase Hooper’s dad. Guida is 42; Hooper is 25. Guida made his pro debut when Chase Hooper was four years old. Clay Guida has been around for a long time, and lately, it has not been a good time. He is 1-3 in his last four fights, 2-4 in his last six, and 4-7 since 2019. He still has the cardio to go the distance, but he doesn’t move his head well, he doesn’t land with any power and is not really a submission threat unless an opponent gives it away.
Chase Hooper was the wunderkind du jour for a minute, but after starting his career in the cage 3-3 (when he was college-aged), the organization put the kid on the back burner. He responded and has won three in a row, including two in dominating, inside-the-distance fashion. He submitted Jordan Leavitt and then brutally beat the brakes off of Viacheslav Borshchev before winning via submission. This fight has the potential to be the UFC’s version of the Tyson-Paul boxing match…
FIGHT WINNER: Chase Hooper
UFC 310 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
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Kennedy Nzechukwu (-550) vs Lukasz Brzeski (+410)Over 1.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+124)
Kennedy Nzechukwu has had a seamless transition from the light heavyweight division to heavyweight. His first opponent in the class, Chris Barnett, tore his hamstring with pre-fight antics, and it led to a straightforward KO victory for Kennedy. Now, he actually is the heavier fighter as he takes on Lukasz Brzeski. Both of these fighters are emblematic of the lack of depth in the UFC’s heavyweight division. Kennedy really should be fighting at light heavyweight, but there is room for him at heavyweight. Brzeski shouldn’t be in the UFC, but they need more bodies for ranked and soon-to-be-ranked fighters to beat up on. Brzseki is 1-4 in the UFC with two losses via KO, both of whom are guys who have never knocked out another UFC opponent.
Nzechukwu’s hand speed will win the day here. He also figures to have better cardio and a better chin. I love him to win via KO, at -150 or better, you can parlay with Hooper to reduce the price even further.
FIGHT WINNER: Kennedy Nzechukwu
UFC 310 BEST BET: Parlay: Nzechukwu Win via KO/Hooper ML (-120, FanDuel), Risk 1.2 Units to Win 1
*Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted
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UFC 310 BEST BETS RECAP
– Alexandre Pantoja Inside the Distance (-110) vs Asakura, Risk 1.1 Unit to win 1
– Parlay: Rakhmonov/Pantoja (-130, FanDuel), Risk 1.3 Units to WIn 1
– Alexander Volkov (+310, Caesars) vs Gane, Risk 1 unit to win 3.1
– Kron Gracie (+600) vs Mitchell, Risk 0.75 Units to win 4.5
– Kron Gracie to win via Submission (+1400) vs Mitchell, Risk .25 Units to win 3.5
– Dooho Choi (+115, Caesars) vs Landwehr, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.15
– Vicente Luque (+140, Caesars) vs Gorimbo, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.4
– Aljamain Sterling (+200) vs Evloev, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2
– Josh Van (-156, FanDuel) vs Durden, Risk 1.56 Units to Win 1
– Max Griffin (+110) vs Chiesa, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.1
– Parlay: Nzechukwu Win via KO/Hooper ML (-120, FanDuel), Risk 1.2 Units to Win 1
