Toronto by-election down to wire as Liberal grip on formerly safe ...

Even if they hang on to their very slim lead, the Liberals appear to be headed for worst showing in decades.

Published Jun 24, 2024  •  Last updated 55 minutes ago  •  2 minute read

Liberal candidate for Toronto-St. Paul’s, Leslie Church, left and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, right, speak to supporters at a campaign volunteer event, in Toronto on Thursday, May 30, 2024. Photo by Arlyn McAdorey /THE CANADIAN PRESS

OTTAWA — The race in a hotly contested Toronto by-election turned a normally safe red seat into a fierce battleground, with less than two percentage points separating the Liberal and Conservative candidates as vote-counting dragged into the early hours of Wednesday morning.

At 3:30 am Toronto time, with 96 per cent of  polls reporting, Liberal candidate Leslie Church had 41.4 per cent of the votes counted. Conservative Don Stewart had 39.6 per cent of votes cast. The difference between the two was fewer than 600 votes.

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But thousands of advance ballots had yet to be counted.

The NDP were in third with 12 per cent of the vote. Even if Church hangs on to her single-digit percentage lead, it would be the worst showing the Liberals have had in decades.

An unusually large ballot, with 84 names — most garnering just a few votes each — has slowed down the counting, dragging results hours past the closing of the polls. But the Liberal lead is proving to be incredibly narrow for a seat that they once comfortably owned.

The downtown Toronto riding had until now been considered a Liberal stronghold, which the party has held onto since 1993. Former MP and cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett has represented the riding since 1997 until earlier this year when she stepped down.

Bennett won the riding with a 24-point margin in 2021 and an over 30 point margin in 2019. Even when the Liberals were reduced to just 34 seats in 2011, they comfortably won St. Paul’s with an eight-point lead

Hoping to replace Bennett is Church. She previously served as Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s chief of staff. She is facing a challenge from the Conservatives’ Stewart. The NDP has put forward Amrit Parhar, the Greens are running Christian Cullis, and the People’s Party is represented by Dennis Wilson.

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Most of the names on the unusually large ballot  are part of efforts by the activist group the Longest ballot committee to run an excessively long list of nominees to call attention to Trudeau’s broken promise on electoral reform. Elections Canada said Monday night that counting could “take a bit longer than usual to come in, as the unusual size of the ballot may slow down the counting process.” It said it still expected final results in the evening, but counts were still trickling in more than six hours after polls closed.

Recent polls have put the Conservatives 20 points ahead across the country and with significant leads in Ontario, but the Liberals were expected to hold onto the riding. A defeat by the Liberals in such a safe seat would be a major blow to the government. There is speculation that, if it happens, Trudeau could face pressure from within his party to resign.

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