UFC 306: O'Malley Vs. Dvalishvili —Odds, Lines, Prop Bets And Picks

4 days ago

Forbes

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - SEPTEMBER 12: (L-R) Opponents Sean O'Malley and Merab Dvalishvili of Georgia ... [+] face off during the UFC 306 at Riyadh Season Noche UFC press conference at Sphere on September 12, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)

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The UFC is at the Sphere in Las Vegas for tomorrow’s UFC 306 fight card, which streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view. UFC 306 features two title fights at the top of the card. In the main event, UFC bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley faces the No. 1 ranked UFC 135-pounder Merab Dvalishvili. While in the co-main event, current women’s flyweight champion Alexa Grasso meets former champion Valentina Shevchenko in a trilogy contest.

O’Malley won the UFC bantamweight title in August 2023 with a TKO win over Dvalishvili’s teammate, Aljamain Sterling. He defended his crown for the first time in March, scoring a one-sided decision over Marlon “Chito” Vera. Dvalishvili is coming off a February decision win over former two-division UFC champion Henry Cejudo.

Grasso ended Shevchenko’s lengthy run as women’s 125-pound champion in March 2023 when she handed Shevchenko the first submission loss of her career. The two faced off in a rematch in September 2023. That fight ended in a split draw.

The main card of UFC 306, which is also being called Noche UFC, streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10:00 p.m. ET. The ESPNews prelims begin at 8:00 p.m. ET and follow the ESPN+ streaming early prelims, which start at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Below, we look at the betting odds, line movement, potential prop bets, fight picks, predictions, and more for tomorrow’s UFC 306 fight card.

UFC 306 Odds, Picks and Predictions UFC 306 Main Event: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili

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The betting line on the UFC 306 main event has flipped since the promotion first announced the O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili scrap. When betting odds first dropped, the challenger was a -115 favorite over the champ, who opened at -105. Today, O’Malley is the -140 favorite, and Dvalishvili is the +115 underdog.

Bettors are overwhelmingly supporting O’Malley in this matchup. He has 73 percent of the bets and 81 percent of the handle.

Despite the odds and how the bettors are wagering, my pick is for Dvalishvili’s relentless wrestling and cardio to carry the day. The betting pick is Dvalishvili to win via decision.

UFC 306 Co-Main Event: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 3

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - SEPTEMBER 12: (L-R) Opponents Alexa Grasso of Mexico and Valentina Shevchenko of ... [+] Kyrgyzstan face off during the UFC 306 at Riyadh Season Noche UFC press conference at Sphere on September 12, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)

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When odds were first announced for the UFC 306 co-main event, Grasso was a -120 favorite over Shevchenko, who was +100. That was a change from the first two meetings between these two, as Shevchenko was the favorite in each of those bouts. With fight night approaching, Grasso remains the favorite at -140, while Shevchenko is +115.

Shevchenko has picked up most of the bets at 52 percent, but Grasso has more money coming in on her at 68 percent.

The betting pick is for Grasso to hold on to her title via decision. She has more room to make the needed adjustments in this fight. That includes being more aggressive on her feet.

UFC 306: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - SEPTEMBER 12: (L-R) Opponents Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes of Brazil face off ... [+] during the UFC 306 at Riyadh Season Noche UFC press conference at Sphere on September 12, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)

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The fight between Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes was initially a short-notice co-main event for UFC 303, but illness forced Ortega off that card. Lopes stayed on, fighting, and beating Dan Ige, on a few hour’s notice at 165 pounds. The odds for this fight opened with Lopes at -185 and Ortega at +150. Today, Lopes is the -200 favorite over Ortega, who is at +165.

Ortega has picked up 69 percent of the bets and 51 percent of the handle.

The pick is for Lopes to win by decision and put himself among the elite of the UFC featherweight division.

UFC 306: Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - SEPTEMBER 12: (L-R) Opponents Daniel Zellhuber of Mexico and Esteban Ribovics of ... [+] Argentina face off during the UFC 306 at Riyadh Season Noche UFC press conference at Sphere on September 12, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

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The lightweight bout between Daniel Zellhuber and Esteban Ribovics saw Zellhuber open as the -225 favorite over Ribovics, who was listed at +185. Those odds remain exactly the same.

Ribovics has picked up 60 percent of the best, while 56 percent of the money has come in on Zellhuber.

The pick is Ribovics to win via decision in a closely contested matchup.

UFC 306: Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode Osbourne

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - SEPTEMBER 12: (L-R) Opponents Ronaldo Rodriguez of Mexico and Ode Osbourne of ... [+] Jamaica face off during the UFC 306 at Riyadh Season Noche UFC press conference at Sphere on September 12, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

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Opening the UFC 306 pay-per-view card is a flyweight fight between Ronaldo Rodriguez and Ode Osbourne. When the betting lines for this fight were announced, Rodriguez was -165 and Osbourne was +140. Those odds are the same today.

Most of the bets (55 percent) have come in on Rodriguez and the majority of the money has also come in on the favorite (66 percent).

The pick is Rodriguez to win via decision.

UFC 306: Most Popular Prop Bets

Sean O'Malley by KO/TKO or DQ (+125)

Sean O'Malley by Submission (+1600)

Merab Dvalishvili by Submission (+1800)

Sean O'Malley by Decision/Technical Decision (+450)

Sean O'Malley to win in 60 seconds or less (+3500)

*Odds via BetMGM