What I'm hearing about why Winnipeg Jets top prospect Rutger ...

The Winnipeg Jets’ 2022 first-round pick, Rutger McGroarty, is likely to be traded, a league source told The Athletic on Saturday.

This confirms and adds to Elliotte Friedman’s report on the 32 Thoughts podcast that McGroarty’s name “has come up in trade discussions” and that “the Jets have discussed trading and other teams have discussed acquiring McGroarty’s rights.”

The league source indicated that McGroarty’s view of his long-term future with Winnipeg changed since the conclusion of his NCAA season.

Winnipeg wanted to sign McGroarty to a professional contract in April but was unwilling to promise a path to playing time. Whereas McGroarty’s University of Michigan teammates Frank Nazar and Gavin Brindley signed with Chicago and Columbus, respectively — and played NHL games, like McGroarty’s former Michigan teammates Adam Fantilli and Luke Hughes did last season — the Jets were focused on their upcoming playoff run.

Sometimes a collegiate player will sign and step right into the NHL, helping the team in the playoffs. Matthew Knies did this for Toronto in 2023 and Cale Makar’s first games were played for Colorado during its 2019 playoff run.

The Jets didn’t view McGroarty as ready to make that kind of impact, nor were they ready to guarantee him a roster spot in the NHL next season. McGroarty could sign and come to training camp but risked being demoted to the AHL instead of trying to lead his Michigan team to a national championship.

Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff characterized McGroarty’s decision to return to Michigan instead of signing with Winnipeg this way.

“We made it very open to him at the onset that we were more than willing to sign him, more than willing to turn him pro. But in the same token, we need him to make that decision for what he feels is best for his development,” Cheveldayoff said in May. “I think Rutger is looking for an even bigger role where he can help lead a team to greatness and help his development there.”

So what happened between now and then? Why are the Jets suddenly exploring a trade of a top prospect with top-six forward potential and proven leadership abilities?

This isn’t a situation where the player wants out of Winnipeg because of his views on the city. Instead, there appears to be a disconnect between how Winnipeg’s player development viewed and communicated its plan with McGroarty and McGroarty’s view of his own future. The desire to play in the NHL played a big role in McGroarty’s decision not to sign in April; put simply, he viewed himself as more ready than the team did. At first, this difference in opinion didn’t appear to necessitate McGroarty’s exit from the organization. The relationship has changed since the start of McGroarty’s offseason, though. He no longer believes his future is with the Jets.

There’s no onus for the Jets to comment on a speculative situation and they did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

It does appear that is a situation where a good relationship between a prospect and his club became untenable. McGroarty is said to have enjoyed Winnipeg as a city and appeared to have a brilliant time at Jets development camp in 2023. His dad was seen wearing a Jets cap at the world juniors in Sweden and McGroarty was willing to sign a few months ago if NHL time was in the cards.

The league source tells The Athletic that McGroarty feels his path to the NHL is best suited in another organization.

It seems like a perfect storm emerged — that the Jets’ patient, long-term approach to player development combined with McGroarty’s NHL ambitions in a way that led to differing opinions that could not be overcome. McGroarty put together an excellent season, won gold at the world juniors and has watched — sometimes in person — as a handful of teammates played their first NHL games. It seems as though his determination is that his road to the NHL is brighter and potentially more immediate with another organization than it is in Winnipeg.

It’s possible that the Jets were right not to guarantee playing time to any prospect — even one as impressive as McGroarty. Their 2024 playoff focus was so extreme that Winnipeg left Cole Perfetti’s 19 NHL goals on the bench for the first four games of the playoffs. Winnipeg has always slow-played its prospects, preferring them to over-ripen instead of doing their development in the NHL. It’s also possible that McGroarty is wrong in his self-assessment or wrong to view his future as brighter outside of Winnipeg.

Still, it’s easy to wonder if the approach with McGroarty was so old-fashioned that it cost the Jets a quality player. Winnipeg’s developmental approach used to be discussed as among the best in the NHL — as it warranted, given the organization’s early success in turning draft picks into NHL players. The Jets haven’t had a lot of high picks in recent years — or a lot of draft picks, period — and they’re graduating fewer NHL impact players than they did in their early years. A McGroarty trade would come with much higher stakes than slow-playing Ville Heinola, taken 20th in 2019, or losing prospects Declan Chisholm or Johnathan Kovacevic to waivers so as to keep more experienced players. It would force a reconsideration of the Jets’ organizational approach to their top young players at all levels.

This isn’t to say Cheveldayoff would automatically lose a McGroarty trade. He’s shown tremendous patience dealing from similar situations and McGroarty is a blue-chip prospect held in tremendous esteem. Winnipeg may be able to use McGroarty to acquire a first-round pick — and a high one at that — or an older, more developed prospect who the front office views as ready to make an immediate NHL impact. McGroarty is also so substantial of a trade asset that he might be used to bring back a top-four defenceman or packaged to find an upgrade at second-line centre.

Either way, I’m under the impression that a trade is coming — and soon, likely before the draft.

(Photo: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)

Murat Ates blends modern hockey analysis with engaging storytelling as a staff writer for The Athletic NHL based in Winnipeg. Murat regularly appears on Winnipeg Sports Talk and CJOB 680 in Winnipeg and on podcasts throughout Canada and the United States. Follow Murat on Twitter @WPGMurat