Analysis | Leafs vs. Panthers: Who has the edge?

Toronto advanced for the first time since 2004. The Panthers upset the winningest team in NHL history. Here’s how they’ll match up when the series starts Tuesday at Scotiabank Arena.

The Maple Leafs admitted that finally winning a playoff round — as simple as that sounds — came as a huge relief.

They don’t have to answer any more questions about coming up short. And that means when they take on the Florida Panthers starting Tuesday night at Scotiabank Arena — Game 1 of the first second-round NHL series in this market in 19 years — the Leafs might play with the pizzazz they showed in the regular season, burden-free hockey that often brings out their best.

“It remains to be seen how it affects us,” said coach Sheldon Keefe. “There’s a sense of relief, and take a bit of a breath. It’s a big step to finally push through ... But the challenge for us is to use that as fuel, to continue to get better rather than get comfortable.

“You want to be confident. Comfortable, or complacent, there’s no room for that in the playoffs.”

The Panthers, meanwhile, are playing with house money. They just pulled off the biggest first-round upset ever in the Stanley Cup playoffs — taking down not just the Presidents’ Trophy winners but the winningest team in NHL history. The Boston Bruins are devastated (not that Leafs fans are shedding a tear). For the Panthers, it means they — like the Leafs — have reached another level.

“Going in against that Goliath, having those ups and downs, being behind, all the great ideas of sports — of taking a punch and getting off the mat, of the resilience,” said Panthers coach Paul Maurice. “I feel like it was a special one for us. I feel like it’s one of those special moments we get to keep.

“It makes you thirsty. It makes you want more.”

Here’s how the Leafs and Panthers stack up:

Season series

The Leafs beat the Panthers in three of four meetings and picked up a point in their only loss, in overtime. One of the wins came late in the season, when the Panthers were making their playoff push. That said, Florida’s lone win (3-2 in overtime on March 29) kick-started a run of six victories in a row overall that helped them earn a wild-card spot.

Forwards

Leafs: Their leading scorers in the first round were the guys who were supposed to be: Mitch Marner (11 points), Auston Matthews (nine), Morgan Rielly (eight), William Nylander, John Tavares and Ryan O’Reilly (seven each). The offence is working as intended, but there are issues at the bottom of the lineup. Sam Lafferty and Zach Aston-Reese struggled. Michael Bunting worked to regain trust after a three-game suspension.

Panthers: Matthew Tkachuk (five goals, six assists, motor mouth) has made friends all over the NHL by getting to know them in the crease and after the whistle. He’s a Hart Trophy candidate with the best scorer-to-snarl ratio in the league. Aleksander Barkov is the best superstar you’ve never heard of. Anthony Duclair, Sam Bennett, Sam Reinhart and Carter Verhaeghe offer offensive dynamics that are hard for opponents to deal with. Eetu Luostarinen has blossomed as a scorer and playmaker. Their bottom six isn’t quite at Tampa’s level, but Eric Staal has been there, done that.

Edge: Leafs

Defence

Leafs: Rielly (plus-eight) raised his game to new heights in the first round. Luke Schenn (plus-six) was better than advertised, and the pair dominated the Lightning at five-on-five. But clearing the zone was an issue for the rest. Jake McCabe looked uneasy. T.J. Brodie (usually a pillar of consistency) wasn’t himself, but still allowed only one goal at five-on-five. Timothy Liljegren is back with Mark Giordano.

Panthers: Brandon Montour (five goals, three assists, 16 penalty minutes) emerged as a Norris Trophy candidate and kept it up in the playoffs, a force in both ends. But he’s often paired with 35-year-old Marc Staal and they were exposed by the Bruins, allowing six goals at five-on-five while producing three. Not a lot of offence from the blue line, though Gustav Forsling is a minute muncher, while Aaron Ekblad and Radko Gudas tend not to take prisoners or ask questions.

Edge: Panthers

Goaltending

Leafs: No one can complain about Ilya Samsonov’s performance against Tampa, outside of the Game 1 blowout. In Games 2 to 5, his save percentage was .919, exactly his regular-season number. Tampa scored 13 times on 53 shots from high-danger positions, a high number. If the Leafs can address their issues clearing the zone, they’ll protect Samsonov a bit better.

Panthers: Well, now. Sergei Bobrovsky has been many things, including a two-time Vezina Trophy winner and the butt of jokes for a lack of success at a high salary. But now he’s giant slayer. When he was in Columbus, the Blue Jackets swept the Presidents’ Trophy winning Lightning in 2019. And while he backed up Alex Lyon when the first round began, it was him in net when the Panthers eliminated the Bruins.

Edge: Too close to call

Special teams

Leafs: With six power-play goals on 21 chances, they did OK against the Lightning: sixth overall at 28.6 per cent efficiency. Having Nylander quarterback the second unit seems like a good idea. He and Alex Kerfoot picked up goals. The penalty killers gave up five on 21 chances, so they won the battle.

Panthers: They scored five times on the power play (seventh overall, 25 per cent), but allowed Boston to score twice short-handed. Montour had two power-play goals. The penalty kill (14th at 59.3 per cent vs. Boston) is a weakness. They allowed 11 goals and scored once short-handed. It was like that in the regular season, too.

Edge: Leafs

Fancy stats

Leafs: The possession numbers don’t look good. They spent way too much time in their own end against the Lightning, and will have to improve on 45.37 per cent of possession time at five-on-five to advance. Still, they were pretty even on expected goals (12.52 to Tampa’s 13.03), an indication that they were still able to create chances. And they capitalized when they did, although low-danger chances — as scouting reports indicated — were the difference against Andrei Vasilevskiy. Their shooting percentage was an opportunistic 10.07, better than the regular season (8.99).

Panthers: Their possession numbers are only slightly better (12th at 47.83 per cent), but they were on the plus side in terms of creating high-danger chances against Boston (69 for, 60 against).

Edge: Panthers, by a hair

Coaching

Leafs: Sheldon Keefe tried to find whatever edge he could, whether it was using the media to send a message or keeping his cards close to his chest. In Game 6, using seven defencemen instead of six and 11 forwards instead of 12 turned out to be a stroke of brilliance. It gave him options on a blue line that was struggling, and the chance to double-shift his best players. Keefe can also be guilty of overthinking, especially if he worries too much about line matching.

Panthers: Maurice is not the rah-rah type. He lets players do the talking on the bench. The former Leafs coach has the Panthers playing a style similar to the Lightning. They forecheck well, pressure the defence at the blue line, hit, block shots and can lock you down if they get a lead.

Edge: Panthers

X-factor

Leafs: The second period. They were the NHL’s best in the middle frame in the regular season with 108 goals for, 69 against. They’ve been able to hem in opponents for long periods — but not in the first round, when Tampa outscored Toronto 8-7 in the second. They’ll need to get that mojo back.

Panthers: Scoring first, which they did in all four wins over the Bruins.

Edge: Leafs

Prediction

Panthers in seven