Padres vs Dodgers Series Preview - NLDS

Well, we knew it was coming. We just didn’t know it was coming.

Every other one of the higher seeds in the wild card lost their matchups, but the San Diego Padres prevailed and swept Atlanta 2-0 in the Wild Card. The Los Angeles Dodgers are the number one seed and with how this postseason is shaping up, it doesn’t look too good for them however good they are.

Let’s do our usual series preview. This time, for the NLDS.

Dodgers IL/Other Updates:

The Dodgers have called up Dalton Rushing and Max Muncy is working on some first base drills, meaning that the Dodgers could be without Freddie Freeman for a few games if not the whole postseason. Ohtani pitching is still a possibility, although it’s lowered every single day.

The Padres have once again blocked Dodgers fans (people living in LA) to purchase tickets for the game. Will that matter? Maybe. The Dodgers have lost 2 World Series when people were watching and have won a World Series with nobody watching in the stadium. They were also 52-29 at home and 46-35 on the road, even though they’re a well-traveling team. Now, imagine if they had absolutely no fans in Petco. That would kill them!

The Padres have demolished the Dodgers this year, going 7-3 in the regular season series. In their latest matchup (the second to last series in September), the Dodgers did win that specific series 2-1, which is how they clinched the playoffs and the division.

Let’s compare the players.

DODGERS:

Catcher: Will Smith

1st Base: Freddie Freeman

2nd Base: Gavin Lux

3rd Base: Max Muncy

Shortstop: Tommy Edman

Left Field: Teoscar Hernandez

Center Field: Andy Pages

Right Field: Mookie Betts

Designated Hitter: Shohei Ohtani

PADRES:

Catcher: Kyle Higashioka

1st Baseman: Donovan Solano

2nd Baseman: Jake Cronenworth

3rd Baseman: Manny Machado

Shortstop:  Xander Bogaerts

Left Field: Jurickson Profar

Center Field: Jackson Merrill

Right Field: Fernando Tatis Jr.

Designated Hitter: Luis Arraez

Starting with catcher, Smith has the advantage. He just signed a mega extension and Higashioka is 34 years old and has never been a full-time MLB catcher. This is a mismatch, even with Smith’s recent failures. Give the Dodgers a point.

A first baseman hits home runs, or at least has power. For the Padres and Solano, that’s not even a factor in his game. He’s on his sixth team in 11 seasons and while he has performed well for the Padres this season with a .286 BA and .343 OBP, Freeman is on another level. While he isn’t having his best season, he’s continued his 130+ OPS+ streak to 12 seasons now. How is that not good for you?

Let’s compare the stat line between Cronenworth and Lux for a second.

Cronenworth: 99 OPS+, 17 HR, 2.1 fWAR in 656 PA; -4 Outs Above Avg. at 2B
Lux: 101 OPS+, 10 HR, 1.5 fWAR in 487 PA; -4 Outs Above Avg. at 2B

The Dodgers are going to get another point here because Lux has revitalized himself in the second half with a.899 OPS. Cronenworth is at around .600, Which is why I’m going to give the Dodgers the point.

Muncy is a power hitter and my god is he good, but Machado is better. Less defensive mistakes, contact over power, and a stat line that screams at you. Here it is, by the way.

From May 20th ⇾ now: .296/.344/.525 with 24 homers and 82 RBIs in 109 games. While his defense hasn’t been above average this season, it’s been better thanMuncy’s. Give the Padres a point here.

Edman looks to be the shortstop for this series, but regardless of whether Miguel Rojas plays, Bogaerts has the better offensive production. Defense matters, but this is a short series and the Dodgers have one of the league’s top offenses. If Xander can’t step up his game, the Padres lose this series. Give this one to Bogaerts and the Padres.

For LF, here’s another stat line comparing Teoscar Hernandez and Jurickson Profar.

Teoscar Hernández: 137 OPS+, 33 HR, 3.5 fWAR in 652 PA; -9 Outs Above Avg. in LF
Jurickson Profar: 134 OPS+, 24 HR, 4.3 fWAR in 668 PA; -6 Outs Above Avg. in LF

I’m going to side with the Padres here only because I don’t trust Teoscar in big games. Teoscar has a batting average of .200 with 3 hits, 2 home runs, 4 RBIs, and 3 runs scored in his 4 postseason games. In fact, in a recent article for another blog, I actually analyzed Hernandez’s play. You can check that piece out here.

Profar on the other hand is incredibly good in the postseason with a .268 average and 20 hits. I’m going to give it to the Padres for this one.

Now to CF and if not for Paul Skenes, this would be the year Merrill would’ve won the ROY (still possible). Pages started incredibly hot but regressed towards the end. While he’s coming upward now, anything can happen come playoff time, and for rookies who haven’t established anything, the transition can be pretty hard. Take James Outman for an example. He had a .000 average in the postseason after an amazing rookie season. Jackson Merrill has done something historic this season, and that’s why the Padres will take this one.

RF with Betts against Tatis Jr. However good you think Tatis is, he’s not Mookie. Betts has been bad in the postseason, but Tatis has only played in the postseason one year. That year was in the shortened 2020 season. There weren’t any raucous crowds at that time, so…

Mookie on the other hand has played 58 postseason games and has a batting average of .251 with 58 hits, four homers, 18 RBIs, and 40 runs scored. I’m going to give this one to Mookie.

Finally, to the DH. The DH position has to be Ohtani leading the pack. Arraez is a contact hitter. While slow growth is good, it’s not the best option when you’re playing in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Ohtani is having one of the greatest seasons in history with a 50/50 season, plus breaking many Dodgers records. Arraez won the batting title and the triple crown. That’s it. Dodgers get the point.

So, the Dodgers barely edged out the Padres with a score of 5-4.

Pitching is going to matter too in this series.

The Padres have bullpen strength, but however much I criticize the Dodgers starting pitching, I think they have a slight advantage here, especially with the Joe Musgrove news.

DODGERS:

Game 1 Starter: Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Game 2 Starter: Jack Flaherty

Game 3 Starter: Walker Buehler

Game 4 Starter: Landon Knack

Game 5 Starter: TBD

PADRES:

Game 1 Starter: Dylan Cease

Game 2 Starter: Yu Darvish

Game 3 Starter: Martin Perez

Game 4 Starter: TBD

Game 5 Starter: TBD

I like Cease a lot and I do think he’s going to perform well, but with how things have been going for Yamamoto, I think that he might outperform him. This is a home game for the Dodgers too. Now, Flaherty is a different deal. He’s been trending in the wrong direction for his last 3 starts, while Darvish is going up. I’ll give Darvish that one. Things go down for the Padres from there. Buehler has been doing pretty well and Martin Perez has given up 12 runs in his last five starts. After that, you would have Landon Knack go up against Michael King if we see a Game four. King is a wild pitcher and even though he shut down an injury-riddled Braves team, with his performance against good teams with good lineups, I’m not sure we’ll see him even last 3 innings.

I’m pretty scared for the Dodgers in this series. The Padres have a good team and like Profar said, there is a different level of intensity for the NLDS this year. They may be doing it for Peter Seidler. They may be doing it for themselves. All I can say is, we’re going to have firecrackers.

My predictions? Dodgers in 5. For the Dodgers, I think Will Smith is going to impact them the most. For the Padres, I think the bullpen will be the most helpful.

That’s it for me.

Other MLB Updates: The Mets, Tigers, Royals, and Padres advanced to the Divisional Series Brent Rooker underwent surgery.

Main Image: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images