OKC Thunder First-Round Playoff Preview Against New Orleans ...

OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLAHOMA - FEBRUARY 13: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder ... [+] drives past Trey Murphy III #25 of the New Orleans Pelicans and Brandon Ingram #14 of the New Orleans Pelicans during the third quarter at Paycom Center on February 13, 2023 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images)

The opening contest of a seven-game series between the Oklahoma City Thunder and New Orleans Pelicans is set to kick off tonight. It will be the No. 1 seed Thunder hosting the No. 8 seed Pelicans in OKC at Paycom Center, in front of a crowd that hasn’t seen a home playoff game since 2019.

During the three contests between these two teams in the regular season, Oklahoma City came out on top in two of them. The only matchup that New Orleans won came in the first two weeks of the season, when the Pelicans came back from down by 22 points to get a late victory.

It’s important to note that Zion Williamson will miss at least the first four games of this series with a left hamstring strain he suffered in a game earlier this week. Even without him in the lineup, this is a quality Pelicans team that will be looking for revenge after the Thunder eliminated them from the postseason a year ago during the NBA’s Play-In Tournament.

As this series unfolds, what are some of the key factor that could ultimately make the difference in who comes out on top?

Pace of Play

Oklahoma City plays at once of the quickest paces in the entire NBA, which ultimately means more possessions occur in a given game. Conversely, the Pelicans have played at a much slower pace overall this season, sitting in the back half of the league in terms of both pace and total possessions.

As a result, the Pelicans don’t take many shots relative to a team like the Thunder. New Orleans is 23rd in the NBA in shot attempts per game overall and 24th in 3-point tries per contest. With that in mind, the Pelicans make their shots count, shooting at a very impressive clip from all over the floor. This isn’t a run-and-gun offense, but it is an efficient one.

One thing to watch for in this series is which team is able to dictate the pace of play. If it’s a fast game, OKC might have an advantage. But if New Orleans can slow things down, it could be the opposite.

Individual Defensive Assignments

New Orleans is a very balanced team, and one of the few in this league that was roughly in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating during the regular season. The defensive side of the ball is where the Pelicans thrive, boasting the sixth-best defense in the NBA to this point.

This is driven by not only great team defense and effective schemes, but also by the spectacular individual defenders on the roster. Most notably, Herb Jones is able to change the game completely on that end. When looking at who has been able to slow down Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander the past two seasons, perhaps nobody is better than Jones. Furthermore, Jose Alvarado is a pest that can be disruptive on defense while Trey Murphy III boasts length and versatility as a defender.

As a result, expect Oklahoma City to switch up offensive schemes regularly throughout this series in attempt to dictate how that scenario plays out. If slowing down Gilgeous-Alexander is the focal point of New Orleans’ game plan, the complimentary pieces around him will need to step up and contribute. Expect Jalen Williams, Josh Giddey and Aaron Wiggins to play key offensive roles at points in this series.

Center Battle

During the three matchups between New Orleans and OKC this season, the battle of centers has been an interesting one. While the Thunder roll out a modern, slender center in Chet Holmgren who spaces the floor and operates on the perimeter, the Pelicans start a strong big in Jonas Valanciunas, who plays a much more traditional, physical style and does his damage near the rim.

If Valanciunas is able to dominate the paint, pull down a high number of rebounds and stay on the floor, it could mean trouble for Oklahoma City. The Thunder lacks significant size and doesn’t necessarily have a player that possesses the size to match him.

It will be in the Thunder’s favor to force the Pelicans to play small and keep Valanciunas on the bench. Even then, Larry Nance Jr. has proven to be an effective small ball center for New Orleans of late, so keep an eye on him in this series.

Perimeter Shooting

Oklahoma City and New Orleans finished the regular season as the first and fourth most efficient 3-point shooting teams in the league respectively. Furthermore, while both of these squads knock down their shots from beyond the arc at a high rate, neither takes many.

The Thunder attempted 34.2 (16th in NBA) triples per game in the regular season, which is just slightly more than the 32.6 (24th) from the Pelicans. As this series takes place, there will be numerous times in which the battle from beyond the arc makes the difference. Whether this turns into a shootout or not, converting on the 3-point attempts taken will be at the top of both teams’ priorities.

The winner of this series will move on to play either the LA Clippers or Dallas Mavericks, depending on who comes out on top in that series. In the meantime, expect this series between the Thunder and Pelicans to be a competitive one, even with Williamson missing time.