State Your Case: Canucks or Oilers in Western 2nd Round of playoffs

The Vancouver Canucks will face the Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference Second Round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The Canucks, the top seed in the Pacific Division, defeated the Nashville Predators in six games in the first round.

The Oilers, who finished five points behind the Canucks in the Pacific Division, eliminated the Los Angeles Kings in five games in the first round.

Game 1 of the best-of-7 series will be in Vancouver at a date to be determined.

Edmonton lost all four games in regulation against Vancouver this season, outscored 21-7.

The two teams have have faced each other twice in the Stanley Cup Playoffs with the Oilers winning each time, most recently a six-game victory in the 1992 Smythe Division Finals.

Who will win this time around? That's the question before staff writer Derek Van Diest and senior director of editorial Shawn P. Roarke in this playoff edition of State Your Case.

Roarke: Forget the lopsided regular-season series -- much of that happened early on. Each team is a far different version of itself now. The Canucks are not the offensive powerhouse they were at the start of the season, but have found a way to win low-scoring games in the playoffs and score opportune goals. They scored 13 goals in the first round against the Predators, which seems like the output in one game when this Oilers team is clicking. But they allowed 12 goals, all the more impressive when you consider they have started three different goalies. Thatcher Demko, a finalist for the Vezina Trophy, was injured in Game 1. Casey DeSmith didn’t play after Game 3 and Arturs Silovs, who had nine games of NHL experience, allowed five goals through the final three games. Silovs was great, but he benefited from a commitment to defense by his teammates. That will carry over into the round and give Vancouver a chance to win more low-scoring games, which is becoming its specialty.

Van Diest: I don’t know, Shawn, I have trouble believing the Oilers are going to lose to a third-string goalie if Demko doesn’t return and DeSmith can’t go. Silovs played well, but Nashville doesn’t have the scoring prowess Edmonton does and right now the Oilers are flying, particularly on the power play. Edmonton was 9-for-20 (45.0 percent) with the man-advantage against Los Angeles and scored two goals just as penalties had expired, so they essentially scored 11 power-play goals in the series. I’m not sure how the Canucks are going to be able to handle that if the Oilers are able to draw a lot of penalties. Conversely, Edmonton's penalty kill was perfect in the first round, going 12-for-12. I understand Vancouver has a better power play than Los Angeles with a lot more options, and defenseman Quinn Hughes running the point is a huge threat, but I still don’t think they have enough to win the special-teams battle. The Canucks are going to have to generate more offense than it did against the Predators to advance past the Oilers, because 13 goals in six games simply won’t cut it.

Roarke: It doesn’t matter who is in goal for the Canucks. They are a team of destiny. Did Adin Hill strike you as a Cup-winning goalie when he came in for the Vegas Golden Knights last season in the second round against the Oilers? I’ll answer. No! But it didn’t matter because the Golden Knights decided to commit themselves to defense and Hill, who had never held a starting job anywhere in the NHL, won 11 games, played to a .932 save percentage and hoisted the Stanley Cup. Also, you don’t have to tell me about the Oilers power play. It’s deadly, perhaps the most efficient I’ve seen. But what if there is nobody in the box this series? Vancouver is smart enough to play this series at 5-on-5 as much as possible. What did Edmonton do do 5-on-5 against Los Angeles? By your math, they scored 10 goals in five games (12 5-on-5 goals, minus the two you took credit for as quasi-PP goals in your argument above). I like my odds if the Canucks have to win 3-2 games instead of 5-4 games.

Van Diest: I think in this series it will matter who is in goal for the Canucks, and I have a strong suspicion it won’t be the same guy throughout the series. Hill played in front of a big tough defense last season with Vegas and Edmonton struggled to get to rebounds in front of the net. But it wasn’t offense that let the Oilers down, it was their own goalie, which is not an issue this season. Stuart Skinner had a 3.68 goals-against-average and .883 save percentage in the playoffs a year ago and that's not good enough to beat anybody. This season, he had a 2.59 GAA and .910 save percentage in the first round. Edmonton is a much different team than the one Vancouver beat up in the first month of the season and Connor McDavid did not play in the final game of the season series. I don’t think the Canucks have enough to handle centers Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, each desperate to win the Stanley Cup. Vancouver did well to win the Pacific and are ahead of schedule in my opinion, but did not show enough in the first round to make me believe it can handle the Edmonton offense. I think it will be a battle, but the Oilers will come out on top.