Plot thickens: What will Edmonton Oilers do on D-Day with Dylan ...

This in from the St. Louis Blues on social media: “The Oilers have one day to decide whether to match the offers.”

Yes, it’s D-day for the Edmonton Oilers, one of the most consequential days in the team’s recent history, as management must decide on whether or not to match the St. Louis offer sheets on promising young Oilers Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway.

The final deadline is Tuesday at 7:30 a.m., so I presume all the action happens today.

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After two big trades on Sunday, the plot has thickened considerably. It seems like Edmonton is about to match Broberg’s deal while letting go of Holloway, but who knows?

There are still many options out there for the Oilers, and many factors to consider. Here are the  main ones:

1. If Philip Broberg was looking for a show of faith from the Oilers, he got one. Having moved out Ceci, following the exit of Vincent Desharnais, the Oilers are now down two d-men who played considerable minutes for the team last year, Ceci the sixth most minutes on the team, 1582 minutes in all situations, and Desharnais the 11th most, 1227. Edmonton also opened up cap space, moving out Ceci’s $3.25 million per year and Desharnais, who will get $ 2.0 million this year in Vancouver.

Their departures opens up wide the Edmonton roster for other d-man. Most hockey pundits assumed on Sunday that Edmonton will now match on Broberg. As Jeremy Rutherford, St.Louis Blues writer for The Athletic puts it, “With Edmonton making two trades Sunday, it appears the Oilers are setting up to match Broberg and not Holloway. I agree with the Broberg speculation, but I don’t think matching Holloway is out of the question.”

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If Edmonton matches, Broberg would take that ice time and much of that cap space previously allotted to Ceci and Desharnais. It’s a reasonable assumption, and it’s what I would prefer to see, given Broberg’s promise and his solid play in the Stanley Cup Final. But who knows?

2. Edmonton now has much more leverage over St. Louis. Before it would have been a stretch for Edmonton to match on Broberg, let along match on both Broberg and Holloway. Now matching one or both has the air of reality, especially if Evander Kane needs to and agrees to go on Long Term Injured Reserve.

If St. Louis wants Broberg and/or Holloway, it could well be forced now to sweeten the pot. A second round pick for Broberg and a third round pick for Holloway are laughable returns for two such players. Are the Blues willing now to step up and given adequate compensation to the Oilers? Both of the players are worth a first round pick in trade. Could a big trade brew up between the two teams? Stranger things have happened.

3. Not many fans had ever heard of Ty Emberson before Sunday’s trade with San Jose, but he’s something of an analytics darling, seen as a solid defensive d-man on a bad Sharks team. I don’t put a lot of weight in the conceptual model used by some analytics type — where individual players are essentially ranked based on the actions of large groups of their teammates. At the same time, if those numbers tilt in Emberson’s favour that’s not a bad thing. And some folks who have watched Emberson play, such as hockey writer Bruce Curlock of Oilers Nations, give him a good report. I put far more weight in that kind of close observation.

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And Emberson is 24, at an age when unheralded d-men often step up and figure out how to make their mark in the NHL with solid defence and decent puck-moving. Emberson could be in that category. Perhaps the Oilers believe they have a solid NHL player here, maybe even a guy who can take Desharnais’ minutes but also some of Ceci’s minutes.

Also of note is that not only did Emberson play for Kris Knoblauch in the AHL in 2022-23, he was named the AHL’s best defensive d-man in the Eastern Division.

4. Any notion that Edmonton can match both Broberg and Holloway depends on Evander Kane going on Long Term Injured Reserve. We’ve heard insider reports that is likely to happen with Kane. But who knows?

If that is indeed the case, I see the Oilers definitely matching on Broberg and maybe even Holloway too. But Holloway’s situation seems more iffy. The Oilers are loaded at forward right now, but not on defence, which would make retaining Broberg the priority. Edmonton’s salary cap is much easier to manage without Holloway earning $2.3 million this year.

As bullish as I am on Holloway — a big, fast forward with some skill and a willingness to hit hard and often — he was also iffy defensively last season, one of the weakest Oilers forwards. He gave up one of the highest rates of mistakes on Grade A shots of any Oilers forward both in the regular season and the playoffs. He’s got plenty of speed, and he played his way up from the press box to the second line at the end of the season, but maybe his days as an Oiler are done.

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The Oilers did acquire a big, aggressive winger in Vasili Podkolzin on Sunday, presumably to replace Holloway.

At the same, given up on Holloway for a third round pick is a painful pill.  Edmonton might be better off retaining him and working to solve the cap situation some other way.

If the Oilers match Holloway, they can’t trade him for a year but could they maybe use the waiver wire creatively, waiving Holloway, then getting adequate compensation in a side deal with the team at the top of the waiver wire pile, which right now is San Jose? Would it be possible to waive Holloway to San Jose, then trade an Edmonton minor league player to the Sharks perhaps for a second and a third round pick? This notion has been discussed on Oilers social media. I’m not certain if it would be permitted, but it might be worth trying it as opposed to letting Holloway go to St. Louis for so little.

5. If Holloway moves on, Edmonton can go with the size and aggression of Podkolzin or the skill and hockey sense of Matthew Savoie, not bad options at all. Centre Noah Philp might also find himself in the mix, not to mention more opportunity for veterans Derek Ryan and Corey Perry.

McCURDY: The Ceci for Emberson trade

STAPLES: Oilers acquire Vasili Podkolzin from Canucks. Does this mean goodbye to Dylan Holloway?

STAPLES: Oilers will regret if they move on from Broberg without giving him the full Paul Coffey treatment

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