DFS Saturday: Oilers and Avalanche a Gold Mine
This being my first Dobber article of the year – and yes, I know the season has already started – it's an opportunity to throw out a few predictions against the mainstream. Already, the Edmonton Oilers have been anointed as the front runners for the Stanley Cup, Auston Matthews has won the Rocket Richard, and Connor McDavid the Art Ross. I have heard on the radio that there are seven legitimate teams already in the playoffs for both the Eastern and Western conference, and where that eighth team might come from, we're allowed to debate. Au contraire! Games must be played, and the pundits breathe the same air that the fourth-liners in Calgary do. And they're really not much smarter.
My personal predictions are simple. Two, yes TWO, of those Eastern shoo-ins (alphabetically BOS, CAR, FLA, NJD, NYR, TBL, TOR) won't be playing after April 18. Just like defensemen are anointed as Norris Trophy favorites in October, the experts just know, right? However, four teams in the East were within seven points of a playoff spot, and Ottawa added a Vezina-winning goalie. Despite their 0-3-0 start, don't count out the Sabres to make the NHL playoffs. Their seven young defensemen (average age 24.6, with two overall #1 draft picks) are too good to suffer those epic Sabre losing streaks of the past.
For my daily fantasy lineups, I'm using DraftKings. The rules are simple: you choose a lineup of two centers, three wings, two D-men, a utility skater, and one goalkeeper. You have $50,000 to spend, so average out a couple of elite stars, some solid next-level guys, and at least one from the sale rack. Scoring, shots, and blocks all count – power-play goals the most. A goalie victory is important, but so are having many saves. It truly takes playing just once to learn. Good luck!
Mismatches!
Chicago at Edmonton
Either of these contests would be a gold mine for daily fantasy bets. Both? Choosing players from the home teams should make up the majority of a winning lineup. Teams hungry to atone for their start would have to be headed by the Edmonton Oilers, after last year's opening-season lesson. They won't be 0-2. Focusing wagers just on their first power play, I'd be looking at Leon Draisaitl ($8100), then Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($5500) and Evan Bouchard ($6600). Combined, these three players had one hundred power-play points in 2023-24. Yeah, there's this other guy – but you can't fit everyone in, and Connor McDavid ($9500) versus Draisaitl FOR JUST ONE GAME is probably even for production. Connor Bedard ($7700) will get his licks in during an 82-game season, but not in Edmonton. He'll see Darnell Nurse and Mattias Ekholm in his nightmares for a few sleeps. Oh – the Hawks played Friday night. Feeding frenzy.
Columbus at Colorado
Taking top Oilers' stars might mean we need to dial down on the Avalanche. They're equally ready to prove themselves better than the 8-4 pasting they took from Vegas, and the Blue Jackets will feel the pain. There are still juicy options against a Columbus team that's been widely regarded by preseason prognosticators as last in the Metropolitan Division. With Gabriel Landeskog, Artturi Lehkonen, Valeri Nichushkin, and Jonathan Drouin all unavailable, it's an opportunity for Casey Mittelstadt ($4100) at second-line center, or for bettors to take a flyer on Nikolai Kovalenko ($2500) or Logan O'Connor ($2500) from the clearance sale. The Blue Jackets may struggle to score in the Mile High City, and although their defense and goalkeeping should be improved from last year – still, the race to the swift and the battle to the strong.
Diving in deep
Anaheim at San Jose
Hey, these teams aren't going to play a zero-zero game into overtime, so how do we find value farther down the schedule? First, decide for yourself which squad can start the season with the chemistry that the other one envies? For me, that's the Ducks. The best of their offense last season was Frank Vatrano ($5800), with his 37 goals and 272 shots. Both Alex Killorn ($3800) and Ryan Strome ($3100) had disappointing seasons in 2023-24, and are great bounce-back plays at this price. But then look also at the shiny new (newer?) toys of Trevor Zegras ($3600), Mason McTavish ($4200), and Troy Terry ($4400).
It's Anaheim's first regular season matchup. Only the Ducks and Washington Capitals waited until Saturday to start the season – but it does mean that Lukas Dostal ($7800) will get the start. He finished last season as the de facto starter with an 0.917 SV% and wins against LA and Vegas in his final five games. John Gibson, recovering from his appendectomy, might find he's the 1-B upon his return.
All-Canada contest
Both Ottawa and Montreal enter tonight undefeated. Yeah, not a big sample size, right? I picked Jake Sanderson ($4300) and Drake Batherson ($5300) to round out my DFS lineup. My Stay-Away games were Pittsburgh at Toronto, Nashville at Detroit, and New Jersey at Washington largely based upon the wide variation of what to expect from all six of those teams.
My lineup
Centers – Draisaitl, Mittelstadt
Wings – Nugent-Hopkins, Batherson, Vatrano
Defense – Bouchard, Sanderson
Utility – Kovalenko
Goalie – Dostal
Side bet: $5 on the Sens to cover a 1.5 goal spread (pays +170).
Each arena in the league will have some remembrance for Johnny and Matthew Gaudreau, but most (all?) of my readers aren't playing pro hockey. Give at least one extra hug to someone you care about, every day. You'll never regret that.
