Trump wins Ohio for a third time • Ohio Capital Journal
Former President Donald Trump won Ohio for the third time Tuesday, according to projections by the Associated Press. Trump previously won the former swing state in both the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Trump won Ohio in 2016 by eight points, taking 51% of the vote compared to 43% for Hillary Clinton. In 2020, Trump again won by eight points in Ohio, that time taking 53% of the vote compared to 45% for President Joe Biden. Ohio went for Democratic President Barack Obama twice, in 2012 and 2008.
In 2024, Trump selected junior Ohio U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate. Vance is in his first term in the U.S. Senate, having first been elected in 2022.
Trump’s margin on Tuesday was more than polls predicted. The results cut against the notion of a political realignment in the wake of a 2022 U.S. Supreme Court ruling allowing states to ban abortions.
Less than a week out, polling averages gave Trump a six-point lead in the Buckeye State. That was a bit less than the eight-point margin by which Trump won Ohio in 2020 and 2016.
The fact that Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris wasn’t able to come closer comes after what some professional analysts praised as a savvy Democratic national campaign that was hurriedly stood up after an aging President Joe Biden quit the race on July 21.
But some issues specific to Ohio seem likely also to have played an important role. One might be Trump’s selection of Vance as a running mate.
In an earlier era, presidential candidates looked for politicians from critical swing states in the hope that their running mate could deliver them. Vance, however, comes from a state that Trump won comfortably — twice.
While Vance didn’t win Ohio as comfortably in 2022 in an election that was dominated by his Republican colleagues, the presence of an Ohioan on the ticket might well have improved Trump’s numbers in the Buckeye State.
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