The 2024 NHL Draft Big Board - Compiled public prospect rankings ...

Welcome to NHL Draft Week here at Sound Of Hockey. And we’re kicking things off with year three of the Sound Of Hockey Big Board, ranking prospects for the 2024 NHL Draft, set to kick off on Friday. We also made a mid-season version earlier this year that you can check out here. 

What is the Sound Of Hockey Big Board? It’s a ranking built on a compilation of reputable draft analyst and public scouting service lists. This year, we gathered ranking data from 20 sources. (See the complete list below.)

We consolidated the various ranks into a single composite ranking by a weighted geometric mean calculation. Why do we use geomean? If you’re curious you can find an applicable explanation from a different context here. Weights were assigned based on our assessment of the depth of experience, sourced reporting, or scouting insight factored into the component lists themselves. For example, Bob McKenzie’s list for TSN, which is built based on conversations with scouts, is weighted the most. The voluminous work done by independent scouts at Elite Prospects is next in line, and so forth.

The Sound Of Hockey Big Board also provides information on each player’s measurements, statistics, and playing experience for the 2023-24 season, mostly drawn from Elite Prospects, NHL Central Scouting, and the NHL Draft Combine. 

All told, the Sound Of Hockey Big Board covers approximately 9,000 draft-eligible prospects. (That is not a typo. Last year the Big Board covered almost 7,000 prospects. This year there’s even more.)

Based on what we have seen, we continue to believe the Sound Of Hockey Big Board is the most comprehensive source anywhere in compiling draft-prospect-related information in one place. To this point, the Big Board will be getting an additional injection of player information starting Wednesday. Call that a tease.

Scouting lists supplemented by data work

If you’ve been following along, you’ll know we’ve also published our data-only 2024 NHL Draft prospect rankings throughout the 2023-24 season: final version, midseason version, and preseason version.

Those data-only rankings are built on the foundation of an NHL equivalency or “NHLe.” What is NHLe? NHLe is a method to compare the scoring proficiency of players in the various professional and junior leagues across the globe. I used Thibaud Chatel’s model, which is the most up-to-date public research in the area. Check out Chatel’s Substack for an in-depth discussion of NHLe. For this project, I used Chatel’s newest model, which has been updated to account for 2023-24 season data.

From there, I made a number of adjustments based on factors known to impact the probability of prospect success, including age, height, re-draft status, position, percentage of total team offense produced, and relative on-ice plus-minus. Read up on the methodology here and here.

I bring this up because I included my final NHLe data score as a source on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board at a minuscule weight in order to give the board some “order” for the prospects that went unranked by all 20 sources. I explained why I did this in an earlier post.

The Sound Of Hockey Big Board

So, without further ado, you can find the Sound Of Hockey Big Board in Google Sheets HERE.

Important note on using the Sound Of Hockey Big Board: If you want to filter the data by various categories, highlight row 3, then select “Data,” “Filter Views,” and “Create New Temporary Filter View.” This will allow you to manipulate the data in a way visible only to you.

Here is a snapshot of top 65 prospects in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, sorted by the overall composite rank:

Compiled rankings

Here are the scouting sources we used (so far) in building the Sound Of Hockey Big Board:

NHL Central Scouting: 410 ranked prospects on 4 separate lists Elite Prospects ($$): 134 ranked prospects McKeen’s ($$): 300 ranked prospects FC Hockey: 100 ranked prospects Dobber Prospects: 128 ranked prospects, plus honorable mentions HockeyProspect.com: 32 ranked prospects DraftPro: 100 ranked prospects Recruit Scouting: 128 ranked prospects Smaht Scouting: 100 ranked prospects, plus honorable mentions  Scouching: 82 ranked prospects, plus additional players to watch Corey Pronman, The Athletic ($$): 129 ranked prospects* Scott Wheeler, The Athletic ($$): 100 ranked prospects, plus honorable mentions Chris Peters, FloHockey: 100 ranked prospects Craig Button, TSN: 96 ranked prospects Jason Bukala, Sportsnet: 75 ranked prospects Tony Ferrari, The Hockey News: 100 ranked prospects Peter Baracchini, The Hockey Writers: 128 ranked prospects Ryan Kennedy, The Hockey News: 120 ranked prospects Steven Ellis, Daily Faceoff: 120 ranked prospects Bob McKenzie, TSN: 90 ranked prospects, plus honorable mentions

*Note: This may not be Corey Pronman’s final list, but it is the most recent list available as of June 25, 2024, three days before the draft.

Caveats on using the Big Board 

At this point, a few more words on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board and its uses are likely in order.

First, when you click through to the full composite draft board, you will see that many of the individual rankings are grayed out beyond the top 32. This is because those rankings are behind a paywall. To get to Corey Pronman’s full ranking of prospects, for example, a subscription to The Athletic is required. While we utilized all of the individual rankings listed above to develop our composite list, we will not be sharing subscriber-only individual rankings in the public version of the composite big board.

Second, the Big Board does not reflect our view on these prospects. We at Sound Of Hockey have read reports, watched some videos, and crunched a few numbers. I’ll be putting up more thoughts of my own before the draft, but that is not what this exercise is about. The Sound Of Hockey Big Board is simply a tabulation of the rankings of others. A player’s ranking has nothing to do with whether any of us here at Sound Of Hockey “like” the player or not.

Third, and finally, it bears emphasis that a “composite” ranking is not the be-all and end-all. In many ways, finding the “best” public list and trusting it is preferable. A consensus board cannot explain why one prospect is ranked higher than another, and it certainly cannot displace the work of scouts or draft reporters.

But a composite ranking can provide some added information. Think of it as the cherry on top of the sundae, not the sundae itself.

How so? In the first year of this Big Board I used the case of Brad Lambert as an example. This year Trevor Connelly could be an instructive case. Both players are talented but viewed as risky for different reasons, and had widely varying rankings on individual public boards. How do we synthesize that information? A composite approach can exploit the wisdom of the crowd. Connelly’s final ranking may blend the upside and risk, placing him in a “fair” or “expected” position.

Three Big Board takeaways

We will return before the draft with more thoughts on certain prospects and which ones might be the best fit for the Seattle Kraken specifically, but in the meantime, here are three topline takeaways.

No debate at No. 1. For the second straight year, we have a consensus No. 1 overall prospect. Macklin Celebrini ranked No. 1 on every list included in our sample. (Note that NHL Central Scouting’s ranking is split into four lists, so Central Scouting actually has four players ranked “No. 1.” But I have little doubt NHL Central Scouting believes Celebrini is the best prospect in this draft.) While Celebrini may not bring the electric skill of a Connor Bedard, he plays at a high level in all facets of the game. In particular, his hockey sense, vision, and passing ability have drawn Sidney Crosby-lite comparisons. He will almost certainly be the pick at No. 1 overall by the San Jose Sharks and a challenge in the Pacific Division for years to come.

Consensus on valuable defensemen. In our data-only ranking, we had four consecutive defensemen rounding out a standout top five after Celebrini: Zeev Buium (No. 2), Zayne Parekh (No. 3), Artyom Levshunov (No. 4), and Sam Dickinson (No. 5). The scouts largely agreed, ranking all four within the top-eight: Buium (No. 4 on the Big Board), Parekh (No. 8), Levshunov (No. 3), and Dickinson (No. 7). It just so happens the Kraken have the No. 8 pick and a need for additional depth on the blue line.

A big year for Norwegian hockey. A Norwegian has never been drafted in the first round of the NHL Draft. This year, the Sound Of Hockey Big Board foresees two Norwegians as first-round picks: forward Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (ranked No. 15) and defenseman Stian Solberg (No. 21). To make matters even sweeter for Norway, both may go before Sweden’s highest-ranked player, Alfons Freij (No. 26). And two first-round picks could match or surpass Finland too, with only Konsta Helenius (No. 11) and Emil Hemming (No. 29) seen as Finnish first-round picks.

Local connections in the draft 

While the Seattle Thunderbirds aren’t the same draft powerhouse they were in 2023, there are still a number of Pacific Northwest connections in the 2024 NHL Draft. Here are a few of the players with local tie-ins on the Sound Of Hockey Big Board:

Berly Catton, F, Spokane Chiefs, WHL: ranked No. 6 on the Big Board Tij Iginla, F, Kelowna Rockets, WHL (played with the Thunderbirds from 2021-23): No. 9 Julius Miettinen, F, Everett Silvertips, WHL: No. 41 Tarin Smith, D, Everett Silvertips, WHL: No. 72 Maxmilian Curran, F, Tri-City Americans, WHL: No. 121 Lukas Matecha, G, Tri-City Americans, WHL: No. 157 Dawson Cowan, G, Spokane Chiefs, WHL: No. 167 William McIsaac, D, Spokane Chiefs, WHL: No. 171 Kenta Isogai, F, Wenatchee Wild, WHL: No. 189 Dominik Rymon, F, Everett Silvertips, WHL: No. 192 Kaden Shahan, F, Sioux City Musketeers, USHL (born in Everett): No. 206 Eric Jamieson, D, Everett Silvertips, WHL (2023 Kraken development camp invite): No. 214 Final thoughts

The 2024 NHL Draft kicks off with Round 1 on Friday, June 28, at 4:00 p.m. PT. Rounds 2 through 7 start on Saturday at 8:30 am PT. 

In the meantime, here again is a link to the 2024 Sound Of Hockey Big Board. Bookmark it, share it, and consult it between now and the draft. Keep it close during the draft itself because in the past, the data has been a pretty strong indicator of what the Kraken (and other teams) will do. In the meantime, similar to last year, we’ll return before the draft with some opinions on Sound Of Hockey Big Board targets and with a Seattle Kraken mock draft.