FanDuel NFL Best Bets: TSN staff picks for Week 16
Each week, members from our betting team will share their best bets from the slate of NFL games in hopes of building the ultimate 8-leg parlay on FanDuel.
This year, we will give you four best bets from our team while also the most popular prop bet, side and touchdown bet of the week.
This week, according to the traders at FanDuel those four props are the following:
Most Popular Side: Lions -6.5 at Bears
Most Popular Total: Eagles at Commanders over 45.5
Most Popular Prop: Joe Burrow o 272.5 passing yards
Most Popular Anytime TD Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs -300
Let's see if we can cash another 170-1 parlay this year.
Domenic Padula: -114 Parlay Bucs ML | Bills ML | Packers ML
Call me jaded after watching Justice Hill and Tank Dell both go down on Saturday and ruin other people’s parlays. The assignment is to find a bet that is the most likely to cash. I’ve done that all season, and I think this bet has a good chance to cash as well. The Bucs have won four in a row to retake pole position atop the NFC South. One week after beating the Chargers by 23 points, they’ll visit a Cowboys side that is 0-5 against the spread as a home underdog this season. There have been some good vibes in Dallas after wins over the Giants and Panthers, but Tampa Bay will represent a significant step up in competition. I’ll take Baker Mayfield and the Bucs to win outright on Sunday Night Football and bring down the numbers with a couple of important wins by the Bills and Packers against inferior opponents.
Connor Ford: Trey McBride Anytime Touchdown (+115)
It’s finally time. Last week, Trey McBride set the NFL record for the most receptions in a single season without a receiving touchdown. This week, he’s going to find the end zone against the Panthers.
McBride leads the Cardinals with a 36.96% target share in the red zone, so it’s shocking that he hasn’t found pay dirt yet. He has nine targets inside the 10-yard line, which ranks T-4th among all players this season. The opportunities have been there – it’s just a matter of time.
The Panthers have allowed the most receiving touchdowns (10) to the tight end position, so the matchup is certainly favourable. Kyler Murray even had a social media post with the caption “85 will touch the endzone soon, I promise”. That’s good enough for me to bet on McBride to score a touchdown this week.
Drew Morrison: Bijan Robinson Over 86.5 Rushing Yards
Make way for the Michael Penix era in Atlanta. The Falcons 8th overall pick is about to make his first NFL start. But it’s last year’s 8th overall pick that could be the biggest beneficiary. Bijan Robinson is quietly coming into his own. 86.5 is a big number, but Bijan has gone over it in four of his last five games. It’s the most consistent and productive stretch of his career and he should be the biggest part of a game plan that aims to take pressure off their rookie pivot. Oh, and they're playing the Giants. New York is tied for the worst record in the league at 2-and-12 and they have the second-worst run defence in the NFL, allowing over 143 yards a game on the ground.
Luke Bellus: Craig Reynolds Over 22.5 Rushing Yards
Next man up.
That's been the mentality for Dan Campbell and his Detroit Lions this season and after their backfield was dealt a massive blow due to an injury to David Montgomery it seems like Craig Reynolds might be the next member on this team asked to step up.
Reynolds has 51 yards on just 12 carries this year and has averaged 4.3 per carry in his four years with the Lions.
While the Lions remain the most injured team in the NFL, one unit that has avoided the injury bug has been their offensive line, which ranks as one of the top in the league.
With cold weather and wind expected all game in Chicago, I envision the Lions leaning on the run game, featuring a heavy dose of Jahmyr Gibbs.
And while I suspect a big day for Gibbs, I also see Reynolds chipping in with his fair share. On Thanksgiving the Lions ran 32 times against Chicago with Montgomery getting 21 of those and Gibbs having nine with Jameson Williams getting two.
In their only other outdoor game this year, Week 9 at Green Bay, they ran the ball 28 times with Montgomery getting 17 and Gibbs logging 11.
Let's say Detroit runs it 25 times this week and Reynolds only has five of those. He's averaging 4.3 yards per carry this year, and the Bears are allowing 4.7 per attempt in 2024.
That gets us right around our 22.5 number. I'm playing this because I could see him stumbling into a few more touches, or hoping he breaks off a big one.
I have also played a ladder with Reynolds at 50+ (+600), 60+ (+1000) and 70+ rushing yards (+1400), but for the sake of the parlay I'm sticking with over 22.5 as my best bet.
