Polls close in 2 federal byelections that will be closely watched on ...

John Paul Tasker · CBC News

· Posted: Sep 16, 2024 4:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 2 minutes ago

The polls have closed for federal byelections in Manitoba and Quebec and Elections Canada is saying results will be reported tonight despite a record number of candidates in one of the ridings.

The results of these two local contests are being watched closely because there could be national implications depending on who voters send to Parliament Hill.

One seat, the Winnipeg-area riding of Elmwood-Transcona, has been held by the NDP for most of the last four decades, while the other, Montreal's LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, has been solidly Liberal.

A victory by any other party in either of these elections would be a major upset and could lead to some soul-searching for the Liberal Party and the NDP, which have been closely aligned in Parliament for more than two years.

The ballot in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun includes an eye-popping 91 candidates — the result of a protest campaign calling for electoral reform. That means results may not be known until several hours after the polls close.

The electoral reform group responsible for the large number of candidates in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun also put dozens of names on the ballot in another byelection earlier this summer. The final outcome of that byelection wasn't known until after 4:30 a.m.

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"It is never possible to predict exactly when all results will be reported, but estimates based on the simulations we've conducted suggest it will take longer to count and report each poll," a spokesperson for Elections Canada said in a media statement.

"With this in mind, we cannot provide specific estimates for when results will be completed, but can confirm that results will be available on election night."

Elections Canada will be counting some advance ballots earlier in the day — up to four hours before polls close — and it has hired additional workers to help get the results out as soon as possible, the spokesperson said.

Elections Canada has also been running simulations to find ways to count the unwieldy ballots faster.

The NDP is looking to hang onto Elmwood-Transcona to show leader Jagmeet Singh has some momentum after he recently ripped up a governance agreement with the Liberals and vowed to go it alone.

If Singh can't hold a seat that's has been in the NDP's column for decades, it may call into question his future as leader, especially given the party's relatively poor performance in the last two general elections.

The Liberals already lost Toronto-St. Paul's in June — a stinging defeat for the party in a riding it had held for more than 30 years.

A loss in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun — which includes communities that have been represented by Liberals for most of the last century — would also be humiliating for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

While Trudeau has insisted he's staying on as leader despite some bad polling and that byelection loss, a defeat in Montreal after the one in Toronto could lead more Liberal MPs to demand his resignation.

Elmwood-Transcona was last held by MP Daniel Blaikie, who stepped down to work for Manitoba's NDP Premier Wab Kinew earlier this year. His father, Bill Blaikie, previously represented parts of this working-class riding in Parliament.

The NDP is trying to prove this riding is not just a "Blaikie seat" but one the New Democrats can hold with another name on the ballot. It's also hoping Kinew's popularity will give the party a boost.

The NDP has been running social media ads that largely lean on past provincial issues to attack the Conservative candidate in this race.

The NDP's Leila Dance, a local non-profit and business leader, is up against Conservative Colin Reynolds, a construction electrician.

Reynolds, a member of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) labour union, is making a play for blue collar workers in a riding that's home to a lot of them.

A major CN rail yard is in the riding and another one owned by CP is just over the Red River in Winnipeg's north end.

"Jagmeet Singh and Justin Trudeau's costly coalition does not represent union members like me," Reynolds said in a campaign video announcing his candidacy.

"Voters will have a chance to send a message to Jagmeet and Justin. Vote for common sense."

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has been reaching out to private-sector union members as part of a populist rebranding of the party.

Poilievre said little last month when a rail work stoppage threatened to cripple the national economy and he agreed to support the Liberal government's anti-scab legislation — a bill opposed by the business community because of fears that a ban on replacement workers will make strikes more likely.

Dance, who has the endorsement of the NDP-friendly United Steelworkers union, also has been making a play for labour support — a core constituency for New Democrats nationwide.

"Pierre Poilievre likes to cosplay, put on a costume and pretend that he cares about workers," Singh said Thursday at the party's caucus retreat. "This is someone with a track record of hurting workers."

The Liberals are not expected to be a factor in Elmwood-Transcona. The party finished a distant third there in the 2021 general election and polls suggest Liberals are a lot less popular now than they were then.

LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, a riding in southwest Montreal with a sizeable English-speaking minority, was last represented by former justice minister David Lametti.

Liberal candidate Laura Palestini, a Montreal city councillor, is trying to hold off NDP and Bloc Québécois challengers who are looking to take another longtime Liberal seat and deliver another body blow to Team Trudeau.

A Liberal win, meanwhile, would give Trudeau a much-needed victory and silence critics who say the party has lost touch with voters.

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Montreal city councillor Craig Sauvé is running for the NDP. Singh has been a frequent presence in the riding recently.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, a former Parliament Hill staffer, is the Bloc's candidate.

The Conservative candidate finished in a distant fourth place in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun last time, with just 7.5 per cent of the vote.