Morning Coffee: Can Rodgers, Jets upset 49ers on Monday Night ...

After spending months counting down to the first Sunday of the NFL season, it finally arrived!

Once again, the long wait was worth every second.

The top picks from an impressive rookie class made their debuts with mixed reviews, there were several thrilling finishes, plus the biggest underdog on the board pulled off an upset win that stunned bettors and led to plenty of early exits in NFL Survivor Pools.

The New England Patriots shocked the Cincinnati Bengals as a 7.5-point dog in Jerod Mayo’s head coaching debut.

That victory matched the largest Week 1 upset over the last 50 NFL seasons.

Meanwhile, three teams rallied from deficits of 14 or more points to win their opener on Sunday, which is tied for the most in a single season in NFL history.

Josh Allen threw two touchdowns and ran for two touchdowns as the Buffalo Bills rallied from 14 points down to beat the Arizona Cardinals 34-28.

Tyreek Hill scored an 80-yard touchdown as the Miami Dolphins overcame a 14-point deficit to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 20-17.

Caleb Williams became the first No. 1 overall pick to win his first NFL start since David Carr back in 2002.

The Chicago Bears and Pittsburgh Steelers both won without scoring an offensive touchdown.

It’s the first time that’s happened in Week 1 since 2006.

Next up, we get one more showdown between a pair of contenders that rank among the top 10 choices to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel in the Week 1 finale tonight.

The San Francisco 49ers opened -6.5 against the New York Jets at FanDuel back in the spring.

That number has since shifted three points in New York’s favour.

If you’re a regular reader of this column, then you already know which side I’m on for Monday Night Football.

This is the Morning Coffee for Monday September 9th, 2024.

The New York Jets haven’t made the playoffs since 2010.

Last season, Aaron Rodgers and one of the most talented rosters in the NFL were expected to end that drought.

Instead, Rodgers suffered a season-ending injury in his first start, and that talented roster had to carry a trio of replacement QBs to a seven-win season.

The fact that New York won seven games last year with Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle at QB is a testament to their skill and determination.

Fast-forward 364 days from the night that Rodgers suffered a torn Achilles and effectively ended any hope the Jets had to make the playoffs, and there is optimism surrounding this team once again.

New York entered Week 1 as the favourite to win the AFC East at FanDuel.

The Jets are considered more likely to make than miss the playoffs.

In fact, only five teams have shorter odds to win the Super Bowl than New York at FanDuel this morning.

Their first test comes against one of those teams tonight in the defending NFC champion 49ers.

San Francisco is the second choice to win the Super Bowl behind only the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Niners opened -6.5 for tonight’s game at FanDuel, but that number has slowly creeped down to -3.5.

I recommended a play on the Jets +4.5 as a FanDuel Best Bet for Week 1 two weeks ago, and I’m sticking with the visiting team to cover as my top play for tonight.

The 49ers might be the better team here, but as we saw over the weekend, the better team doesn’t always cover in Week 1.

The three biggest NFL underdogs all covered the spread in Week 1.

I expect that trend to continue with the Jets keeping it close in a game I believe they can win outright.

Star wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk won’t be at full strength after holding out for a new contract.

Star running back Christian McCaffrey is expected to play without limitations despite dealing with a calf injury in recent weeks.

Star left tackle Trent Williams held out until last week when he agreed to a restructured three-year deal with the team.

The 49ers have a ton of firepower on offence, but I don’t expect their star players to be at their best in Week 1.

Going up against a talented and motivated New York defence will not make the challenge any easier.

On the other side of the football, Rodgers will begin his redemption tour against a San Francisco defence that will be dealing with some significant turnover early on.

Since 2000, teams that lost the previous year’s Super Bowl are 10-14 straight up and 5-19 against the spread in Week 1.

The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven home games, including the playoffs.

That’s their longest ATS losing streak since 1982-83.

While the Jets are focused on contending for a playoff spot as the Rodgers redemption tour gets underway, the players and coaching staff in San Francisco understand the long road ahead of them and I don’t believe they will have the same urgency in Week 1.

In terms of a player prop, I’ll lock in a Same Game Parlay with Garrett Wilson to finish with 6+ receptions and 60+ receiving yards at -120 at FanDuel.

This bet cashed in seven of New York’s final 14 games last season and that was with Wilson, Boyle and Siemian at quarterback for the Jets.

Now they have Rodgers back at quarterback against a secondary that finished in the bottom-10 in completions allowed per game last season.

Mike Williams is expected to be limited for New York.

After finishing with the fourth-most targets in the NFL last season, I expect Wilson to be even busier this season with a capable quarterback.

Keep in mind, Rodgers loved keying in on Davante Adams when those two worked together with the Green Bay Packers.

I expect a similar approach from Rodgers and his current No. 1 wide receiver Wilson tonight as he makes his return in a prime time game in his home state.

I’m on the Jets +4.5 and an SGP that features Wilson 6+ receptions and 60+ receiving yards at -120 as my FanDuel Best Bets for Monday Night Football.

Have a great day, everyone!