Braves vs. Mets: Scenarios, playoff odds, and more

Published  September 30, 2024 1:43pm EDT

NEW YORK, NY - New York Mets fans are clenching their jaws as the team's fate for clinching a playoff berth all depends on today's dramatic doubleheader against the Atlanta Braves.

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The two NL East rivals were originally scheduled to face off in a crucial series last week, but two games were moved to Monday – after the scheduled end of the regular season -- because of Hurricane Helene.

Here's what you need to know about the odds for and against the Amazin's, along with a breakdown of what's at stake and how to watch:

What's at stake? What are the scenarios and outcomes?

The Mets (88-72) and Braves (88-72) will both make the playoffs if they split the doubleheader. But if there's a sweep, the Diamondbacks (89-73) will sneak into the bracket as the No. 6 seed while the team that gets swept is eliminated.

So here's the breakdown: Mets win Game 1, lose Game 2: The Mets qualify for the playoffs. With the doubleheader split, the Mets would secure the No. 6 seed and play the Brewers in the Wild Card Series. The D-Backs would be eliminated, and the Braves would advance.Mets lose Game 1, win Game 2: The qualifying scenario is the same as above. Losing Game 1, however, would put the Mets at a disadvantage in the Wild Card Series – as they would be deploying one of their best starting pitchers, Luis Severino, for Game 2.Mets win both games: They qualify for the playoffs and earn the No. 5 seed. They would play the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card Series. The Diamondbacks earn the No. 6 seed, and the Braves would be eliminated.Mets lose both games: The Mets would be eliminated. What are the odds of the Mets making the playoffs?

This math is either really easy or really hard.

If we rationalize that the Mets have a 50/50 chance of winning either game, their chances of making the playoffs would be 75%.

That's because the only way they’d miss the playoffs is if they lost both games, which would be a 50% chance of losing the first and a 50% chance of losing the second. Probability is multiplicative: 0.5 x 0.5= 0.25

So, they’d only have a 25% chance of missing the playoffs, which would be a 75% chance of making the playoffs.

If, however, you’re not willing to simply say the chance of winning a single game is 50%, then the math becomes complicated. At this point, you'd need to factor in team and player stats, like season win/loss percentages and lineup RBIs. And which stats are used depends entirely on your own assumptions!

How to watch and listen

The game is being shown on ESPN2 and Bally Sports South. It is also being streamed on Fubo and DirectTV. You can also listen to the game on SiriusXM. 

Mets vs. Braves game start time

Game 1 of Mets vs. Braves began at 1:10 p.m. ET, with Game 2 set to begin approximately 30 minutes after the conclusion of Game 1. 

Both games will be played at Truist Park in Cobb County, Georgia. 

Game 1 starting lineups Mets

Starting pitcher: Tylor Megill

Francisco Lindor (S) SSJose Iglesias (R) 2BMark Vientos (R) 3BBrandon Nimmo (L) LFPete Alonso (R) 1BJ.D. Martinez (R) DHTyrone Taylor (R) RFFrancisco Alvarez (R) CHarrison Bader (R) CF Braves

Starting pitcher: Spencer Schwellenbach

Michael Harris II (L) CFOzzie Albies (S) 2BMarcell Ozuna (R) DHMatt Olson (L) 1BJorge Soler (R) RFRamón Laureano (R) LFTravis d'Arnaud (R) CGio Urshela (R) 3BOrlando Arcia (R) SS

The Source: This article pulls together reporting from MLB.com and the Associated Press. Producers also consulted with a forensics researcher for the statistical analysis.