Mets vs. Blue Jays prediction, odds, picks: Bet on low-scoring game

Thanks to a two-week tear, the Mets are tied for the last wild-card spot and will look to grab another win Wednesday afternoon against the Blue Jays before setting off to Philadelphia to take on the first-place Phillies. 

Mets batters will have their hands full with AL Pitcher of the Month Bowden Francis making the start for Toronto. He’ll be opposed by Sean Manaea, who is coming off a strong month of his own.

Here’s a breakdown of Wednesday’s matchup with a prediction and pick for Blue Jays vs. Mets at Rogers Centre.

But first, let’s take a look at the odds.

Mets vs. Blue Jays odds TeamMoneylineRun LineTotalBlue Jays-125-1.5 (+136)o8 (-102)Mets+105+1.5 (-162)u8 (-118)Odds via DraftKings Blue Jays vs. Mets prediction

Francis had an historic August, going 4-1 with a 1.05 ERA and 0.41 WHIP.

He struck out 39 batters over 34 innings with just four walks, and took a no-hitter into the ninth inning against the Angels on Aug. 24 before giving up a home run to Taylor Ward.

The Toronto right-hander has adjusted his pitch usage to lean more heavily on his splitter, which he has commanded exceptionally well over his incredible stretch. It has become an elite pitch for him since a grip adjustment.

He has raised his slider usage against righties, and essentially cut the slider out entirely against lefties. 

Bowden Francis adjusted the grip on his splitter, which has become an elite pitch for him. Getty Images

In Francis’ last 40 1/3 innings, he has allowed a 1.56 ERA and an opponent batting average of just .119. He has struck out 10.04 batters per nine innings during that span, holding an xFIP of 3.08. Over the last 30 days, his 29.3 K-BB% is the top mark in baseball. 

This kind of dominance likely won’t continue as the league fights back against his adjusted arsenal, and some doubters might view his last outing versus Philadelphia as somewhat of an “aha” moment for opponents studying his film. But allowing three earned runs while generating 16 whiffs versus an elite Phillies offense is hardly a bad showing in my book. 

Manaea, too, comes into this matchup on a strong run. In his last 44 1/3 innings, the Mets’ left-hander has pitched to a 3.25 ERA while allowing an opponent batting average of just .172.

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He’s elevated his strikeout rate to 30% and increased his swinging-strike rate to 13.1%. He has allowed an xFIP of only 3.43 and a zone-contact rate of 80.0%.

While Blue Jays hitters have been far more effective in the season’s final third, they have still struggled to hit left-handed pitching.

Since Aug. 1, Toronto holds a wRC+ of only 86 versus lefties and has struck out 26.6% of the time. 

Blue Jays vs. Mets pick

Francis gets a tougher matchup versus the Mets, who rank 17th in wRC+ versus righties since the start of August. The Mets’ offense had an off night in Tuesday’s 6-2 loss.

Considering the recent excellent runs by both starters and the Blue Jays’ season-long struggles versus left-handed pitching, I see value betting the game to go Under its projected total, but check for the best available line.

Best bet: Under 8 runs (-118, DraftKings)