Matt Gaetz's Chances of Losing Republican Primary, According to Poll
House Republican Matt Gaetz is on track for an overwhelming victory in the primary for Florida's 1st congressional district, which he has represented since 2017, according to a new poll of likely voters in the district.
The survey of 400 likely GOP primary voters put Gaetz at 67 percent, 47 points ahead of challenger Aaron Dimmock on 20 percent. Fabrizio, Lee & Associates conducted the poll between July 8 and 10 via "landline, cell, and text-to-web." The poll was commissioned by the Gaetz campaign. Fabrizio, Lee & Associates previously worked as official pollster on Donald Trump's presidential campaigns.
In October 2023, Rep. Gaetz played a key role in the ousting of then Speaker Kevin McCarthy after he filed a "motion to vacate" which was approved by 216 votes against 210. The move was the latest in an ongoing spat between Gaetz and McCarthy which has made the Florida congressman a target for the former speaker's allies.
The Fabrizio, Lee & Associates survey also found that 66 percent of likely Republican primary voters in Florida's 1st district had a favorable view of Gaetz, against 25 percent who had an unfavorable view and 2 percent who had "never heard of" him. By contrast, 9 percent had a favorable view of Dimmock, while 15 percent had an unfavorable view and 57 percent didn't know who he was.
Similarly, the poll found 75 percent of those in Florida's 1st congressional district approved of Gaetz's performance in Congress, against 21 percent who disapproved, giving him a net approval rating of 54. The Republican primary contest between Gaetz and Dimmock is due to take place on August 20.
Newsweek contacted the campaigns of both Rep. Matt Gaetz and Aaron Dimmock for comment by email on Wednesday outside of usual business hours.
According to The Florida Phoenix, Florida Patriots PAC, a new super PAC, has spent $330,000 on a new ad for the primary which references allegations that Gaetz was alleged to have been involved with illegal drug use and sexual impropriety.
It stated: "2017 – Congressman Matt Gaetz is building his political career in Washington. But according to a sworn statement back in Florida Gaetz is partying with young girls and illegal drugs."
The video then showed a mug shot from Gaetz's 2008 DUI arrest, for which he was not convicted, before adding: "Money, drugs and sex, would the real Matt Gaetz please stand up."
Brian O. Walsh, who Politico described as "a top [Kevin] McCarthy ally," is assisting Florida Patriots PAC as a senior adviser. He said: "Since Matt Gaetz refuses to be honest his constituents, we plan to aggressively tell the truth for him."
Gaetz, who has strongly denied any wrongdoing, was investigated by the Justice Department for several years as part of a federal sex-trafficking investigation over claims he paid for sex, including with females aged less than 18 years old. In February 2023, the department announced it wouldn't be bringing charges against the Florida congressman.
In June, the House Ethics Committee announced it was resuming an investigation into Gaetz over claims he "engaged in sexual misconduct and illicit drug use, accepted improper gifts, dispensed special privileges and favors to individuals with whom he had a personal relationship, and sought to obstruct government investigations of his conduct."
Gaetz hit back on X accusing the House Ethics Committee of launching "frivolous investigations" against him which were based on "lies intended solely to smear me."
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