Maple Leafs vs Panthers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight ...
The Toronto Maple Leafs' offense has been outstanding to start the year, and what's more impressive is they've done it without much help from Mitch Marner. With a cold Bobrovsky in net for Florida, our NHL picks love Marner to break out tonight.
Last Updated: Oct 19, 2023 12:36 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
There are 12 games on the NHL slate tonight, including one that features a second-round rematch between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers.
The Cats got the best of the Leafs in the playoffs last season, but can Toronto’s offense get revenge and rain on the parade of the Florida's home opener?
The NHL odds suggest the Buds should be able to roll in the Sunshine State, and I think they can too if they get one player in particular going after a slow start to the season. Find out who I'm talking about in my free NHL picks for this October 19 matchup.
Maple Leafs vs Panthers odds Maple Leafs vs Panthers predictionsIf you remember the second-round matchup between these teams last year, the play of Sergei Bobrovsky will instantly come to mind. The Russian netminder stymied the Toronto Maple Leafs' offense single handedly, recording a 1.98 goals-against-average with a .943 save percentage and 7.75 goals saved above expected through five games — according to Natural Stat Trick.
However, that goalie has not arrived for the Panthers yet this season. Bobrovsky is 1-2 on the year with a 3.47 GAA and an .888 SV%, and I don’t anticipate playoff Bob will show up tonight out of the blue, either — and neither are Aaron Ekblad or Brandon Montour, the Florida Panthers two best defenseman who are out with injuries until the New Year.
Thus, a big night could be coming for Toronto's offense, especially for Mitch Marner who is yet to get going this year.
It’s been a pedestrian start to the season for the Leafs' star forward, who has just a pair of even-strength points through the first three games. Yet, a matchup against the Panthers may be just what he needs to get going.
Despite being shut down by Bobrovsky in the postseason last year, Marner has had plenty of success against Florida throughout his career. In just 23 regular-season contests, Marner has registered an impressive 33 points against the Panthers. What’s even more staggering is he’s recorded at least one point in 14 of the last 15 regular-season meetings, with 10 of them being multi-point games.
Tonight could be a get-right game for him against a weakened Panthers blue line, and at +120 odds, I think there’s some value there considering he’s hitting the Over at a 66% rate his last 15 games against this team.
Additionally, Florida has struggled when down a man, boasting the fifth-worst penalty kill so far this season... conceding five goals while shorthanded on just 15 opportunities. That bodes well for Toronto's top power-play unit, which has been cooking for a third straight year and is operating at 40% through the first three games. This would be a grade-A chance for Mitch to collect at least one of the two points needed to hit the Over.
My best bet: Mitch Marner Over 1.5 points (+120 at SIA)
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Maple Leafs vs Panthers same-game parlay
Matthews anytime goalscorer
Maple Leafs TT Over 3.5
Maple Leafs ML
If Marner is getting multiple points tonight, there’s a good chance one of them comes off a Matthews' tally. The Leafs' sniper has been on fire to start the season off of back-to-back hat tricks. Matthews has also been a point-per-game player in his career vs. Florida, with 13 goals in 22 games.
Next, I have Toronto to go Over 3.5 goals tonight. The Buds are fourth in the NHL with 4.33 goals per game and have been dangerous at 5-on-5, sitting with the fourth-best expected-goal rate in the league to go along with that potent 40% power play. Couple that with Florida’s injuries to the blue line and its struggles at keeping the puck out of the net, it could lead to Toronto lighting the lamp early and often.
The final leg of this SGP is the Maple Leafs moneyline. The road team has fared well in this matchup lately, going 7-1 in the last eight meetings. Look for Toronto to keep that rolling and try to take the home crowd out of it with some early scoring. The Panthers are averaging just 2.67 gpg, while ranking middle of the pack in expected goals. So if we’re banking on Toronto netting four or more tonight, it should be enough for the Leafs to spoil Florida’s home opener.
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The Maple Leafs opened as -125 favorites to win this game, with the line since shifting towards Toronto (now at -135). Meanwhile, the Panthers are getting plus money (+115) as the home dogs. What’s interesting is the money is split, with each team bringing in 50% of the total dollars wagered, but Florida has more public support at 55%. So seeing the number move toward the Leafs leads me to believe the sharp money sides with Toronto.
The books are expecting a high-scoring game, with the Over/Under climbing to seven goals. This means you’ll have to pay a little juice to get the Under (-125), with the Over paying +105. With two struggling goalies to start the year and Florida missing its top two defenders, we could see a lot of goals tonight. The Over might be worth the play at plus money.
Maple Leafs vs Panthers betting trend to knowThe Maple Leafs are 7-1 in their last eight road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Panthers.
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