Grammys Best Alternative Music Album: Boygenius, Lana Del Rey ...

Best Alternative Music Album at this year’s Grammys is one of the closest races we’ll likely see this year, with indie supergroup Boygenius going up against alt-pop icon Lana Del Rey. Neither artist has won a Grammy before, and both have similar advantages.

First, there’s Boygenius, whose “The Record” is arguably the year’s most acclaimed album. It dominated best-of-the-year lists and scored a whopping 90 on Metacritic. It also sold well, debuting at number-four on the Billboard 200 with 67,000 units in its first week. Now “The Record” is up for seven awards, including two in the rock field, as well as Album and Record of the Year, plus the prestigious Best Engineered Album, Non-Classical, which is often an indicator of strength in other categories.

But then there’s Del Rey’s “Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd.” The album made a bigger splash commercially, achieving 115,000 album units in its first week and peaking at number-three, which was also a step up from her previous album, “Blue Banisters.” Initially, “Ocean Blvd” scored an 80 on Metacritic, which these days isn’t that impressive. However, it was number-three on AlbumOfTheYear.org’s compiling of best-of-2023 lists, which suggests that music experts warmed up to the album over time. It got five total Grammy noms, including Album and Song of the Year, as well as a very sweet Best Pop Duo/Group Performance nomination for “Candy Necklace” with Jon Batiste.

So, who wins? Del Rey seems to have the commercial performance on her side, as well as likely support of pop voters. Meanwhile, Boygenius have critics in their corner, in addition to rock voters. But while, yes, being nominated for Best Engineered Album is an important factor, albums like Beck’s “Hyperspace” have shown that you can still lose Best Alternative Music Album with an Engineered Album winner.

There also isn’t a clear trend favoring acclaim or sales if you look at previous history. Some winners have been the most acclaimed yet not the biggest sellers (Wet Leg’s “Wet Leg,” Fiona Apple’s “Fetch the Bolt Cutters”), while others have been the most successful but not the most acclaimed (Beck’s “Colors,” Vampire Weekend’s “Father of the Bride”).

I’m leaning slightly towards Boygenius, simply because there are likely more rock voters participating here than pop. Then again, Del Rey is very much overdue, so a lot of voters might want to finally award her here … You might honestly be better off flipping a coin.

If there is a dark horse in the race, it might be Arctic Monkeys, whose “The Car” got two additional nominations. However, it’s rare for an Album of the Year nominee (let alone two) to lose to albums that are not nominated in the general field, plus that Arctic Monkeys record isn’t their biggest or their most acclaimed. The remaining two nominees in this category, Gorillaz‘ “Cracker Island” and PJ Harvey‘s “I Inside the Old Year Dying,” are even less likely to prevail.

Will win: Boygenius, “The Record”
Could win: Lana Del Rey, “Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd”
Dark horse: Arctic Monkeys, “The Car”

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