Kamala Harris As Biden Replacement Grows More Likely As He ...

19 Jul 2024

Forbes

Topline

The possibility that Vice President Kamala Harris could replace President Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket has grown more likely over the past 48 hours as Biden has begun to acknowledge he may need to bow out of the race, according to multiple reports—and while she appears to be the most seamless pick to replace him, her political record and low approval rating could hurt her chances against former President Donald Trump.

President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris at the Independence Day fireworks display from ... [+] the Truman Balcony of the White House in Washington, DC, on July 4, 2024. (Photo by MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images)

AFP via Getty Images Key Facts

Some top Democrats have openly suggested Harris is the most viable replacement for Biden—who has become receptive in recent days to bowing out of the race as party leaders have begun to abandon their support for Biden in private, according to multiple reports.

Some polls show Harris would perform better in a hypothetical matchup against Trump than Biden does. approval ratings are also higher than Biden’s among Black and Hispanic voters, two key demographics Biden has lost support among since his 2020 campaign.

Harris could also seamlessly take over Biden’s campaign cash, since she’s already on the ticket, allowing Democrats to avoid a complex process of transferring the funds to another candidate.

Harris’ relatively low approval rating (37%, according to Five Thirty Eight’s latest polling average) is a concern for Democrats if she were to replace Biden, though the numbers are partly a reflection of the president, whose approval rating is roughly similar.

Throughout her tenure, Harris has been accused of being absent from the public stage and she’s been hit with critical reviews of her job performance, including a cutting October New York Times profile that declared “the vice president is still struggling to make the case for herself” and a 2021 CNN story that revealed tension between the White House and Harris’ office.

During a trip to Guatemala just six months into her tenure, when she was tasked with handling immigration, she angered progressives by telling Guatemalans “do not come” to the U.S., then sparked even more backlash when she told NBC’s Lester Holt when asked why she hadn’t visited the U.S. border “and I haven’t been to Europe, I don’t understand the point you’re making.”

Weeks later, when her first border visit was announced, it blindsided her staff, according to Politico, which reported—citing an unnamed staffer—the communication lapse was reflective of a dysfunctional and “abusive” environment, with a high turnover rate and top-down mentality in which staffers’ ideas were often dismissed (Harris’ spokesperson firmly pushed back on the characterization in response to Politico).

Harris’ campaign for president in 2020, when she was serving as a California senator, underperformed expectations, and she was forced to end her bid before primary voting even began after struggling to reverse her low polling numbers and shore up financial support, with a 2019 Times article documenting a series of strategic missteps and staffing problems.

Harris has also faced a barrage of criticism from the left about her decades-long career as a prosecutor (she served as San Francisco District Attorney from 2004-2010 then as California Attorney General from 2011-2017), including that she didn’t do enough to investigate police misconduct and that she oversaw nearly 2,000 convictions for marijuana-related offenses during her time as AG.

Contra

Harris’ views on criminal justice seem to have evolved since her time as a prosecutor. She backed drug decriminalization legislation during her time in the Senate and she declared “nobody should have to go to jail for smoking weed” when Biden pardoned thousands of people convicted of federal marijuana possession in 2022, a phrase she has since repeated in discussing the topic. While she wrote in her 2009 book, “Smart on Crime,” that she would endorse having more officers on the street, she told The New York Times in 2020, in the wake of the police killing of George Floyd “it is status-quo thinking to believe that putting more police on the streets creates more safety . . .it’s just wrong.”

What Do Polls Say About Kamala Harris?

Harris performed better against Trump than than six other potential Biden replacements in a CNN/SSRS survey that showed her trailing Trump by two points, compared to Biden’s six-point deficit. Trump led Harris and all six other potential picks CNN/SSRS asked about, including both Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and California Gov. Gavin Newsom by five points. Harris, whose mother is Indian-American and whose father is Jamaican-American, could help Biden shore up support with Black and Hispanic voters, two groups he has lost support among since 2020, according to polls. More Black voters, 67%, view Harris favorably, according to a June Politico/Morning Consult poll, than Biden (63%), while slightly more Hispanic voters viewed her more favorably than Biden.

Key Background

There is no consensus in the party on who might replace Biden, but some top Democrats have openly suggested Harris is the most viable option. Former Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, in a Newsweek op-ed called on Biden to drop out and endorsed Harris to replace him, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., has indicated in conversations with members he believes Harris would be the best option to replace Biden, The Washington Post reported, citing two sources familiar with his thinking, and Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C., said publicly he would support Harris at the top of the ticket if the party settled on her as its nominee. Politicos have suggested Biden would essentially be compelled to endorse Harris as his replacement, as blocking her from becoming the first Black woman nominated by a major political party is widely viewed as politically implausible.

Chief Critic

Harris’ defenders have attributed her public perception problem to sexism, racism and bad press. Sen. Laphonza Butler, D-Calif., a former Harris adviser, told The Times in October Democrats who doubt Harris need to “cut the bulls–t,” calling the criticism “disrespectful.” Butler added: “The thing that makes it more disrespectful is that we’re talking about a historic V.P. who has been a high-quality partner and asset to the country at a time when everything is at stake. Right now is the time to respect what she’s done and what she brings.” Following the string of unflattering reports about dysfunction within her office and her rhetorical missteps in Guatemala, coupled with declining approval ratings and observations she had had kept a noticeably low profile, the White House in November 2021 publicly defended Harris in a statement. Harris “ is not only a vital partner to @POTUS but a bold leader who has taken on key, important challenges facing the country—from voting rights to addressing root causes of migration to expanding broadband,” White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said.