Kelly McParland: Justin Trudeau promises change, but it's probably ...

Trudeau, like Biden, has to convince voters he's not what they've seen with their own eyes

Published Jul 04, 2024  •  Last updated 4 hours ago  •  5 minute read

Nothing in his record suggests Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, seen July 3, is prepared to mount the sort of shakeup necessary to convince Canadians that he's capable of changing his ways, writes Kelly McParland. Photo by ANDREJ IVANOV / AFP via Getty Images

Here’s the dilemma for Justin Trudeau: to right the sinking ship that is his Liberal government, he’d have to not do all the things he’s been doing, and which appear to be the only things he knows how to do.

In a very real sense, the situation facing Liberals in the wake of their disastrous showing in the Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection is the same as that confronting U.S. Democrats struggling to contain the damage from President Joe Biden’s ruinous performance in his debate against Donald Trump.

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Biden’s aides, advisers, handlers, staff and family have spent the days since the debate frantically seeking to convince Americans their man is an alert, vigorous, engaged candidate, fully capable of handling the presidency, not the addled, confused, doddering man who couldn’t remember his lines or complete his thoughts, and needed help from his wife to carefully climb down from the stage, one cautious foot at a time. That he’s not the man they saw with their own eyes, but someone completely different.

In the same way, the struggling Liberals need to convince Canadians to put aside their personal experience and accept a different story on faith. A party that has built itself entirely on the person and personality of the prime minister needs to persuade voters that it’s about more than one person. Trudeau himself has to make the case that he’s more, and better, than the politician they’ve seen and watched for themselves for eight years. A government that has stuck to a specific path through three elections and numerous iterations has to argue convincingly that it knows other paths and is willing and able to take them.

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Can it be done? If you’re the sort who tends to believe your own eyes it would seem doubtful. While promising more and better, the Liberal top command spent the days after the byelection tearing off wildly down the same old path. The biggest-spending, most profligate regime in the country’s history immediately promised more spending. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, while vowing “a fiscally responsible” future, presented another $2-billion cheque, this time for rural internet. The prime minister heralded the start of a portion of the $13-billion dental program drummed up to ensure New Democrats continue to prop up his minority Liberals.

Along with the spending came the usual communications campaign. Trudeau, in jeans and boots, appeared with son Hadrien to gallop across the verdant pastures of a B.C. First Nation, then stroll with band members to “mark the 10th anniversary of the Tsilhqot’in decision,” an historic Supreme Court land grant ruling issued before the Liberals came to power.

It was pure Trudeau theatre. When the prime minister wanted to demonstrate his deep personal feelings about the residential schools tragedy he knelt in a graveyard with a Teddy bear while photographers clicked away. In the days after revealing his marriage was on the rocks — and after appealing for privacy — he showed up taking his kids to the movies. When he wanted to appear serious-minded and on-the-job during the COVID crisis he grew a beard telegenically flecked with grey. When Liberal messaging switched to a recovery strain it quickly disappeared.

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The challenge now is to convincingly show he “hears the concerns and frustrations of voters” and has the tools to regain their trust. Given the Trudeau he’s been for eight years, though, how does he suddenly become another Trudeau? To offset the deep dislike he’s engendered in so many Canadians, he’d have to switch Liberal branding in a radical new direction, one counter to so much he’s preached for so long.

Spending is one issue. The Trudeau government has added $600 billion to the debt, as much as all previous governments combined, with another $50 billion in the past year alone. Is it believable it could now change tack, given that just a day before the byelection Freeland attacked the whole notion of “austerity” as “really cold and cruel and small.”

Inflation is another. The deluge of spending may not be the sole cause of price hikes but is certainly a part. Liberals make no apology for their outlay and have insisted time and again that it’s essential to “invest.” Similarly, while acknowledging that interest rates are painful and high, Trudeau has publicly belittled the very idea he would worry himself about monetary policy. Can anyone who’s shown a general disregard for simple fundamentals — i.e. that low interest rates can go up — now convince people he grasps such things any more than he used to?

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The scope of government is a third concern, one that’s bred in the bone of Trudeau Liberalism. The size and cost of the public service has ballooned since his first victory in 2015, as has the use of consultants and third-party operators. The growth reflects the prime minister’s belief in an interventionist government actively involved in guiding, directing, subsidizing and intervening in business and markets, choosing winners and imposing restrictions as it deems necessary. The result has been slow growth, a productivity crisis, rising prices, a housing crunch and a weakening currency. Could Liberals credibly switch horses now and profess faith in free enterprise and private investment as a means to a stronger and more vibrant economy? Does anyone think they really want to?

How else could Trudeau draw a line on the past and show Canadians he’s set on a new course? Swear off photo ops? Fire his coterie of loyalist advisers and get a new batch of handlers less personally devoted to him? A major cabinet change is always possible, but after eight years the prime minister has fired or driven away many recognizable names and is down to third- or fourth-stringers.

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Nothing in his record suggests the prime minister is prepared to mount the sort of shakeup it would take to convince Canadians future years in office wouldn’t be identical to previous ones. He told CBC’s Rosemary Barton he “wouldn’t be the person I am” if he stepped down without completing his agenda. Could he be the person he is and also be so different that voters are willing to re-elect him? Seems dubious. Joe Biden is 81 and showing it no matter how fiercely his campaign insists otherwise. Justin Trudeau has never been anything other than the figure we’ve come to know over eight years. DNA doesn’t change just because you lost a byelection.

National Post

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