UFC 309 predictions: Expert betting picks, odds for entire Jon Jones ...
Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic will finally face off at UFC 309 on November 16. Jones defends the UFC heavyweight title against the former champion in Madison Square Garden.
Jones is a former UFC light heavyweight champion who hasn't lost a fight since a now-disputed DQ finish in 2009 against Matt Hamill. It took a while for Jones to move from light heavyweight to heavyweight, and it took less than one round to beat Ciryl Gane for the UFC heavyweight title.
Miocic has the most successful title defenses in UFC heavyweight history. The firefighter hasn't competed since 2021 and looks to prove he has a lot left in the tank.
MORE: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic: All-time greats collide at UFC 309
The co-main event will see a rematch between Michael Chandler and Charles Oliveira. The latter won the last time they fought, with lightweight gold on the line. This time, a potential title shot is up for grabs. Chandler is hungry after waiting to fight Conor McGregor for the past few years, while Oliveira looks to return to the top.
Other fighters on the card include fan favorites Chris Weidman and Jim Miller, Karine Silva, Bo Nickal, and more.
With the help of Sports Interaction, the Sporting News makes predictions on the entire card at UFC 309.
UFC 309 expert picks and full card predictionsJon Jones (c) vs. Stipe Miocic for the UFC heavyweight titlePer Sports Interaction, Jon Jones is the -650 favorite, while Stipe Miocic is the +450 underdog.
Jones made quick work of Ciryl Gane in his last fight, utilizing takedowns to add to his 1.93 average takedowns landed mark. "Bones" also lands 4.29 significant strikes per minute and with 12–6 elbows now allowed, he could have fun landing damaging blows. Miocic lands 4.82 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.86 takedowns per 15 minutes.
It is the fight years in the making that has lost its luster. The 42-year-old Miocic is close to retiring. Jones easily dispatched Gane and almost lost a close contest against Dominick Reyes in 2020, the last time he fought before Gane. Meanwhile, interim champion Tom Aspinall awaits his rightful shot at glory.
Miocic can cause a massive upset with one big punch. However, is his timing the same as it was in 2021? The fight going the distance seems unlikely, and Jones winning via TKO is a fair outcome. Will either retire, win or lose?
Sporting News prediction: Jones via TKO (round two)Michael Chandler vs. Charles Oliveira; LightweightsPer Sports Interaction, Charles Oliveira is the -250 favorite, while Michael Chandler is the +200 underdog.
Oliveira lands 3.39 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 53%. The Brazilian averages 2.17 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Chandler lands 4.89 significant strikes per minute in the octagon and averages 2.17 takedowns landed.
MORE: Tom Aspinall predicts Jon Jones will defeat Stipe Miocic at UFC 309
Despite being a collegiate wrestling champion with seven wins via submission, the former Bellator champion has been in striking wars against Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier. If Chandler sticks to this striking game plan, it could leave him open against the leader of most submission wins in UFC history. How much will time off waiting to fight McGregor play a factor?
Oliveira should go 2-0 against Chandler here. It won't be pretty, but Chandler is eager to let loose for the first time since 2022, and his opponent should take advantage of that.
Sporting News prediction: Oliveira via submission (round three)Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva; FlyweightsPer Sports Interaction, Karine Silva is the -275 favorite, while Viviane Araujo is the +220 underdog.
Silva is on a five-fight win streak in the octagon, averaging 3.59 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. "Killer" landed eight in her last four fights. Araujo is 1-3 in her previous four fights. The veteran lands 4.11 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.76 takedowns landed.
Araujo is active on the feet, but Silva is a finisher and can be deadly by combining her takedowns with her striking ability. She is on her way up, while Araujo has struggled. Expect Silva to prove she should be a top contender at flyweight here.
Sporting News prediction: Silva via submission (round one)Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig; MiddleweightsVia Sports Interaction, Bo Nickal is the -1200 favorite, while Paul Craig is the +750 underdog.
Nickal is a machine, as the multi-time NCAA Wrestling Champion averages 7.46 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Only one of his five UFC fights has made it out of the first round. Craig is an unorthodox grappler on a two-fight losing streak. He lands 2.45 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.68 takedowns landed.
In a unique clash of styles, Nickal has a clear edge. While he hasn't fought frequently, his skills can't be denied. If Nickal rushes in right away, it could be an easy night. Craig can try to block his shots, but Nickal may be relentless and suffocate him on the floor.
Sporting News prediction: Nickal via submission (round two)Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders; MiddleweightsPer Sports Interaction, Eryk Anders is the -115 favorite, while Chris Weidman is the -105 underdog.
Weidman lands 3.18 significant strikes per minute and averages 3.44 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. The former middleweight champion hasn't won consecutive fights since 2015 and competes in his third fight following major surgery. Anders is 2-2 in his last four fights, landing 3.41 significant strikes per minute. He also averages 1.79 takedowns landed.
Despite Weidman being the hometown hero here, it is unknown if the 40-year-old has anything left in the tank. Can he look like the Weidman of old, as he did against Kelvin Gastelum in 2017? It seems unlikely. However, given how close the odds are, one mistake could give him the edge and a needed win in front of family and friends.
Sporting News prediction: Weidman via split decisionMORE: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler 2: Repeat or revenge at UFC 309?
Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop; LightweightsPer Sports Interaction, Mauricio Ruffy is the -900 favorite, while James Llontop is the +600 underdog.
Ruffy lands 4.88 significant strikes per minute, and Dana White's Contender Series standout has won all his fights via knockout. Llontop is on a two-fight losing streak. He lands 5.38 significant strikes per minute.
Llontop looked sharp in a loss against Viacheslav Borshchev but Ruffy's two-inch reach advantage and deadly power should be enough to take him out. The wide odds seem unfair but do predict the correct outcome.
Sporting News prediction: Ruffy via TKO (round one) Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcus McGhee; BantamweightsPer Sports Interaction, Marcus McGhee is the -145 favorite, while Jonathan Martinez is the +120 underdog.
In three fights in the octagon, McGhee has landed 5.43 significant strikes per minute. He has eight wins via knockout. Martinez had a six-fight win streak end against Jose Aldo. He struggled against the veteran and didn't stick to landing patented leg kicks throughout the fight. Martinez lands 4.54 significant strikes.
If Martinez can return to form, it will result from leg kicks connecting. He should regain momentum by being the more efficient striker and taking advantage of his one-inch reach advantage.
Sporting News prediction: Martinez via unanimous decisionJim Miller vs. Damon Jackson; LightweightsPer Sports Interaction, Damon Jackson is the -175 favorite, while Jim Miller is the +145 underdog.
The 41-year-old Miller has traded wins and losses over the years and is 2-2 in his last four fights. He lands 2.99 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.53 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Jackson lands 2.90 strikes and averages 2.34 takedowns. He did get dropped five times against Chepe Mariscal last time out.
Miller can either end a fight quickly or lose momentum as it goes on, the latter proven against King Green at UFC 300. However, he faces someone in Jackson who has struggled against recent competition. The future Hall of Famer should be able to win following a fun grappling exchange, with a submission win likely.
Sporting News prediction: Miller via submission (round two) David Onama vs. Roberto Romero; FeatherweightsPer Sports Interaction, David Onama is the -1000 favorite, while Roberto Romero is the +625 underdog.
Onama lands 5.04 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 48%. "Silent Assassin" has seven wins via knockout and four via submission. Romero is 1-1 in his last two fights and has three wins via knockout.
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Onama is a massive favorite, thanks to his heavy hands. He does absorb 5.10 strikes, so defense may be an issue. He has also been taken down ten times in three fights, but it doesn't appear that this will be a problem against Romero. He should do enough to take out the replacement opponent in Romero.
Sporting News prediction: Onama via KO (round two)Mickey Gall vs. Rami Brahimaj; WelterweightsPer Sports Interaction, Mickey Gall is the -145 favorite, while Rami Brahimaj is the +120 underdog.
Gall hasn't won since 2021. He lands 3.33 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.18 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Brahimaj is 2-3 in the octagon, lands 1.74 significant strikes per minute, and averages 1.61 takedowns. He has also gotten taken down ten times in three fights and only mustered three significant strikes in his last fight, his first in two years.
It won't be a pretty fight between grapple-first fighters. Gall has proven to have a solid chin, so he can absorb shots. The active competitor of the two, Gall forcing the fight to go the distance and coming out on top appears to be the right call.
Sporting News prediction: Gall via unanimous decision Bassil Hafez vs. Oban Elliot; WelterweightsPer Sports Interaction, Oban Elliott is the -275 favorite, while Bassil Hafez is the +220 underdog.
Elliott lands 3.82 significant strikes per minute and averages 2.67 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He has landed eight in three UFC fights. Hafez lands 4.23 strikes and averages 3.00 takedowns landed, landing six in two UFC fights.
Hafez started his UFC career with a gutsy performance against Jack Della Maddalena and followed it up with a win against Mickey Gall. Elliott Elliott can land takedowns and has been as cool as a cucumber at times when most can't handle pressure. However, Hafez's rise could result in an aggressive start and a big finish for the first upset of the evening.
Sporting News prediction: Hafez via unanimous decisionVeronica Hardy vs. Eduarda Moura; FlyweightsPer Sports Interaction, Veronica Hardy is the -145 favorite, while Eduarda Moura is the +120 underdog.
Hardy lands 3.13 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 45%. She averages 1.08 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Moura lands 3.09 significant strikes and averages 5.15 takedowns, landing nine in three UFC fights.
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Moura will have a reach advantage. However, Hardy's disciplined fighting style can't be denied. The wife of Dan Hardy, Veronica is a natural flyweight and has competed against tough competition. On a roll, her 60% takedown defense mark should be enough to stop Moura from gaining any momentum.
Sporting News prediction: Hardy via split decisionMarcin Tybura vs. Jhonata Diniz; HeavyweightsPer Sports Interaction, Marcin Tybura is the -145 favorite, while Jhonata Diniz is the +120 underdog.
Tybura is 2-2 in his last four fights. He lands 3.57 significant strikes per minute and has a 48% strike accuracy mark. The ninth-ranked UFC heavyweight averages 1.42 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Diniz lands 4.09 significant strikes per minute and has an accuracy mark of 53%. He was supposed to face Derrick Lewis before that got nixed.
Diniz's takedown defense has barely gotten tested, and against someone like Tybura, ranked third for the most top position time (48:26) in UFC heavyweight history, he could get bullied. Expect the Polish fighter to play with his food before finishing him off.
Sporting News prediction: Tybura via TKO (round one)If you purchase a product or register for an account through one of the links on our site, we may receive compensation. Learn more >