Jagmeet Singh pulls NDP out of deal with Trudeau Liberals, takes ...

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has pulled his party out of the supply-and-confidence agreement that had been helping keep Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's minority Liberals in power.

In a video posted on social media Wednesday, Singh announced he's decided to cut ties with the governing party ahead of the fall sitting of Parliament because he thinks the Liberals are "too weak" and "too selfish" to fight for the middle class and stop the Conservatives.

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"Today I notified the prime minister that I have ripped up the Supply and Confidence Agreement," Singh says in the video, recorded overlooking Parliament Hill. "The Liberals have let people down. They don't deserve another chance from Canadians."

"They cannot be the change, they cannot restore the hope, they cannot stop the Conservatives. But we can," Singh says in the video, setting up the next election as a choice between his party and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's plans to cut.

The agreement was first signed in March 2022, and was set to expire in June 2025 when the House rises ahead of the next fixed-date election.

The deal was designed to inject stability into the minority Parliament, with the NDP agreeing to support the Liberals on confidence votes in exchange for progress on longstanding progressive policies.

Going forward, this means the Liberals will have to look for political support on a case-by-case basis on key votes, such as budgets, in order to stay afloat and stave off a potential election.

'I am not focused on politics': Trudeau

This major political announcement comes with just a week and a half to go before Parliament resumes, and less than a week before Singh and Trudeau are scheduled to meet with their caucuses to plot strategy for the fall sitting.

Reacting to the news – which he was only informed of shortly before Singh went public – the prime minister said he’s going to remain focused on Canadians' concerns until the next election "hopefully not until next fall."

"I'm not focused on politics. I'll let other parties focus on politics. I'm focused on actually delivering the things that Canadians told me this summer they need," Trudeau said, speaking at an announcement about the Liberals’ school food lunch program, in Rocky Harbour, N.L.

The prime minister also said he hopes the NDP stay focused on delivering for Canadians and help cement the policies they remain aligned on, in the face of their shared concern about prospective Conservative cuts.

"I think the NDP is going to have to make decisions about whether or not they want to stand with Pierre Poilievre," Trudeau said. "I certainly hope that the NDP will stay true to its fundamental values."

Does this mean early election? Poilievre hopes

According to NDP sources speaking on background, Singh and his caucus arrived at a consensus that they would get out of the deal, earlier this summer.

Sources said the NDP came to this decision – and made the video announcing it – ahead of Poilievre coming out last week to push Singh to pull out of the two-party pact.

Poilievre's pitch was for Singh to side with the Conservatives when MPs return to Ottawa and try and force an early election this fall, rather than wait until the fixed election date of October 2025.

At the time, NDP House Leader Peter Julian told reporters that "leaving the deal is always on the table for Jagmeet Singh."

Reacting to the Liberal-NDP breakup, Poilievre said it’s time for Singh to put his votes where his messaging is.

"My message to sellout Singh is this: if you're serious about ending your costly carbon tax coalition with Trudeau, then commit today to voting for a carbon tax election at the earliest confidence vote in the House of Commons," he said in a quickly-assembled press conference at 3 p.m. ET in Nanaimo, B.C.

The NDP have indicated that pulling their de-facto support for the Liberals doesn't mean Singh is ready to push for an election, and so this move does not mean Canadians imminently heading to voting booths.

"Voting non-confidence will be on the table with each and every confidence measure," the party said in a statement to media following the video's release.

Responding to Poilievre, Singh continued his social-media-messaging strategy Wednesday afternoon, posting that Poilievre "sounds worried," and "he should be." 

With a fall economic update and spring federal budget on the horizon, there are a few built-in moments ahead on the political calendar where the Liberals will be looking for a dance partner.

But, there's also the prospect of an opposition party advancing a motion of non-confidence – as the Conservatives did related to the carbon tax, unsuccessfully last spring – as soon as the Commons resumes.

It would take more votes than the Conservatives caucus of 119 and the New Democrats caucus of 24 to have the majority support needed see Trudeau’s Liberal government and its 154 MPs fall on a vote of non-confidence.

This leaves the Bloc Quebecois caucus of 32 MPs essentially holding the balance of power.

Deal not a political winner for NDP: Nanos 

Beyond the big-picture election questions, sources tell CTV News that based on what party campaigners were hearing while door-knocking for the Sept. 16 federal byelection in Montreal, they felt it would help them to try to secure the Liberal seat by severing ties with Trudeau now.

Though, CTV News' pollster Nik Nanos said Wednesday, the NDP have not politically benefited from their parliamentary pact, with the party still ranking lower than the Liberals.

"Maybe it's a moral victory from a policy perspective, but it sure isn't a political victory in terms of gains in ballot support for the New Democrats," Nanos said.

He's still not sure the New Democrats would want to go to the polls until they've had enough time to differentiate themselves as the progressive choice for change.

"Jagmeet Singh's video announcement basically was an election campaign advertisement, and Justin Trudeau response, Pierre Poilievre’s response all sound like there's a full on election right now," Nanos said.

"Every single debate, comment, motion, bill in the House of Commons will now be seen through the lens of a potential election that is going to be closer today than it was yesterday."

Deal was to last until June, main policies achieved

In the years since the deal was secured, the federal government, with the help of the NDP, have advanced a series of progressive policies.

Among what has been accomplished is a major expansion of free Canadian health care through a national dental care program and the first phase of a national pharmacare policy promising free contraceptives and diabetes medications.

However, the broader national pharmacare framework legislation has yet to clear the Senate, and the government is still working on securing agreements with provinces and territories on providing access to these benefits.

The government also passed an early learning and child-care act, anti-scab legislation, sustainable job protections, and paid sick leave for federally-regulated workers.

And while other policies are still in the works, when looking through the pages of the agreement, there was arguably little left to finalize over the months that were left in the deal.

Included in what remains outstanding are a series of electoral reform-related initiatives that are still working through the House with amendments ahead, and a promised safe long-term care act has yet to be tabled.

The deal falling apart now comes after the Liberal cabinet retreat in Halifax last week, where next steps on these and other ongoing housing and reconciliation efforts may have been discussed.

Speaking to reporters at the gathering of the prime minster's front-bench, Government House Leader Karina Gould told reporters that she was "fairly confident” the “strong agreement” would go the distance.

NDP sources told CTV News that the prescribed leadership and oversight group meetings baked into the deal – and meant to assess ongoing progress – have not been productive for months, citing animosity between the PMO and senior New Democrats.

Asked on CTV News Channel's Power Play on Wednesday whether any NDP concerns were conveyed to her over the summer, Gould said "no."

With files from CTV News’ Chief Political Correspondent Vassy Kapelos and Stephanie Ha