Israel is expected to launch retaliatory strikes against Iran for its ...

5 days ago

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Israel is weighing its options in retaliation for Iran's latest missile attack

SCOTT SIMON, HOST:

Israel makes no secret that it is planning a retaliatory strike against Iran for its ballistic missile attack earlier this month. And as NPR international affairs correspondent Jackie Northam finds, there is plenty of debate about the shape, scope and targets that Israel may be considering.

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JACKIE NORTHAM, BYLINE: A crowd of Israelis hurry to do some last-minute food shopping at this Tel Aviv grocery store before Israel shuts down for Yom Kippur. Many people think it's unlikely Israel will launch a retaliatory strike against Iran during this important Jewish holiday. But after it ends tonight, all bets are off. Israel's former national security adviser, retired Major General Yaakov Amidror, says Iran must pay for launching almost 200 ballistic missiles into Israel.

YAAKOV AMIDROR: We must retaliate. Otherwise, it will be strong signal to the Middle East that Israel does not have the ability to hit Iran. We have to be strong and to look very strong.

NORTHAM: There's much speculation about when and how Israel will retaliate. Earlier this week, Israel's defense chief, Yoav Gallant, hinted that something major was in the works.

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YOAV GALLANT: (Speaking Hebrew).

NORTHAM: Gallant says an attack against Iran would be lethal, precise and surprising, adding that the Iranian regime won't understand what happened, but would see the results. Targets could include Iran's military installations or missile production plants. There's also Iran's energy sector. The country exports roughly 1.7 million barrels of crude daily and is a key driver of Iran's economy. Eyal Pinko, who served in the Israeli navy and intelligence agency for three decades, says it would be easy to cripple Iran's oil industry.

EYAL PINKO: A cyberattack can take down, can shut down all the oil facilities and also the banking system. No airplanes, no missiles, nothing, but it can be very, very painful.

NORTHAM: The Biden administration has been urging Israel not to target Iran's oil industry because it could have repercussions worldwide. Iran could choose to attack oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, where more than 20% of the world's oil flows through every day. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, says the greater threat would be if Iran retaliated by striking facilities in the Gulf, particularly a Saudi oil facility known as Abqaiq, where most of the world's crude oil is processed.

BOB MCNALLY: Hard to imagine the loss of one piece of property, 1 square mile or so, on the planet Earth, having a bigger negative impact for global GDP than the Abqaiq stabilization plant.

NORTHAM: Iran already attacked Abqaiq five years ago, when it was under pressure from the Trump administration, which pulled out of the nuclear agreement. McNally says that strike was small and easily repaired. But Iran sent a clear message.

MCNALLY: It did that as a calling card. It kind of said, we can send the world into an economic tailspin. And that message was sent loud and clear.

NORTHAM: McNally says this is where Iran has some leverage - using the threat of a strike on Gulf facilities to get the U.S. and other Western nations to pressure Israel not to hit Iranian energy facilities. The Biden administration is also pushing Israel to not target Iran's nuclear facilities, as some ultra-right-wing members of the government would like. Former national security adviser Amidror says that's unlikely right now, in part because the U.S. has made it clear it would not help in such an operation. Either way, Amidror says Israel should not tell the U.S. its exact targets in advance.

AMIDROR: First of all, it's our business, not theirs. And second, there is a danger of being leaked by someone. It will endanger the pilots.

NORTHAM: Yossi Mekelberg, a professor of international relations at Chatham House, believes the cycle of attacks will continue, no matter what Israel does.

YOSSI MEKELBERG: I think, you know, at a certain point, when you start tit for tat, countries forget where it all started. And then you get into a completely different dynamic, which the initial excuse or reason don't matter anymore. It should just enter into something which might be almost sustainable attacks by both.

NORTHAM: Which Mekelberg says can lead to miscalculations paving the way for a broader war throughout the region.

Jackie Northam, NPR News, Tel Aviv.

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