Lowetide: 3 young Edmonton Oilers prospects looking for full-time duty

The recent success of the Edmonton Oilers means the organization’s solutions to roster problems are falling into place.

There are exceptions.

One of the favourite activities of Oilers fans is to identify a roster weakness, cast about looking for an internal solution, and then ponder the idea of moving that player into a more prominent position.

A current example is Warren Foegele and his status as a No. 3 winger on the Ryan McLeod line. Fans can identify a struggling player (Connor Brown) and the fix (Foegele) and discuss it.

There is merit in the idea.

Having a third line that is reliable? Also important.

The numbers suggest a feature role for Foegele may not be the correct path forward. The McLeod-Foegele tandem is 1-6 goals at five-on-five this season. Foegele’s results with Leon Draisaitl (2-4 goals in 57 minutes) are not strong either, so the third line may be best.

McLeod-Foegele are 1-0 goals and own a 62 percent expected goal share in the last three games.

There are some solutions playing down the depth chart and with the AHL Bakersfield Condors worth pondering. What should the Oilers do?

There are three young players who are looking for a chance and there is opportunity to match on this roster. Here’s a look.

There is some doubt about Holloway as a scorer and his mistakes of youth made coach Jay Woodcroft cautious with Edmonton’s best young forward.

Kris Knoblauch will need to get familiar with Holloway’s abilities, and with his return imminent (before Christmas is likely) it’ll be go time for a prospect who has had injury issues and spent most of his young NHL career on a depth line.

Here are his totals, by line:

All numbers five-on-five and include the last two seasons

Holloway played one game for Knoblauch as coach, so the numbers here represent Woodcroft’s deployment of the young winger.

The only numbers that have enough sample are the McLeod totals over two seasons. Holloway’s offence and outscoring with McLeod are solid to excellent and reflect an astute decision by Woodcroft.

The McDavid minutes are impressive in a small sample, the Draisaitl usage is poor but again in a small sample.

Best deployment: Knoblauch would be justified in running McLeod and Holloway together. In 59 minutes with Foegele as the third member of the unit, the Oilers are 3-0 goals with a 63 percent expected goal share at five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick, in the last two seasons. An audition up the roster should be considered if there’s opportunity (Brown’s struggles continuing, etc) but the best spot initially is with McLeod when Holloway is ready to play again.

There’s every chance Knoblauch won’t get a good long look at Rodrigue until next year’s preseason action. That said, there’s reason to believe in Rodrigue getting a one- or two-game audition with the NHL team before the end of this regular season.

Over the last two seasons, Rodrigue’s save percentage (.915) is a match for current NHL backup Calvin Pickard (also .915).

Both men have posted superior numbers to current Bakersfield Condors starter Jack Campbell. Based on intel, Campbell could get the recall to Edmonton by the end of this month, possibly during the upcoming road trip to the East Coast.

Best deployment: Pickard had a strong game on Sunday versus the New Jersey Devils. Keeping him in the backup role may be the best course of action, and an NHL audition for Rodrigue will be justifiable if he continues to play well.

Broberg’s situation has been well documented in recent weeks, but isn’t unusual for a “slower than hoped for” NHL talent.

Despite his current situation (playing for the Condors), Broberg is a valuable piece of the organization. He is young, will improve, the next contract won’t be a difficult one to fit under the cap and he’s fast as lightning with good size.

Knoblauch and his coaching staff haven’t had much of a chance to work with him. A strong preseason this fall, along with a new general manager’s roster tweaks could result in Broberg as the No. 3 left-handed defenceman beginning this fall.

Using the first two seasons of his NHL career (excluding this one), Broberg’s performance early in his career is heavily dependent on partner, and by quality of competition. Here’s a look at his time with Evan Bouchard during the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons, via Puck IQ.

All numbers five-on-five, DFF% is smart Corsi, similar to expected goals

These numbers give us an idea about deployment (staying away from elite competition with a young pairing) and success (protected minutes means good times for the tandem).

The overall point, and it’s worth noting with Broberg in the minors, is that the big Swedish defender can play NHL defence if sheltered and placed with the right partner.

With Bouchard during these games, Broberg enjoyed a 57 percent shot share and a 60 percent expected goal share.

What does that mean? Broberg’s next contract will be a value deal. He’s young, big and fast. His contract next year will be far less than incumbent No. 3 left-handed defenceman Brett Kulak. It’s a cruel business and difficult decisions will be made.

Broberg needs playing time, and is currently receiving it in the AHL.

Best deployment: The organization should keep the powder dry and eschew the temptation to make a trade. Get him into as many games as possible (both NHL and AHL) this season. The next general manager is going to need cap room to wheel, and Broberg is going to cost far less than $2 million toward the cap next season and (the numbers show) he’s a bona fide depth defender. He will likely be more than that this time next season.

There are other young players pushing.

Raphael Lavoie has 32 goals in his most recent 73 AHL games, with 232 shots on goal. His foot speed and two-way acumen are worries, but the Oilers need a first-shot scorer with a great release and Lavoie is such a player.

Most of the AHL defencemen bring enough in one area to be considered possible solutions for NHL play depending on the Oilers’ needs.

In Holloway, Rodrigue and Broberg, management has internal solutions with value contracts. This is what the next general manager will need to have available to him when cobbling together next season’s roster.

Including the Jack Campbell contracts and Connor Brown’s bonus, the next GM will need several players with cap hits under $1.5 million on the roster. Some of those players will need to come from the minor-league system.

Several of those players are knocking on the door now, and bring skills that are a match for team need.

Making a trade, at the cost of (rare and) valuable future assets should be avoided. The first step in making that happen is playing Holloway (when healthy), Broberg (when he’s ready for recall) and Rodrigue (when there’s a chance for an audition) this season.

The Oilers did this early in Woodcroft’s time as coach. He was familiar with men like Broberg, Holloway, Stuart Skinner, Markus Niemelainen and Vincent Desharnais.

The path could be more difficult with the new coaching staff, but the need for internal solutions has never been greater than right now.

(Photo of Dylan Holloway: Andy Devlin / NHLI via Getty Images)