Breaking down full Detroit Tigers playoff picture with 5 games left

25 Sep 2024

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DETROIT – Tuesday was another great day for the Detroit Tigers, as they clawed even closer to clinching a playoff spot.

Here’s a look at their full playoff picture with just five games left in the regular season.

Minnesota Twins

The most important team for the Tigers to track remains the Minnesota Twins.

With the Tigers’ win over the Rays on Tuesday afternoon and the Twins’ ensuing loss to the Marlins, the Tigers’ lead over the Twins has grown to two full games.

That means Detroit’s magic number is down to four. In other words, any combination of Tigers wins and Twins losses that adds up to four would officially put the Tigers in the playoffs.

I’m sure you know this by now, but the Tigers don’t own the tiebreaker over the Twins, which is why that magic number isn’t three. The Tigers lost seven of 13 head-to-head matchups with Minnesota.

The Twins have lost three games in a row and are 11-22 since mid-August. Their series with the Marlins continues Wednesday night in Minneapolis, and they finish with three against the Orioles.

Seattle Mariners

The other team chasing the Tigers is Seattle, but those playoff hopes are on life support.

The Mariners lost to the Astros on Tuesday night to fall 2.5 games behind the Tigers. And Seattle only has four more games remaining (Thursday is an off day).

Detroit won five of six head-to-head matchups, so even a tie wouldn’t be enough to get Seattle into the playoffs.

The Tigers would win a three-way tie with the Mariners and Royals, but would lose a three-way tie with the Mariners and Twins.

Kansas City Royals

Washington held Kansas City to zero runs through nine innings on Tuesday night, but it still wasn’t enough to win.

The Royals scored the game’s only run in the top of the 10th and earned a much-needed victory.

Detroit and Kansas City have identical records at 83-74, which means the Royals currently own the second wild card spot because they won the head-to-head series, 7-6.

The difference between getting the second and third wild card spots is simple: The second wild card team will play at Baltimore (probably) in the first round of the playoffs, while the third will play in Houston.

Kansas City has a much tougher road ahead, though. While the Tigers host the historically bad White Sox for three games to finish the season, the Royals have to head to Atlanta to face a Braves team that’s scratching and clawing for a wild card spot of its own.

Baltimore Orioles

I do have to at least mention the very, very slim possibility that the Tigers could host a wild card series at Comerica Park.

To do so, they would need to pass both the Royals and the Orioles and finish with the top wild card spot. That’s extremely unlikely after the Orioles beat the Yankees on Tuesday night.

Baltimore is four games up on the Tigers with five to play, but the Tigers do have the head-to-head advantage.

So Detroit needs to make up four games in five days to bring playoff baseball to Comerica Park in the first round.

Here are the two scenarios that would give the Tigers the top wild card spot:

The Tigers finish 5-0, the Orioles finish 1-4 or 0-5, and the Royals lose at least once.

The Tigers finish 4-1, the Orioles finish 0-5, and the Royals lose at least twice.

Baltimore plays all five of its remaining games on the road -- two against the Yankees and three against the Twins. It’s ironic that if the Tigers take care of business the next two days against Tampa Bay, they could end up actually rooting for the Twins over the weekend.

If the Tigers move into the top wild card spot, they’re guaranteed to host the Orioles in the first round. The Orioles have already clinched a playoff spot, and they own the tiebreaker over the Royals.

So the only way for the Royals to finish ahead of the Orioles is by going 5-0 while the Orioles finish 0-5. In that scenario, the Royals would get the fourth wild card spot.

Boston Red Sox

For the sake of being thorough, we’ll touch briefly on the Red Sox.

Boston has won four games in a row to stay alive in the wild card race, but still, it’s a 3.5-game gap between the Red Sox and the Tigers.

Since the Tigers won the season series against the Red Sox, the only way Boston can pass Detroit is by finishing 4-0 while the Tigers go 0-5. That would put the Red Sox at 84-78 and the Tigers at 83-79.

There are also those unlikely tiebreaker situations that could mix things up.

If the Tigers, Royals, and Red Sox all finish tied, the Red Sox would win the tiebreaker because of their 4-2 record against the Royals. The Tigers would be out.

If the Tigers, Twins, and Red Sox all finish tied, the Twins would win the tiebreaker. The only way the Tigers could get in would be if they all finished ahead of the Royals, making the Twins the second wild card team and the Tigers the third.

If the Tigers, Royals, Twins, and Red Sox all finish tied, the Twins would win the tiebreaker. The Tigers would be out.

Tampa Bay Rays

Don’t discount the opportunity for the Rays to play spoiler. But you can definitely discount their playoff chances.

Tampa Bay came into Detroit on a four-game winning streak, and it has won recent series against the Red Sox and Orioles while splitting with the Twins and Guardians.

But as of Wednesday morning, the Rays are five games behind the Tigers and Royals with five games to play.

Even if the Rays win the next two games in Detroit, they would need the Tigers to get swept by the White Sox to even have a chance to force a tiebreaker.

The Rays and Red Sox finish the season with a three-game series at Fenway Park.

New York Yankees

OK, technically, the Tigers could also end up playing the Yankees in the wild card round of the playoffs.

The Orioles trail the Yankees by five games in the AL East standings, but Baltimore clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker with its win Tuesday night.

So if Baltimore wins its last five games and the Yankees lose all five (two against the Orioles and three against the Pirates), the Orioles would win the East and the Yankees would be guaranteed the top wild card spot.

What’s already decided

The Astros have clinched the AL West Division and are locked into the No. 3 seed in the American League. They’re five games ahead of the Mariners with four games left, and too far behind the other division winners to catch up and earn a first-round bye (regardless of who wins the East).

Cleveland is currently one game behind the Yankees in the race for the No. 1 seed in the AL, but either way, the Guardians are guaranteed a bye.

In the National League, we already know the Phillies have won the East and the Brewers have won the Central. The Dodgers and Padres are fighting for the NL West crown, and the loser will earn a wild card spot.

Three teams are still battling for two wild card positions: The Diamondbacks, Mets, and Braves. Right now, the Mets and Diamondbacks are tied at 87-70, while the Braves are a game back at 86-71.

Bottom line

The Tigers are in a really good spot. But the job’s not quite finished.

Here’s how I would rank the possible remaining outcomes, in order of likelihood.

Tigers get the second wild card spot and play in Baltimore.

Tigers get the third wild card spot and play in Houston.

Tigers miss the playoffs.

Tigers get the first wild card spot and host the Orioles.

Tigers get the second wild card spot and play in Kansas City.

Tigers get the second wild card spot and play the Yankees in New York.

Wednesday’s game against the Rays is the toughest remaining test on the schedule. Zack Littell is Tampa Bay’s best pitcher, and he’s been excellent over the past two months.

The Tigers will counter with Keider Montero, who’s been inconsistent during his rookie season.

If the Tigers can win one of the final two games against the Rays, though, it would be a massive step toward securing a playoff spot.

The White Sox are the worst team in MLB history, and while they won’t just lie down without a fight, the Tigers have to feel pretty good about their chances in those games.

We’ve said it a hundred times over the past month, but it’s worth repeating: I can’t believe the Tigers are even in this conversation. It’s a testament to this pitching staff, the young bats, and A.J. Hinch that they found a way to rally after the trade deadline.

Now we’ll see if they can finish.