Nelson: Premier Smith should thank those lucky stars
Political leaders are akin to gamblers: relying on numerous strategies and intricate game plans, yet it’s Lady Luck that ultimately seals their fate
Author of the article:
Chris Nelson • For The Calgary Herald
Published Sep 14, 2023 • Last updated 8 hours ago • 3 minute read
The stars are aligning for Premier Danielle Smith.
Political leaders are akin to gamblers: relying on numerous strategies and intricate game plans, yet it’s Lady Luck that ultimately seals their fate.
Still, Alberta’s premier is playing her hand with skill these days. Of course, there are still many Albertans opposing her, but the fear factor she first generated, even among some longtime Tories, is dissipating. (Things had to improve after that street-pastor phone call debacle.)
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Access articles from across Canada with one account. Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments. Enjoy additional articles per month. Get email updates from your favourite authors.Primarily — as with every Alberta leader since that Leduc No. 1 well came gushing in 76 years ago — her popularity is tethered to the oil price. Right now things are looking up, as production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia are boosting WTI close to the $90-a-barrel level.
More money coming in means extra cash on hand to deal with unwelcome surprises, such as the dreadful mess provincial Conservative governments made of the blood-testing regime in southern Alberta.
Meanwhile, income tax revenues are also rising thanks to the huge wave of newcomers flooding to Alberta. Sure, this influx will eventually come with lots of increased costs but, for now, it leaves the UCP overseeing Canada’s hottest economy.
It also provides Smith with enviable financial firepower before the near-certain fight with Ottawa over carbon emissions, a battle long coming and one that could define Alberta’s future for a generation.
The premier has wisely resisted the urge to invoke her controversial sovereignty act over some picayune grievance with the feds. That, in turn, has allowed Albertans to accept it’s now on the books and the sky hasn’t fallen.
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But, with federal Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault demanding Alberta get its electricity grid to net zero by 2035, alongside rumours he’ll soon impose a hard cap on energy emissions to force an immediate production ceiling on the oil and gas industry, there’s little doubt the sovereignty act will eventually be rolled out in response.
This will also help Smith keep those Take Back Alberta supporters happy — a faceoff with the Trudeau government easily trumps annoyance over comparatively minor issues being shelved, such as booting out the Mounties or deep-sixing the Canada Pension Plan.
As if that wasn’t enough to have Smith double-checking her horoscope to see if it really did promise such bounty, there’s yet more good cheer on the national level.
The Justin Trudeau bubble is finally bursting: not just in Alberta, where it’s lain limp since Day 1 of his tenure as prime minister, but across the entire country.
Liberal caucus set to meet before fall sitting as Trudeau faces discontent from backbenchers, voters 'Refrain from testing our government's or Albertans' resolve': Smith warns Ottawa over planned emissions cap Nelson: Housing crisis finally puts Trudeau's feet to fireMassive cost-of-living increases amid a dreadful housing crisis is behind his fall from grace, according to the Angus Reid Institute, whose latest poll showed Trudeau’s approval rating at just 33 per cent, against a disapproval rating of 63 per cent.
When asked who’d make the best prime minister, only 17 per cent of Canadians picked Trudeau, while almost double that chose Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. And the news gets even better for Alberta’s premier, as she and her buddies prepare for a battle that’ll reverberate across Canada. Worries about climate change, once a major issue for that influential millennial age group back when Trudeau basked in popularity, are dropping like a stone. Fewer than one in four of that cohort named it a top three issue — remarkably, the lowest of any age-based demographic surveyed.
Now we have Canadians increasingly focused on their finances and unlikely to crave yet more carbon taxes, while Alberta has excess moolah in its treasury, overseen by a leader fresh to the mandate and without the nasty internal friction that destroyed her predecessor — at least for now.
Atop that, we have a prime minister whose time looks about up — desperately hoping NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh won’t discover a backbone any day soon — flogging an environmental horse that might not be dead, but certainly lacks the vigour it once had.
Danielle Smith should look up one clear night, into that wonderfully dark prairie sky, and thank those lucky stars.
Chris Nelson is a regular weekly columnist.
