College Football 2024 National Championship Odds, Stats And ...

2 Jan 2024

Forbes

Michigan running back Blake Corum (2) runs in for a touchdown past Alabama defensive back Kool-Aid ... [+] McKinstry (1) during overtime at the Rose Bowl CFP NCAA semifinal college football game Monday, Jan. 1, 2024, in Pasadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Kyusung Gong)

Associated Press

The College Football Playoff will crown a national champion on Jan. 8, 2024 in Houston when the Michigan Wolverines (14-0) tackle the Washington Huskies (14-0). The college football bowl season featured 42 games and this is the 10th and final season of the four-team College Football Playoff ahead of next season’s 12-team playoff format.

In a pair of entertaining semifinals and winning bets on New Year’s Day, Michigan rallied for a late touchdown to force overtime and took down Alabama 27-20. Washington broke a 21-21 halftime tie to take out Texas, 37-31.

Michigan vs. Washington - CFP National Championship

College football bowl odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook—the official odds provider for the Associated Press. Odds and lines subject to change. All times Eastern.

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 2 Washington | 7:30 p.m. ET | ABC | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

Michigan (-4.5), Moneyline -192 Washington (+4.5), Moneyline +158 Game Total (55.5)

The spread opened Michigan -4.5 during the final minutes of Washington’s CFP semifinal win. The total opened 54.5 and was up to 55.5 within minutes of the Huskies win. The moneyline has moved around from Michigan -186 to -176 to -192 within an hour of Washington’s win over Texas.

Michigan’s 27-20 overtime win over Alabama included holding the Crimson Tide to 288 yards (21 in overtime) at 4.4 yards per play with 172 rushing yards allowed. Michigan’s offense gained 351 yards (25 in overtime) at 5.9 yards per play with 130 rushing and 230 passing yards. The Wolverines have rushed the ball at least 31 times in every game this season.

Bob Stoll of Dr. Bob Sports provided some advanced stats and insight on Michigan and Washington ahead of their semifinal games and wins in the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl.

Michigan has yielded only 9.5 points per game on 4.1 yards per play (yppl), which does not include garbage time when backups were in, to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive unit. That unit only faced one other elite offensive team and they gave up 24 and 6.5 yppl in that game to Ohio State. The only other good offense that Michigan faced was Maryland and the Terps also scored 24 points, although on just 4.3 yppl. The Wolverines were 1.4 yppl better than average defensively in those two games against good offensive teams but they were just 0.6 yppl better than average against the Buckeyes. Michigan’s offense averaged 36.7 points per game and 6.4 yppl (with QB McCarthy in the game) against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack. The average points scored was inflated by 5 defensive touchdowns and Michigan averaged just 4.9 yppl against the 3 elite defensive teams that they faced – Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa, who would combine to allow 4.1 yppl to an average team. Michigan’s offense was 0.2 yppl worse, relatively against good defensive teams (+0.8 yppl) than it was overall (+1.0 yppl).

Washington has won 10 straight games by 10 points or less. That’s the longest such streak in the history of the AP Poll. The Huskies 37-31 win over the Longhorns included 430 passing yards by Hesiman Trophy runner-up QB Michael Penix, Jr. Washington totaled 532 yards offense at 7.6 yppl, but the Huskies defense allowed Texas 498 yards offense at 7.0 yppl while holding off Texas for 3 plays inside the Huskies 15 yard line in the closing seconds. Washington has rushed the ball at least 30 times in just four games this season with QB Michael Penix, Jr. directing an elite passing attack and ranking No. 1 in the nation with 350 passing yards per game.

That sets up a strength-vs.-strength matchup, as the Wolverines allowed the second fewest passing yards per game (152) and have the third-lowest passer efficiency rating against (101.8).

Washington’s defense was 0.9 yppl better than average during the regular season and the Huskies are particularly good defending the pass (5.9 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 7.2 yppp against an average defense). Washington’s defense allowed Texas QB Quinn Ewers 318 yards passing at 7.4 yards per pass with the final two drives against a prevent defense. Washington’s offense started the season on a record-breaking pace, averaging 9.3 yards per play with QB Michael Penix in the game (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average offense). Washington’s offense cooled down and ended the season at 2.0 yppl better than average (7.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl). Part of the reason for that slowdown was the absence of star WR Jalen McMillan, who was injured from week 4 through week 12 (0 catches in a few games he tried to play during that span). McMillan was still third on the team in receiving yards despite catching passes in only 5 games. He looked fully healthy in the Pac-12 Championship game, as he caught 9 passes for 131 yards on 13 targets against Oregon. I rate the Huskies’ offense at 1.9 yppl better than average (Washington’s top trio of receivers vs. Texas saw McMillan with 5 catches for 59 yards, Ja’Lynn Polk 5 catches for 122 yards and projected first round NFL draft pick Rome Odunze catch 6 passes for 125 yards).

Follow more college football betting news, odds, picks and insight ahead of the College Football Playoff National Championship game. That includes against the spread (ATS) data knowing too that Washington head coach Kalen DeBoer is now 8-1 ATS as an underdog after the Huskies hooked the ‘Horns and beat Texas as an underdog.

Still, Michigan will be up for the challenge and win the national championship game over Washington.

You can bet on it.