WTA Finals semifinal previews: Jessica Pegula vs. Coco Gauff; Iga ...

Which two will play for the season-ending championship in Cancun?

So far in Cancun, Pegula has been in finer form. She’s 3-0, she hasn’t dropped a set, and she has wins over Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina. She wanted to put her dismal Finals performance from 2022 behind her, and she has, by playing solid, proactive tennis; she’s been timing the ball well.

Gauff, by contrast, has been wildly up and down. She dropped just one game to Ons Jabeur in her opener, then lost all command of her serve. She double faulted her way out of her match with Swiatek, and somehow survived 17 more doubles in her win over Marketa Vondrousova.

The question for Saturday is whether that win can settle Gauff back down and help her regain some confidence—if not in her serve, then at least in the rest of her game. Pegula, who has been on court with Gauff in doubles all week, will know exactly what her partner is capable of. In Montreal, she said she wanted to keep Gauff from getting on an early roll and getting loose.

“I wanted to stay as tough as possible at the beginning of the first set, just to not…let her be able to free up and start serving really well and ripping and playing super-aggressive,” Pegula said of that match.

As with the other semifinal, one player (Gauff) has the higher ceiling, while the other (Pegula) is the more reliable performer at the moment. I’ll go with reliable. Winner: Pegula

We have the year-end showdown we wanted, even if it’s a round earlier than we might have hoped.

Sabalenka and Swiatek have been the two best WTA players all season. Swiatek was No. 1 for the first eight months, before Sabalenka took over the top spot, for the first time in her career, after the US Open. This weekend we’ll get a resolution: If Sabalenka wins this semifinal, she’ll clinch No. 1; if Swiatek wins, and goes on to win the final as well, she’ll steal it away.

Not much has separated them this season. Each won a major: Sabalenka at the Australian Open, Swiatek at Roland Garros. They played twice, both times on clay, and each won once: Swiatek in straight sets in Stuttgart, and Sabalenka in three sets in Madrid. Right now, Swiatek would seem to have an edge in form. She has won nine straight matches, and she finished first in her group in Cancun. Sabalenka, meanwhile, has played just one tournament since the US Open, and lost to Pegula earlier this week.

They also have the same strengths and objectives when they go on court: Both like to dictate from the ground, and they can do it equally well with their heavy-topspin forehands and two-handed backhands.

I’d say Sabalenka, right now, has a slightly higher ceiling than Swiatek, but Swiatek is the slightly more reliable performer. Sabalenka has a more powerful serve, but she can lose control of it, especially in tense situations. Ditto for their ground strokes: Sabalenka can blister the ball through the court more thoroughly, while Swiatek’s topspin whip gives her more safety.

If’s it windy again, it’s hard to say who will have the advantage. Sabalenka should have an easier time hitting through the wind, but Swiatek should have superior margin on her shots, and the ability go for a little less. Sabalenka will also be working with one more day of rest than Swiatek.

Sabalenka knows that a win gives her No. 1. Will that spur her to make one last push, or will it make her nervous? Swiatek says she’s less focused on the ranking right now, and that’s helped her play better tennis in the fall. In 2022, in this round, at this tournament, Sabalenka beat Swiatek in three sets. A year later, I’ll go with the more in-form player of the moment, and say she’ll turn that result around. Winner: Swiatek