2024 NFL Week 16 Saturday betting - Texans-Chiefs and Steelers ...

13 hours ago

ESPN

Dec 21, 2024, 08:30 AM ET

Week 16 of the NFL season brings us a pair of Saturday games to kick off the weekend.

C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans hit the road to face the Kansas City Chiefs in the first game of the day. Patrick Mahomes is dealing with an ankle injury but has been cleared to play. Both teams have already punched tickets to the postseason, but the Chiefs can lock up home-field advantage and a first-round bye with two more wins or a win and a Buffalo Bills loss.

The second game of the day features a rivalry showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. The Steelers have already clinched a playoff berth, but they can secure the AFC North with a win Saturday. The Ravens can secure at least a wild-card spot with a win.

There are plenty of opportunities for potential bets on the games, so check out the lines, props, analysis, trends and our picks below.

Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET

Texans at Chiefs (-3.5, 42.5)

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This spread shifted early in the week because of uncertainty around Mahomes' status. The Texans opened as slight favorites, but the line shifted toward the Chiefs as positive reports came in on the Kansas City quarterback, who has been cleared to start.

The Chiefs (13-1, 5-9 ATS) have already clinched the AFC West, but they were leapfrogged this week by the Buffalo Bills as the conference favorite earlier in the week before returning to the top spot following Thursday night's win by the Los Angeles Chargers over the Denver Broncos. It was first time the Chiefs (now +185) had not been favored to win the AFC since odds were first posted in February.

The Texans (9-5, 6-8 ATS) have also clinched their division title. The AFC South champs are +1400 to win the AFC.

Houston won at home against the Miami Dolphins last week, while Kansas City won on the road against the Cleveland Browns in a game Mahomes had to leave early because of an ankle injury.

Saturday's first game gets underway at 1 p.m. ET on NBC/Peacock.

Game lines

Spread: Chiefs -3.5 (opened Texans -1)
Moneyline: Chiefs -190, Texans +160
Over/Under: 42.5 (opened 41.5)

First-half spread: Chiefs -2.5 (-110), Texans +2.5 (-110)
Texans total points: 19.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
Chiefs total points: 22.5 (Over -125/Under -105)

Matchup predictor (according to ESPN Analytics): Chiefs 61% chance to win

The propsPassing

C.J. Stroud total passing yards: 224.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
Stroud total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +150/Under -200)
Patrick Mahomes total passing yards: 249.5 (Over +110/Under -140)
Mahomes total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +105/Under -132)

Rushing

Joe Mixon total rushing yards: 59.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
Isiah Pacheco total rushing yards: 49.5 (Over -145/Under +115)
Kareem Hunt total rushing yards: 29.5 (Over +105/Under -135)

Receiving

Nico Collins total receiving yards: 89.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Tank Dell total receiving yards: 39.5 (Over -130/Under +100)
Dalton Schultz total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Travis Kelce total receiving yards: 49.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
DeAndre Hopkins total receiving yards: 39.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Xavier Worthy total receiving yards: 39.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Noah Gray total receiving yards: 19.5 (Over -140/Under +110)

Eric Moody's picks

Patrick Mahomes UNDER 249.5 passing yards (-140)

Mahomes is set to play Saturday, but he won't be at 100%. The Chiefs would be wise to lean on the ground game, but when Mahomes does throw, he'll face a tough Texans secondary. Houston allows the eighth-fewest passing yards per game and holds opponents to a 57.7% completion rate. It's worth noting that Mahomes has gone under this line in three of his last five games.

Nico Collins OVER 89.5 receiving yards (-105)

The Chiefs defense has been tough this season, but their secondary can be inconsistent. They've already given up big games to other No. 1 receivers, including Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Drake London and Jakobi Meyers.

Collins has missed some time, but when he's on the field, he has been phenomenal, averaging 8.6 targets and 94.3 receiving yards per game. C.J. Stroud clearly trusts Collins, and this duo will need to deliver big plays to keep up with Kansas City.

Betting trends

Courtesy ESPN Research

Kansas City is 1-7 ATS in its past eight games (covered last week).

The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

The Texans are 12-2 ATS in the first half of games this season, the best mark in the NFL.

The Chiefs are 30-15-1 ATS under coach Andy Reid when the line is between +3 and -3 (25-11-1 ATS since 2015).

Kansas City is 1-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their past four home games, their longest ATS losing streak at home since 2022 (4).

Houston is 10-4 to the under this season, the highest mark in the league.

The Texans can clinch the over on their opening season win total (9.5) with a victory this week.

Steelers at Ravens (-6.5, 45.5)

Russell Wilson and the AFC North-leading Steelers (10-4, 10-4 ATS) head to Baltimore to take on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (9-5, 7-7 ATS).

Despite the current standings, the Ravens are +400 to win the AFC (+850 to win the Super Bowl) and the Steelers are +1300 (+2500 to win the Super Bowl). However, the Steelers remain the favorites to win the division (-170) over Baltimore (+130).

Pittsburgh enters Week 16 off a loss to the Eagles in Philadelphia. Baltimore fell to the Eagles two weeks ago but is coming off a win against the New York Giants.

The Steelers won 18-16 in the first matchup between these division rivals just over a month ago.

Saturday's second game is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET on FOX.

Game lines

Spread: Ravens -6.5 (opened Ravens -6.5)
Moneyline: Ravens -280, Steelers +230
Over/Under: 44.5 (opened 46.5)

First-half spread: Ravens -3.5 (-110), Steelers +3.5 (-110)
Steelers total points: 18.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Ravens total points: 25.5 (Over -120/Under -110)

Matchup predictor (according to ESPN Analytics): Ravens 66.5% chance to win

The propsPassing

Russell Wilson total passing yards: 199.5 (Over -145/Under +115)
Wilson total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +145/Under -190)
Lamar Jackson total passing yards: 224.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Jackson total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over -110/Under +120)

Rushing

Derrick Henry total rushing yards: 79.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Jackson total rushing yards: 49.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
Najee Harris total rushing yards: 44.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Jaylen Warren total rushing yards: 29.5 (Over -110/Under -120)

Receiving

Zay Flowers total receiving yards: 59.5 (Over -130/Under +100)
Mark Andrews total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Pat Freiermuth total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over -130/Under +100)
Calvin Austin III total receiving yards: 39.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
Isaiah Likely total receiving yards: 29.5 (Over +105/Under -135)

Moody's picks

Lamar Jackson OVER 224.5 passing yards (-120)

Jackson is having the best passing season of his career. Back in Week 11, he managed only 207 yards on the road against the Steelers. But this time, at home, he's set for a bounce-back performance. Jackson has cleared this mark in eight of his past 10 games while averaging nearly 30 pass attempts.

The Steelers' defense is tough, no question, but that unit has shown cracks. Both Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts have gone over this line against the Steelers over the past three weeks. Expect Jackson to rise to the occasion and deliver a strong performance.

Derrick Henry UNDER 79.5 rushing yards (+105)

Henry was a force early this season, clearing this line in six of his first seven games. But he has slowed of late, going under in four of his past seven outings.

Back in Week 11, he managed only 65 yards against the Steelers. The Pittsburgh defense is no joke. It has given up the fourth-fewest rushing yards this season and only 3.8 yards per carry on the road. This won't be an easy matchup for Henry.

Betting trends

Courtesy ESPN Research

Eight straight Steelers-Ravens meetings have gone under the total.

The Steelers have won four straight meetings (4-0 ATS) and are 8-1 in the past nine meetings (7-2 ATS).

The Steelers have won four straight meetings in Baltimore (4-0 ATS).

The Steelers' streak of seven straight outright wins as underdogs came to an end last week (tied for the second-longest streak since 1970 merger). Pittsburgh is 5-1 outright and ATS as underdogs this season.

The Steelers are 60-33-3 ATS as underdogs under Mike Tomlin (52-44 outright). Tomlin has the second-best ATS record as an underdog and second-best outright record in the Super Bowl era behind Matt LaFleur (min. 20 games as underdog). The Steelers are 35-16-2 ATS as underdogs since 2018.

Ravens games are 11-3 to the over this season, the highest over rate in the NFL. However, Ravens first-quarter unders are 10-3-1, the highest under rate in the NFL. Overs are 5-1 in the Steelers' past six road games.

The Steelers are 4-1 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

The Steelers are 10-3 ATS in their past 13 games after a loss.