Chelsea vs Brentford Odds & Predictions: Betting Value on Bees
Credit:
Visionhaus/Getty. Pictured: Conor Gallagher.
Updated:
Apr 26, 2023, 12:38 PM EDT
Chelsea host Brentford in a West London Derby on Wednesday that could decide who finishes the season in the top half of the table.
The Blues have fallen on hard times, as they’ve now dropped into the bottom half of the Premier League table and are out of the Champions League. They are waiting for the appointment of Mauricio Pochettino, but as it pertains to this match they’re still playing under Frank Lampard, who has won just one of his last 17 matches in charge with Everton and Chelsea.
Brentford are in a bad run of form at the moment as well, with their last win coming against Southampton on March 15th. The Bees are still sitting in 10th place in the table, but they have no real shot at one of the European spots. However, Thomas Frank’s side has shown that they will always give you their best effort despite the circumstances.
Despite Chelsea being on a poor finishing run, they’re drastically overvalued here against Brentford, who have been performing better in xG metrics than their foes.
Maybe Lampard doesn’t have what it takes to be manager, because he’s reverted Chelsea back to his 4-5-1 passive press out of possession, which is the same structure that Ralph Ragnick was playing at Manchester United last season. Lampard has also brought Chelsea out in four different formations in his four matches in charge, so this is truly a team without an identity or structure.
The Blues have nothing left to play for at this point other than pride. They’re not going to qualify for a European spot, they’re out of the Champions League and they’re just waiting for the appointment of Pochettino. Chelsea are now looking to offload 11 players this summer after spending an outrageous amount of money during the January transfer window, so there is a real lame duck feel around Stamford Bridge right now.
The Bees have been one of the best teams against the big six this season, putting up a +0.3 xGD. In fact, Brentford and Brighton are the only teams to have a positive xGD against the big six this season.
Brentford are a team that thrives in direct transitional opportunities and are incredibly efficient at creating high quality chances, as they’ve created the sixth-most big scoring chances in the Premier League this season. Chelsea have not been the best team defending in transition, and they have conceded the 10th-most big scoring chances.
The Bees are also one of the best teams in the Premier League at defending their penalty area. They press effectively when teams enter their final third, ranking eighth in PPDA, but they allow a lot of final third entries. However, they’re the No. 1 team in the Premier League in final third to penalty box conversion rate at 26.3% allowed.
Additionally, Brentford are a team that thrives off of set pieces, as they’re No. 1 in the Premier League in xG per set piece. Chelsea have been poor defending set pieces, ranking 16th in xGA per set piece.
Chelsea vs Brentford PickWhat do Chelsea have left to play for? They’re not getting relegated and they’re not going to finish in a European place. With all of the new players they have and other players that are going to leave the club this summer, there is real “quit” potential with this team, similar to Manchester United last season.
On top of that, Chelsea are under an interim manager that has a very poor track record and is constantly changing the formation and tactics to find the right fit. That’s quite a big problem.
I only have Chelsea projected at +124, so I like the value on Brentford +0.5 at +112.
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