Champions League permutations, scenarios: What teams need to ...

The UEFA Champions League is nearing the end of its group stage, with 16 precious places in the first knockout round up for grabs.

Manchester City are looking to go back-to-back after their triumph in last season's Champions League, potentially becoming the first English club since Nottingham Forest in 1980 to successfully defend the trophy.

The likes of Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Barcelona have also enjoyed strong group-stage campaigns and will surely be in the mix towards the sharp end of the competition.

Yet there is plenty to decide as we enter the decisive rounds of the group phase. While some teams are on the brink of progress, others, such as Manchester United, face a huge task to secure their place in the draw for the next round.

Ahead of matchday No.5, The Sporting News reviews the group stage so far and assesses what teams from each group need to qualify for the Round of 16.

MORE: Champions League Round of 16 schedule, draw & qualified teams

Champions League permutations, scenarios: What teams need to qualifyGroup A Team GP W D L GD P Bayern Munich (Q) 4 4 0 0 +5 12 FC Copenhagen 4 1 1 2 -1 4 Galatasaray 4 1 1 2 -2 4 Manchester United 4 1 0 3 -2 3

Bayern Munich are firmly in charge of proceedings, having won all their games so far to guarantee a spot in the knockouts as group winners. Copenhagen, Galatasaray and Manchester United are all in with a shot of making the Round of 16 with them.

Galatasaray potentially have the advantage, as they've already played Bayern twice. Their home game against United will be all-important, although the Turkish side, like Copenhagen, cannot qualify for the next round or be eliminated on matchday five.

If Man United beat Galatasaray and, as expected, Bayern defeat Copenhagen in Germany, Erik ten Hag's side will be on six points, with their two rivals both on four. A United win in their final game at home to Bayern would then guarantee qualification, with a draw likely good enough thanks to head-to-head record. However, United would be out if they lost to Galatasaray, with the Turkish side then potentially playing out a decider on the final matchday against Copenhagen.

Results and remaining fixtures

Date Fixture/Result Sept. 20 Galatasaray 2-2 FC Copenhagen Sept. 20 Bayern Munich 4-3 Manchester United Oct. 3 Manchester United 2-3 Galatasaray Oct. 3 FC Copenhagen 1-2 Bayern Munich Oct. 24 Galatasaray 1-3 Bayern Munich Oct. 24 Manchester United 1-0 FC Copenhagen Nov. 8 Bayern Munich 2-1 Galatasaray Nov. 8 FC Copenhagen 4-3 Manchester United Nov. 29 Galatasaray vs. Manchester United Nov. 29 Bayern Munich vs. FC Copenhagen Dec. 12 FC Copenhagen vs. Galatasaray Dec. 12 Manchester United vs. Bayern MunichGroup B Team GP W D L GD P Arsenal 4 3 0 1 +6 9 PSV 4 1 2 1 -3 5 Lens 4 1 2 1 0 5 Sevilla 4 0 2 2 -3 2

Arsenal are top of the pile but not yet assured of a knockout place. However, a single point from the Gunners' next fixture at home to Lens will be enough to reach the Round of 16, while a defeat for PSV on matchday five will send Mikel Arteta's men through regardless.

Meanwhile, Sevilla need to recover a dismal Champions League campaign with two victories to have a chance, and even then, they'd be relying on other results going their way. PSV's superior head-to-head record against Lens could be vital if they finish level on points, with the Dutch side going through in that scenario.

Results and remaining fixtures

Date Fixture/Result Sept. 20 Sevilla 1-1 Lens Sept. 20 Arsenal 4-0 PSV Oct. 3 Lens 2-1 Arsenal Oct. 3 PSV 2-2 Sevilla Oct. 24 Sevilla 1-2 Arsenal Oct. 24 Lens 1-1 PSV Nov. 8 Arsenal 2-0 Sevilla Nov. 8 PSV 1-0 Lens Nov. 29 Sevilla vs. PSV Nov. 29 Arsenal vs. Lens Dec. 12 Lens vs. Sevilla Dec. 12 PSV vs. ArsenalGroup C Team GP W D L GD P Real Madrid (Q) 4 4 0 0 +6 12 Napoli 4 2 1 1 +1 7 Braga 4 1 0 3 -4 3 Union Berlin 4 0 1 3 -3 1

Real Madrid, the 14-time European champions, are already through and will be so as group winners with another point.

MORE: Jude Bellingham's incredible stats for Real Madrid this season

Behind Madrid, Napoli are in a good position to claim second place in the group and a spot in the Round of 16. The reigning Serie A champions just need to stay ahead of Braga, so a win over Madrid on matchday five will send them through. The Portuguese side, however, can set up a showdown with Napoli if they beat Union Berlin in their next game and Napoli lose at the Santiago Bernabeu.

Union Berlin have endured a miserable campaign and not even the miracle of two wins from their final two would send them through. They're out, but they could still finish in a Europa League place if they don't lose on matchday five.

Results and remaining fixtures

Date Fixture/Result Sept. 20 Real Madrid 1-0 Union Berlin Sept. 20 Braga 1-2 Napoli Oct. 3 Union Berlin 2-3 Braga Oct. 3 Napoli 2-3 Real Madrid Oct. 24 Braga 1-2 Real Madrid Oct. 24 Union Berlin 0-1 Napoli Nov. 8 Napoli 1-1 Union Berlin Nov. 8 Real Madrid 3-0 Braga Nov. 29 Real Madrid vs. Napoli Nov. 29 Braga vs. Union Berlin Dec. 12 Napoli vs. Braga Dec. 12 Union Berlin vs. Real MadridGroup D Team GP W D L GD P Real Sociedad (Q) 4 3 1 0 +5 10 Inter Milan (Q) 4 3 1 0 +3 10 RB Salzburg 4 1 0 3 -4 3 Benfica 4 0 0 4 -6 0

Real Sociedad and Inter Milan have dominated Group D. Both are already certain of a spot in the Round of 16.

The remaining jeopardy in this group is whether Sociedad or Inter seal top spot. Their final matchday showdown at San Siro may well determine who goes through as group winners.

Salzburg and Benfica are in a battle for third and the Europa League, although that race is in the Austrian side's hands.

Results and remaining fixtures

Date Fixture/Result Sept. 20 Real Sociedad 1-1 Inter Milan Sept. 20 Benfica 0-2 RB Salzburg Oct. 3 RB Salzburg 0-2 Real Sociedad Oct. 3 Inter Milan 1-0 Benfica Oct. 24 Inter Milan 2-1 RB Salzburg Oct. 24 Benfica 0-1 Real Sociedad Nov. 8 Real Sociedad 3-1 Benfica Nov. 8 RB Salzburg 0-1 Inter Milan Nov. 29 Benfica vs. Inter Milan Nov. 29 Real Sociedad vs. RB Salzburg Dec. 12 Napoli vs. Braga Dec. 12 Inter Milan vs. Real SociedadGroup E Team GP W D L GD P Atletico Madrid 4 2 2 0 +7 8 Lazio 4 2 1 1 0 7 Feyenoord 4 2 0 2 +2 6 Celtic 4 0 1 3 -9 1

Atletico Madrid continue to register strong showings in the Champions League under Diego Simeone and are top of Group E, albeit not yet guaranteed to go through. Beating Feyenoord on matchday five will secure their knockout place.

Atletico can potentially go through as group winners with two draws from their final two fixtures given they're against second and third place. Lazio ought to beat Celtic, however, to give the Italian side the chance to potentially go top of the group; if they do defeat the Scottish side, they will be through if Feyenoord also lose to Atleti.

Celtic will be unable to go through if they don't beat Lazio. Feyenoord would qualify if they win and Lazio lose, while third place will be theirs if they are beaten by Atleti and Lazio win.

Results and remaining fixtures

Date Fixture/Result Sept. 19 Feyenoord 2-0 Celtic Sept. 19 Lazio 1-1 Atletico Oct. 4 Atletico 3-2 Feyenoord Oct. 4 Celtic 1-2 Lazio Oct. 25 Feyenoord 3-1 Lazio Oct. 25 Celtic 2-2 Atletico Nov. 7 Atletico 6-0 Celtic Nov. 7 Lazio 1-0 Feyenoord Nov. 28 Lazio vs. Celtic Nov. 28 Feyenoord vs. Atletico Dec. 13 Atletico vs. Lazio Dec. 13 Celtic vs. FeyenoordGroup F Team GP W D L GD P Borussia Dortmund 4 2 1 1 +1 7 PSG 4 2 0 2 +1 6 AC Milan 4 1 2 1 -2 5 Newcastle 4 1 1 2 0 4

Group F is another very tight one, with all four teams having the chance to reach the knockout stages if they pick up the right results in their final two games.

Borussia Dortmund are arguably surprise group leaders but can confirm a spot in the Round of 16 if they beat AC Milan at San Siro in their next game. If that happens and Paris Saint-Germain beat Newcastle United at home, Dortmund and the French champions will go through together.

Time is running out for Eddie Howe's side on their return to the Champions League. They need a result in Paris and will then back themselves to beat Milan on the final matchday, but if they lose at the Parc des Princes, they're out. Milan likely need a win over Dortmund to keep their hopes alive.

Results and remaining fixtures

Date Fixture/Result Sept. 19 Milan 0-0 Newcastle Sept. 19 PSG 2-0 Dortmund Oct. 4 Dortmund 0-0 Milan Oct. 4 Newcastle 4-1 PSG Oct. 25 PSG 3-0 Milan Oct. 25 Newcastle 0-1 Dortmund Nov. 7 Dortmund 2-0 Newcastle Nov. 7 Milan 2-1 PSG Nov. 28 PSG vs. Newcastle Nov. 28 Milan vs. Dortmund Dec. 13 Dortmund vs. PSG Dec. 13 Newcastle vs. MilanGroup G Team GP W D L GD P Manchester City (Q) 4 4 0 0 +9 12 RB Leipzig (Q) 4 3 0 1 +3 9 Red Star Belgrade 4 0 1 3 -5 1 Young Boys 4 0 1 3 -7 1

Here's how Group G looks, with the top two already sealed with two games to go.

Defending champions Manchester City are through. They just need to beat RB Leipzig in their next match to confirm their place as group winners. The German outfit are also through, but it will be a tough ask for them to top the group.

Red Star Belgrade and Young Boys are in a straight shoot-out for the Europa League spot.

Results and remaining fixtures

Date Fixture/Result Sept. 19 Young Boys 1-3 RB Leipzig Sept. 19 Man City 3-1 Red Star Belgrade Oct. 4 RB Leipzig 1-3 Man City Oct. 4 Red Star Belgrade 2-2 Young Boys Oct. 25 RB Leipzig 3-1 Red Star Belgrade Oct. 25 Young Boys 1-3 Man City Nov. 7 Man City 3-0 Young Boys Nov. 7 Red Star Belgrade 1-2 RB Leipzig Nov. 28 Man City vs. RB Leipzig Nov. 28 Young Boys vs. Red Star Belgrade Dec. 13 RB Leipzig vs. Young Boys Dec. 13 Red Star Belgrade vs. Man CityGroup H Team GP W D L GD P Barcelona 4 3 0 1 +6 9 Porto 4 3 0 1 +6 9 Shakhtar Donestsk 4 2 0 2 -1 6 Royal Antwerp 4 0 0 4 -11 0

It's a three-way battle for the top two spots in Group H, with rock-bottom Royal Antwerp out of the competition and pointless after four games.

Barcelona and Porto boast identical records after four games. Xavi's side will be through if they beat the Portuguese team, while that result will seal top spot if Shakhtar do not beat Antwerp.

Results and remaining fixtures

Date Fixture/Result Sept. 19 Barcelona 5-0 Antwerp Sept. 19 Shakhtar Donetsk 1-3 Porto Oct. 4 Antwerp 2-3 Shakhtar Donetsk Oct. 4 Porto 0-1 Barcelona Oct. 25 Barcelona 2-1 Shakhtar Donetsk Oct. 25 Antwerp 1-4 Porto Nov. 7 Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 Barcelona Nov. 7 Porto 2-0 Antwerp Nov. 28 Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Antwerp Nov. 28 Barcelona vs. Porto Dec. 13 Antwerp vs. Barcelona Dec. 13 Porto vs. Shakhtar DonetskChampions League Round of 16 lineup: Which teams have qualified?

The following teams are already qualified for the Champions League Round of 16 after four matches:

Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Real Sociedad, Inter Milan, Manchester City, RB Leipzig.

The full Round of 16 lineup will not be known until after all the groups have completed their fixtures.

When is the Champions League Round of 16 draw?

The draw for the Round of 16 will be made in Nyon, Switzerland at UEFA's headquarters on Monday, December 18, 2023 at 12 noon CET (6 a.m. ET).

The teams will be divided into group winners and second-place finishers, with each runner-up drawn against a group winner. No team can be drawn against anyone from the same country until at least the quarterfinals. Third-place finishers in each group will drop into the Europa League playoff round.