Canada inflation stalls at 3.1%, keeping rates steady - BNN Bloomberg

The rate of inflation in Canada unexpectedly remained steady last month, giving the central bank reasons to keep its hawkish tone longer while holding rates at their highest level in two decades.

The consumer price index rose by 3.1 per cent in November from a year ago, matching the increase a month earlier, Statistics Canada reported Tuesday in Ottawa. That’s faster than the median estimate of 2.9 per cent in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

On a monthly basis, the index rose 0.1 per cent, versus expectations for a decrease of 0.1 per cent.

Two key yearly inflation measures that are tracked closely by the Bank of Canada and filter out components with more volatile price fluctuations — the so-called trim and median core rates — were unchanged, averaging 3.45 per cent year-over-year. That’s faster than the 3.35 per cent pace expected by economists.

Another key measure, a three-month moving average of underlying price pressures, fell to an annualized pace of 2.45 per cent from 2.86 per cent a month earlier, according to Bloomberg calculations. It’s an important metric because Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has said policymakers are tracking it closely to understand inflation trends.

Mortgage interest costs remain the largest upside contributor to the consumer price index, with the inflation rate excluding those costs sitting at 2.2 per cent in November. Excluding shelter costs entirely, that figure is 1.9 per cent.

Still, Tuesday’s numbers represent a setback for policymakers after they held the central bank’s overnight rate steady at five per cent for the third straight meeting last month. Yet they’re unlikely to faze Macklem and his officials, who are counting on a weaker economy to help ease the pace of price gains in the coming months.

The disappointing inflation data, however, will give them no reason to talk about cuts or bring rates down any time soon. In a recent interview with BNN Bloomberg Television, Macklem said easing is expected sometime in 2024, but he needs to see several months of sustained downward momentum in core inflation first.

This is the first of two inflation reports before the Bank of Canada’s next rate decision on Jan. 24, when the majority of economists in a Bloomberg survey expect the bank to keep borrowing costs unchanged again. With the Canadian economy already showing signs of stagnation and the rate of inflation expected to slow further, many economists say rate hikes are done for this cycle.

The U.S. Federal Reserve this month also kept the interest rate unchanged for a third consecutive meeting, and gave its clearest signal yet that its hiking campaign is finished, forecasting a series of cuts next year. Macklem, however, has reiterated that it’s still too early to consider easing, a stance that’s also taken by officials at the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.

In a speech last week, Macklem said he expects inflation in Canada to be getting closer to the two per cent target by the end of next year as the effect of past interest rate increases continues to restrain spending and limit growth and employment. But he said policymakers will mull rate cuts only when they’re assured that there’s a clear path back to price stability, and warned of “bumps” along the way.

In November, services inflation held steady at 4.6 per cent. Goods inflation slightly rose by 1.4 per cent.

Major contributors to the CPI were the mortgage interest cost, with a 29.8 per cent change from the same month last year, rent and food.

Meanwhile, gasoline, telephone services and natural gas put downward pressures on the inflation rate.

Regionally, prices increased at a slower pace from a year ago compared with October in six of 10 Canadian provinces. Quebec had the highest inflation rate at 3.6 per cent.