Morning Coffee: Bills an underdog for TNF clash with Dolphins

The Buffalo Bills have heard all the noise suggesting they are no longer the team to beat in the AFC East.

Tonight, they’ll get an opportunity to silence their critics.

After opening the 2024 NFL season as the second choice to win their division at FanDuel, Buffalo enters Week 2 as a co-favourite to win the AFC East along with the Miami Dolphins.

The Bills have dominated the head-to-head series with the Dolphins in recent seasons.

Still, Miami is a 2.5-point favourite for tonight’s divisional clash on Thursday Night Football.

I kicked off Week 2 by recommending a play on the Kansas City Chiefs at -5.5 against the Cincinnati Bengals as a FanDuel Best Bet in Wednesday’s column.

I added Houston Texans -5.5 against the Chicago Bears as another FanDuel Best Bet to consider.

I’ll also recommend a traditional two-team parlay with the Chiefs and Texans to win outright at -106 as a FanDuel Best Bet to consider for Week 2.

My fourth FanDuel Best Bet for Week 2 is the Los Angeles Rams to beat the Arizona Cardinals straight up at +102.

As for Thursday Night Football, I’ve locked in a Same Game Parlay to consider as my FanDuel Best Bet for tonight’s highly anticipated AFC East clash.

This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday, Sept. 12, 2024.
 

The Bills have the potential to be one of the most fascinating teams in the league to watch this season.

They have the best quarterback in the NFL outside of Patrick Mahomes.

At the same time, there are plenty of unknowns about their offence and their defence after they were forced to make several moves in the off-season due to their salary cap situation.

That sentiment is captured in the spread for Thursday Night Football.

The Bills have won three straight head-to-head meetings with Miami, and they have swept their season series with the Dolphins in five of the last seven seasons.

Allen is 11-2 against Miami in his career, including playoffs.

That .846 win percentage is best of any quarterback with at least 10 starts against the Dolphins in NFL history.

Still, Buffalo is a short road underdog for tonight’s game.

Miami is a 2.5-point favourite at FanDuel. Per the FanDuel traders, 68 per cent of the stakes are on the Dolphins to cover the spread tonight.

Last season, Miami went 10-1 straight up when they were a favourite compared to just 1-6 when they were an underdog.

The Dolphins made a habit out of beating up on inferior opponents, but they struggled against playoff teams, including losing to the Bills by 28 and seven points in their two head-to-head meetings that ultimately decided first place in the AFC East.

I’m sure that Miami Mike McDaniel has a few surprises in store for Buffalo as a head coach that is determined to get an important win at home against a division rival.

I’m just not sure that it will be enough to beat the Bills.

For my FanDuel Best Bet, I’ll lock in a Same Game Parlay with Jaylen Waddle to register 50+ receiving yards and Khalil Shakir to finish with 25+ receiving yards at -106.

Waddle averaged a ridiculous 21.9 yards per receptions while collecting five catches for 109 yards in a Week 1 win over the Miami Dolphins.

The Bills’ Cover 2 defence remains susceptible to slot targets, especially with linebacker Matt Milano sidelined, and I expect Waddle to get plenty of snaps from the slot again tonight.

Waddle’s over/under is set at 64.5 receiving yards. I’m counting on him to get me 50-plus receiving yards as the first leg of this Same Game Parlay.

Meanwhile, Shakir had three catches for 42 yards and a touchdown on three targets in last week’s win over the Cardinals.

He’s finished with at least 31 receiving yards in six straight games for Buffalo dating back to last season, including the playoffs.

That run includes torching Miami with six catches for 105 yards on eight targets in a Week 18 win last season.

Only Keon Coleman had more pass targets for the Bills in Week 1, but the rookie could draw Jalen Ramsey, while Shakir is expected to face Kader Kohou in the slot.

I’ll lock in a Same Game Parlay with Waddle 50+ receiving yards and Shakir 25+ receiving yards at -106 as my FanDuel Best Bet for Thursday Night Football.

Have a great day, everyone!