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A series win is within reach on Wednesday night as the Toronto Blue Jays face the Milwaukee Brewers.

The pregame narrative: Toronto’s offence took a big step in the right direction on Tuesday in a 7-2 win. We’re still in believe-it-when-we-see-it mode with Jays starter Alek Manoah, though, who hasn’t been at his best all year. Manoah will start tonight, and we’re taking the Brewers +1.5 as our best bet.

Check out our top Brewers vs. Blue Jays picks for May 31.

MLB odds as of 9:55 a.m. ET on 05/31/23.

Best Bet : Brewers +1.5 (-136)

Remember Alek Manoah’s 2021 rookie season, when the Blue Jays went 16-4 in his outings? Well, we’re a long way from that now.

Toronto is 0-5 this month with Manoah on the mound, and he’s been the pitcher of record in four of those defeats. On the season, his 5.53 ERA is outperforming his 6.42 xERA, and that’s obviously not a good thing either.

The Brewers have one of the league’s weakest offences (88 wRC+, 26th in MLB), but it’s very difficult to back Manoah these days. And with pricing in mind, we’d much prefer to bank 1.5 runs with the Brewers than make a straight-up wager on the Blue Jays to win (-182).

Milwaukee is 14-12 on the run line as an underdog this year and specifically 10-7 as a road dog.

The NL Central leaders aren’t in top form right now — failing to cover this line in five of their past nine games — but then again, neither is the start they’re facing.

Bet on Milwaukee to at least keep things close against Manoah.

Key stat: Toronto is 1-7 in Manoah’s past eight starts and has failed to cover a -1.5 run line in any of those outings.

Over 5.5 runs - first five innings (-107) : Yesterday’s game hit this over in the first inning. Wouldn’t it be nice to see that happen again?

Either way, we like the chances of hitting this mid-game over with Manoah and Brewers starter Julio Teheran.

Manoah has allowed 20 runs in 22.1 innings this month, while Teheran is several years removed from being an above-replacement-level starter. He held the Giants to one run in five innings in his Milwaukee debut last Tuesday, but he also posted a 5.63 ERA in eight Triple-A starts prior to that.

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