Power outages, ferry cancellations 'guaranteed' as 'bomb cyclone ...

People on Vancouver Island should brace for power outages and ferry cancellations as a powerful low-pressure system brings strong winds for extended periods and snow to some regions starting late Tuesday, according to weather experts.

“When we look at satellite imagery, by Wednesday morning, it’s going to be one of the deepest low-pressure systems in that part of the eastern Pacific on record,” said Tyler Hamilton, a meteorologist with The Weather Network (TWN).

“You’ll feel it, there will be some impacts.”

A post on TWN’s website calls the incoming weather a “powerful bomb cyclone,” but “it won’t be one of the more devastating storms,” explains Hamilton.

That’s because the peak intensity will be about 500 kilometres off the Island’s west coast, so impacts will be similar to windstorms already experienced this month.

“And trust me, that’s as close as you’re going to want this low-pressure system,” said Hamilton in an interview with CHEK News Sunday.

“Bomb cyclone can seem dramatic and kind of some intimidating terminology, it can elicit apocalyptic images, but there’s just a lack of understanding with regards to that … it’s a specific atmospheric term, a meteorological term,” he said.

“Of course, social media can really amplify things.”

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59 hPa drop is nearly the maximum possible to squeeze out of the atmosphere southwest of Vancouver Island. Thankfully, it will stay about 500 kilometres offshore during peak intensity. #BCWind #BCStorm pic.twitter.com/Co8zxpgOCo

— 50shadesofvan.bsky.social (@50ShadesofVan) November 17, 2024

TWN says a bomb cyclone comes from the term “bombogenesis,” which is when the centre of a low-pressure system quickly decreases in pressure over a short amount of time.

Wind and snow

The “rapidly intensifying” storm will remain offshore, sparing people on land from its worst impacts, but it’s still going to be “an intense one,” says TWN.

The strong winds, forecast to hit 90 kilometres per hour in Greater Victoria and up to 100 km/h in places like the Comox Valley and Tofino, will likely last for an extended period, not just a few hours, according to Hamilton.

Things will pick up Tuesday evening and go into Wednesday.

“It could be nine, 12, 14 hours of strong, gust winds. Along the immediate coastline, it’s going to be the duration of the winds that really pick up through Tuesday evening and continue right through the day on Wednesday,” said Hamilton.

“There will be wind warnings issued associated with this.”

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Big boy snowfall rates coming to @MountWashington. Calling it, 60-90 cm of fresh snowfall through Wednesday for the resort. #BCStorm pic.twitter.com/6He05UGReJ

— 50shadesofvan.bsky.social (@50ShadesofVan) November 17, 2024

Snow is also forecast in higher terrain, though flakes may fall at lower levels.

“The freezing levels will also be very, very low,” said Hamilton.

“I’m looking at some latest model guidance that’s rolling in, and that snow level is getting uncomfortably low, so I think there could be some lower elevation snow surprises with this. Mount Washington could end up with a metre of snowfall by the time we get through Wednesday afternoon,” he said.

“Snowfall rates may approach five, 10 centimetres per hour.”

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Tofino wave-watching is going to be a spectacle late Tuesday into Wednesday. Next low will specialize in generating big ass waves. #BCStorm pic.twitter.com/CrFlYKyWW1

— 50shadesofvan.bsky.social (@50ShadesofVan) November 16, 2024

Surfers in Tofino, meanwhile, will likely see big waves.

“A low-pressure system of this magnitude … can generate an enormous amount of energy, and that translates into big surf for Tofino, eight, 10, 12 metres potentially,” said Hamilton.

READ PREVIOUS: Avalanche Canada starts daily forecasts ahead of expected snow

Ferry cancellations and power outages are “guaranteed,” said Hamilton, “because this low-pressure system is so big, it’s got a large pressure gradient with it.”

He says that means anywhere from Port Hardy down to the South Island, including Sooke and Metchosin, is at risk of outages Tuesday night, when winds are forecast to reach their peak. “But it’s going to remain very gusty throughout Wednesday.”

Hundreds of thousands of people could be in the dark.

“It could be upwards of 100,000 (Hydro customers without power), that wouldn’t surprise me, across the south coast,” said Hamilton.

Check BC Ferries and BC Hydro for updates.

South of the border

Hamilton says the incoming storm will also impact people south of the border in parts of Oregon and California, where both wind and heavy rain are forecast.

“It’s going to have an impact down towards Oregon, California, in fact. This low-pressure system will have an atmospheric river component, so while we’re talking big alpine snow for regions like Mount Washington, down towards California and Oregon, this is a pretty sizable atmospheric river, heavy rain event,” he said.

“But the wind associated with this will stretch all the way from Haida Gwaii, Prince Rupert, all the way down to sections of northern California.”

An atmospheric river is a relatively long, narrow region in the atmosphere — like rivers in the sky — that transports most of the water vapour outside of the tropics, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

‘Typical fall storm’ for Island

Hamilton adds that for those on the Island, it won’t be too out of the ordinary.

“For most folks on Vancouver Island, yeah, there’s the moderate-to-high-risk of power outages, but it will feel like a typical fall storm with the exception of how long some of the winds last, perhaps as long as 24 hours as that low-pressure system essentially is going to stall … and weaken and hangout around the northwestern tip of Vancouver Island right through the day on Wednesday and into Thursday,” he said.

“For those who are looking for storm preparation, you’ll want to get that done by Tuesday afternoon, then you’ll notice the wind start to pick up.”

— 50shadesofvan.bsky.social (@50ShadesofVan) November 17, 2024