Blue Jays vs Mariners Predictions, Picks, Odds: Kikuchi Rides Blue ...

The Seattle Mariners players and fans may not like it, but the Blue Wave will descend upon the Emerald City as the Toronto Blue Jays and their legions of West Coast fans come to town for a three-game series this weekend.

The Mariners will see a familiar face when they dig into the batter’s box on Friday night, as Toronto hands the ball to Yusei Kikuchi, who will make the first start against his former team. But it's Seattle and rookie Bryce Miller who is favored by MLB odds in this American League matchup.

Does Kikuchi have some value as a slight underdog against his former mates? I bring you my best bet, plus a same-game parlay in MLB picks and predictions Blue Jays and Mariners. 

Blue Jays vs Mariners odds Blue Jays vs Mariners predictions

I’m backing Yusei Kikuchi. Wait! Don’t leave just yet. Let me break down why I think there's some value in the Blue Jays and their left-hander. At least early on. 

Yes, Kikuchi is giving up a lot of home runs (only Lance Lynn has surrendered more), but he's striking out a fair number of batters. and most importantly, he’s cut his walks in half compared to last season. So, when he does give up those homers, they are generally solo shots and not devastating two-and-three-run bombs.

Overall, the advanced numbers tell a similar story. Kikuchi is pitching to a 4.64 expected ERA but has a respectable 1.28 WHIP while ranking in the 58th percentile in strikeout rate. And the matchup with the Mariners is a good one.

Seattle is sitting at .500 heading into this matchup, 5.5 games out of a wild card spot, and one of the reasons for that is its inconsistent performance at the plate. 

Southpaws in particular have been a problem. The Mariners rank 21st in batting average, 24th in OPS, and 19th in wRC+ when facing left-handed pitchers this season. They also have the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball vs. lefties.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays will dig in against rookie Bryce Miller. The 24-year-old right-hander has shown flashes of his potential, but he could be in a tough spot tonight.

Miller’s expected ERA sits at 4.16 and his .429 expected slugging percentage ranks in the 26th percentile. The right-hander uses his fastball nearly 70% of the time and that’s not a recipe for success vs. this Jays lineup.

Overall, the Blue Jays, despite some struggles cashing with runners in scoring position, present a difficult front. They rank fourth in batting average, ninth in OPS, and seventh in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers.

I like Kikuchi to do his thing through five innings and for the Blue Jays to hold a lead halfway through this game, impressing the not-so-road crowd. 

My best bet: Blue Jays five-inning moneyline (+101 at Sports Interaction)

Blue Jays vs Mariners same-game parlay

Tonight’s same-game parlay starts, of course, with our best bet. Next, let’s give Kikuchi a little more love by adding Over 5.5 strikeouts. 

Kikuchi has actually upped his strikeout rate since the start of June. Over his last eight starts, that K-rate is 28.2% and he's gone Over 5.5 strikeouts five times over that stretch. Tonight he gets to go against a Mariners lineup that strikes out at the second-highest rate vs. lefties in baseball.

And we’re keeping this one simple and closing this out by taking Miller Under 15.5 outs recorded. Miller doesn’t have the longest leash, averaging just 82.3 pitchers per start, and has landed below this number in five of his last seven starts.

These three cash and we walk out with a +450 payday.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Blue Jays vs Mariners moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Blue Jays opened this AL matchup as about +105 road underdogs. "Road" is a term used lightly in this series. If you have never seen the Blue Jays in Seattle, it’s something to behold. The Blue Jays fans might even outnumber the Mariners fans when all is said and done this weekend.

And Toronto has seen the early money, with the line moving to -105 and Seattle sitting in the -115 range as of Friday afternoon. With me being on the Blue Jays on the five-inning moneyline I would lean toward them on the full-game moneyline as well.

When it comes to the total, it hit the board at 8 and briefly bumped up to 8.5 before dropping back down to the opening number. At 8, I would have a very slight lean toward the Over. Toronto does a much better job against right-handed pitchers and while Kikuchi is always good to give up a home run or two.

At 8.5, I would stay away because if things get away from either team early they can hand it off to a pair of excellent bullpens. In fact, these are two of the best bullpens in baseball with Seattle ranking first in xFIP and Toronto third.

Trend to know

The Mariners have only hit the first five innings moneyline in 20 of their last 47 games for -10.60 units. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Mariners

Blue Jays vs Mariners game info Starting pitchers

Yusei Kikuchi (7-3, 4.13 ERA): Kikuchi gives up home runs (the second most in the Majors in fact), but other than that, he has been markedly better than 2023 and been a surprisingly reliable arm for the Jays, limiting opponents to two earned runs or fewer in 12 of his 19 starts.

Bryce Miller (6-3, 3.66 ERA): Miller’s rookie campaign has definitely had some ups and downs. He is coming off a strong outing against the Tigers, shutting them on five hits over five innings. But prior to that, he couldn’t make it through five innings in four of his previous six starts.

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